yoda

mmmmm... NW flow events

Hopefully to a wintry one

LWX morning AFD sounds good for severe tomorrow afternoon... would be cool to see a supercell structure again

2/0/15 on new Day 2 from SPC

Day 3 SLGT (Thursday) from SPC for the region... even mentions a chance for a few tornadoes Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 AM CDT Tue Jun 01 2021 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms are possible over a portion of the Middle Atlantic Thursday with locally strong to damaging gusts the primary threat. ...Middle Atlantic region... A belt of 40-50 kt mid-level winds will spread above the moistening pre-frontal warm sector Thursday in association with an approaching positive-tilt upper trough. While areas of clouds and a few showers may develop early in the period along the evolving warm conveyor belt, pockets of diabatic heating will contribute to 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE. Storms developing along and ahead of an approaching cold front will likely undergo a gradual intensification during the day with 35 to 40 kt effective bulk shear supporting a few organized structures. Damaging wind appears to be the primary threat, but low-level hodographs might become sufficient for a couple of tornadoes. Activity should weaken toward mid evening.

As long as there are good storms, I'm good with it. If its like 95/70 and sunny... then no

16/9/5

Thursday maybe? From this morning's AFD:

Well that new Day 1 was a bit surprising IMO... Slight risk for all... 2/15/15 Interesting disco too mentioning hail risk as well

Surprised that @weatherwiz isn't tossing the on the afternoon SPC 1730z OTLK

LWX says maybe not in updated morning AFD

So since we had TS Ana... how does that figure into things again?

Almost won the game in the 1st OT... the Islanders goalie got lucky with a save with his right pad -- didn't even see the shot/deflection, it hit his pad and rolled away. The game probably would have gone on for a while longer if Jarry hadn't had a brain fart and tried to send the puck down the center of the ice for no apparent reason

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 AM CDT Tue May 25 2021 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF OKLAHOMA...SOUTHEAST KANSAS...AND A LARGE PART OF MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely on Thursday and Thursday evening from parts of the southern Great Plains into the Ozarks and middle Mississippi Valley. Very large hail, significant severe gusts, and several tornadoes are possible. ...Lower MO Valley eastward into the OH Valley... Uncertainty remains regarding details on the evolution of an early day MCS over the lower MO Valley per recent model guidance. However, models indicate an MCV over the lower MO Valley may aid in storms persisting during the morning or possibly developing on the outflow and moving east across central MO into the mid MS Valley during the day. Strong potential instability and mid-level flow will favor organized storms. Severe gusts and a few tornadoes may be the primary threats with this activity as it eventually moves into lower OH Valley late. ...KS/OK/eastern TX Panhandle into the Ozarks... To the south of morning showers/storms over the lower MO Valley, a very moist boundary layer (15-17 g/kg lowest 100 mb mean mixing ratios) is forecast to become very to extremely unstable (2500-4500 J/kg MLCAPE) by mid afternoon south of an outflow boundary and cool front. Strong heating near the front and outflow boundary will likely be preferable locations for thunderstorm development by mid-late afternoon. Forecast soundings show ample deep-layer shear favoring organized storms (e.g., supercells) with very large CAPE in the -10 to -30 deg C layer. Large to giant hail is possible with the early discrete supercell activity. Although low-level shear is modest, a tornado risk may focus near a potential outflow boundary or perhaps where SRH may be maximized (per stronger 850-700 mb flow) during the early evening over northeast OK into southeast KS and southwest MO. While it is too early in the outlook cycle to have much confidence in the potential for a significant tornado, some environmental ingredients may overlap. By early evening, additional explosive thunderstorm development is probable near the front as storms congeal and grow upscale within the moist/instability reservoir centered over OK. A severe-wind producing MCS is possible during the evening and perhaps persisting into the overnight across OK into the western Ozark Plateau. ...TX dryline... Strong heating over west and southwest TX will contribute to very steep low-level lapse rates beneath an elevated mixed layer. Models show a mid-level disturbance initially over AZ will quickly move east into central/eastern NM by late afternoon with an associated speed max. Although most of this region will remain capped, weakening convective inhibition and appreciable boundary-layer moisture will result in a very unstable airmass (2500-3500 J/kg MLCAPE) with 50-kt west-southwesterly 250 mb flow. A couple of widely spaced supercells posing a risk for large to very large hail and severe gusts are possible during the late afternoon through early evening. ..Smith.. 05/25/2021

Day 3 looks to be the chase day -- images in this post... disco in the one below

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Tue May 25 2021 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF NEBRASKA AND KANSAS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST U.S.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are probable over parts of the central Great Plains. Severe gusts, large hail, and a couple of tornadoes are possible. ...Eastern Wyoming into the lower Missouri Valley... A mid-level shortwave trough initially over ID Wednesday morning, will move east into the Dakotas during the period. A lower-latitude belt of moderate mid-level flow is forecast to move from NM/CO into the TX Panhandle by early evening and strengthen across KS overnight. A surface low is forecast to develop over the central High Plains and develop eastward along the KS/NE border late. A residual frontal zone over the central Great Plains is forecast to advance northward into NE during the day. Increasing south-southeasterly low-level flow will advect moisture into western NE/eastern WY by mid afternoon. Increasing large-scale ascent coupled with the diurnal weakening of a capping inversion, will support widely scattered thunderstorms by late afternoon. Large to very large hail is possible in addition to severe gusts with supercellular activity. By early evening, additional storms will probably develop farther east within the moisture plume over west-central NE as a LLJ strengthens and a potential tornado risk before upscale growth occurs. There is high confidence in the eventual development of an MCS to move across southern NE and into northern KS overnight. Very steep mid-level lapse rates (8-9 deg C/km in the 700-500 mb layer) and richer moisture may aid in the development of a mature/severe MCS. Model run-to-run consistency and increased confidence yielded 30-percent wind probabilities this outlook update. Severe gusts, potentially significant, could accompany the more pronounced bowing portions of the squall line as it moves east into the lower MO Valley late. ...Southwest Kansas into west TX... A lee trough/dryline is forecast to sharpen during the day as 60s F dewpoints are forecast in the High Plains. Forecast soundings show a very unstable airmass developing by late afternoon across the TX Panhandle with 3000+ J/kg MLCAPE expected. Localized erosion of CINH will likely lead to widely scattered thunderstorms developing. Effective shear around 40 kt will favor supercells with a threat for very large hail and severe gusts. A tornadic supercell is possible, especially where temperature/dewpoint spreads are locally minimized. Increasing convective inhibition during the evening will eventually lead to a diminished severe risk by late evening.

Looks like Wednesday will be our first chance in a while to see some "severe" and have some storms... MRGL risk for some gusty to damaging winds

At least we are still playing... for now. Game 5's ending was stupid... thanks Jarry

5% tor probs up

Be careful or capitalweather will come out of hiding and take you to task for this post

Good luck tonight... prepare for OT

Interesting... they downgraded Major Hurricane Iota to a high end Cat 4 at 155mph after postseason analysis https://mobile.twitter.com/JakeCarstens/status/1394742090966372359

Chilling with $40K more like it good sir

https://www.nhl.com/news/washington-capitals-lars-eller-injury-update/c-324802404?tid=277548856