yoda

Good question. I went back to the earlier TW's from other offices and they do indeed have the word "CAPABLE" in there that the Memphis office does not. It does look really weird ETA: I know its a busy night for them... but I just tweeted them and asked.

They didnt even have TOR... POSSIBLE at all either

Still no TW

@nj2va Did I see you mention that you might go to Opening Day Nats? I might go with some family... but looking at the weather forecast, I'm casting doubt the game gets played

Um... what? Zone Forecast Product National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 439 AM EDT Fri Mar 26 2021 DCZ001-VAZ054-261200- District of Columbia-Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria- Including the cities of Washington, Arlington, Alexandria, and Falls Church 439 AM EDT Fri Mar 26 2021 ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING... .REST OF THE OVERNIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 60s. South winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent. .TODAY...Partly sunny with a chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms in the morning, then sunny in the afternoon. Highs around 80. Southwest winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph, becoming west with gusts up to 45 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent. .TONIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows around 50. Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 30 mph, diminishing to around 5 mph after midnight. .SATURDAY...Sunny. Highs in the mid 70s. Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph. .SATURDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy in the evening, then mostly cloudy with showers likely after midnight. Lows in the mid 50s. Southeast winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 60 percent. .SUNDAY...Showers with a chance of thunderstorms. Highs in the lower 70s. Chance of rain near 100 percent. .SUNDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 40s. .MONDAY...Sunny. Highs in the upper 50s. .MONDAY NIGHT...Clear. Lows in the lower 40s. .TUESDAY...Mostly sunny with a 30 percent chance of showers. Highs in the lower 60s. .TUESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of showers. Lows in the upper 40s. .WEDNESDAY...Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain and snow showers. Highs in the upper 60s. Chance of precipitation 30 percent. .WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers. Lows in the mid 40s. .THURSDAY...Partly sunny with a 50 percent chance of showers. Highs in the lower 50s.

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Fri Mar 26 2021 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM A PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS INTO THE CAROLINAS AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms are possible from the Carolinas into the Middle Atlantic region Sunday afternoon. A few strong to severe storms will also be possible from the central and southern Appalachian region into a portion of the Tennessee Valley and Southeast States. ...Mid Atlantic into the Carolinas... An intense low-level jet will shift from the southern and central Appalachians into the Carolinas and Mid Atlantic during the day in association with a progressive northern-stream shortwave trough. A warm front will move northward through the Mid Atlantic during the day prior to the arrival of a cold front. Upper 50s to low 60s F dewpoints will advect through the warm sector contributing to modest instability as the surface layer warms with up to 1000 J/kg MLCAPE possible. Thunderstorms are expected to develop along and just ahead of the cold front as it advances into this region during the late afternoon and early evening. This activity will be embedded within strong deep layer wind profiles that will support bowing structures as well as a few supercells. Damaging wind will be the main threats, but a few tornadoes and some hail will also be possible before the front moves offshore during the evening.

oh hello there hatching.... on Day 3 Day 3 Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area SIG SEVERE 59,374 15,628,657 Charlotte, NC...Washington, DC...Virginia Beach, VA...Raleigh, NC...Norfolk, VA...

And we begin

FWIW, 00z NAM shows intrigue for Sunday afternoon (18z to 21z soundings).... with some showing up at DCA/EZF

ENH risk with 10 percent TOR in W TN -- includes Memphis and is literally knocking on Nashville's door Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0105 AM CDT Fri Mar 26 2021 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A PORTION OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible Saturday across the lower Mississippi through Tennessee Valley regions. All hazards are possible including large hail, damaging wind and tornadoes. Other severe storms are possible across a portion of the Midwest with isolated damaging wind and large hail the main threats. ...Lower Mississippi through Tennessee Valley regions... Early Saturday morning a warm front will likely extend across the central or northern portions of the Gulf Coast states. It is likely that elevated thunderstorms will be in progress within a broad warm advection regime north of this boundary, mainly across a portion of the TN Valley. Some of this activity could pose a risk for mainly hail before shifting northeast and weakening with time. Under the influence of a broad fetch of southwesterly low-level winds, richer moisture with surface dewpoints in the low to mid 60s F will advect northward into this region contributing to a corridor of moderate instability with up to 1500 J/kg MLCAPE along and south of the warm front. Additional storms are expected develop during the evening within an evolving warm advection regime accompanying a strengthening southwesterly low-level jet. Strengthening vertical wind profiles associated with an approaching northern-stream upper trough will favor organized storms including supercells. Some of these storms will be rooted close enough to the surface to pose a risk for tornadoes given expected favorable low-level hodographs. Otherwise damaging wind and large hail will also be possible. A cold front accompanying the northern stream shortwave trough will approach this region from the northwest and will contribute to the development of additional storms overnight, likely consolidating into lines and clusters with the primary severe threat eventually transitioning to isolated damaging wind.

Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 1232 AM EDT Fri Mar 26 2021 GAC063-113-260445- /O.CON.KFFC.TO.W.0015.000000T0000Z-210326T0445Z/ Fayette GA-Clayton GA- 1232 AM EDT Fri Mar 26 2021 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1245 AM EDT FOR NORTHEASTERN FAYETTE AND WEST CENTRAL CLAYTON COUNTIES... At 1232 AM EDT, a confirmed tornado was located over Sandy Creek, or near Fayetteville, moving northeast at 45 mph. HAZARD...Damaging tornado and ping pong ball size hail. SOURCE...Radar confirmed tornado. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. Locations impacted include... Fayetteville, Jonesboro, Riverdale and Irondale. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Tornadoes are extremely difficult to see and confirm at night. Do not wait to see or hear the tornado. TAKE COVER NOW!

Yikes

I am guessing NWS Peachtree transferred?

STILL TORE Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 1222 AM EDT Fri Mar 26 2021 GAC063-077-113-121-260445- /O.CON.KFFC.TO.W.0015.000000T0000Z-210326T0445Z/ Fayette GA-Coweta GA-Fulton GA-Clayton GA- 1222 AM EDT Fri Mar 26 2021 ...TORNADO EMERGENCY FOR NORTH PEACHTREE CITY AND FAYETTEVILLE... ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1245 AM EDT FOR NORTHERN FAYETTE...NORTHEASTERN COWETA...SOUTH CENTRAL FULTON AND WEST CENTRAL CLAYTON COUNTIES... At 1221 AM EDT, a confirmed large and destructive tornado was located over Thomas Crossroads, or 9 miles east of Newnan, moving east at 40 mph. TORNADO EMERGENCY for NORTH PEACHTREE CITY AND FAYETTEVILLE. This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW! HAZARD...Deadly tornado. SOURCE...Radar confirmed tornado. IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes, businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete destruction is possible. Locations impacted include... Fayetteville, Jonesboro, Peachtree City, Union City, Riverdale, Fairburn, Tyrone, Palmetto, Cannongate, Sandy Creek, Irondale and Thomas Crossroads.

Um... hopefully its going to weaken before visiting Peachtree

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 1214 AM EDT Fri Mar 26 2021 ...TORNADO EMERGENCY FOR NEWNAN... The National Weather Service in Peachtree City has issued a * Tornado Warning for... North central Coweta County in west central Georgia... * Until 100 AM EDT. * At 1214 AM EDT, a confirmed large and destructive tornado was observed over Thomas Crossroads, or near Newnan, moving northeast at 50 mph. TORNADO EMERGENCY for NEWNAN. This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW! HAZARD...Deadly tornado. SOURCE...Radar confirmed tornado. IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes, businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete destruction is possible. * Locations impacted include... Newnan and Madras.

Not sure if posted earlier... at least 5 dead in Calhoun County AL https://www.yahoo.com/gma/violent-tornado-threat-bears-down-153200072.html

moving NE at 55mph?!?!?! holy cr*p

TORNADO EMERGENCY FOR NEWMAN

Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 1157 PM EDT Thu Mar 25 2021 GAC077-260415- /O.CON.KFFC.TO.W.0014.000000T0000Z-210326T0415Z/ Coweta GA- 1157 PM EDT Thu Mar 25 2021 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1215 AM EDT FOR NORTHWESTERN COWETA COUNTY... At 1157 PM EDT, a confirmed large and extremely dangerous tornado was located near Powers Crossroads, or 8 miles southwest of Newnan, moving east at 45 mph. This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW! HAZARD...Damaging tornado. SOURCE...Radar confirmed tornado. IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes, businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete destruction is possible. Locations impacted include... Newnan, Moreland, East Newnan, Arnco-Sargent, Powers Crossroads, Handy and Madras.

Not much change with SPC's 2000 OTLK -- only real major change was removal of the 45% contour on the wind map

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0258.html

yay snow tv lol