yoda

Bet this will be the year we get snow on December 5th... the forum gets excited... then we get slapped back to reality

Looks like an active pattern and chance for daily severe starting tomorrow reading the morning AFD

Isn't @frd out in Delaware?

a bit further NW actually

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1113 PM EDT Thu Jul 8 2021 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Tornado Warning for... East central St. Marys County in southern Maryland... Southern Calvert County in southern Maryland... * Until 1145 PM EDT. * At 1112 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located near Patuxent River Naval Air Station, or near Lexington Park, moving northwest at 30 mph. HAZARD...Tornado. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...For those in the direct path of a tornado touchdown, flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Damage to roofs, siding, and windows may occur. Mobile homes may be damaged or destroyed. Tree damage is likely. * Locations impacted include... Lexington Park, Cuckold Creek, Town Creek, California, Lusby, Patuxent River Naval Air Station, Drum Point and Park Hall. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. Heavy rainfall may hide this tornado. Do not wait to see or hear the tornado. TAKE COVER NOW!

Flood Watch National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 218 PM EDT Thu Jul 8 2021 DCZ001-090230- /O.EXA.KLWX.FF.A.0005.210708T2100Z-210709T1200Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ District of Columbia- Including the cities of Washington 218 PM EDT Thu Jul 8 2021 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING... The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has expanded the * Flash Flood Watch to include a portion of DC, including the following : District of Columbia. * Through Friday morning. * Thunderstorms have been moving across the DC metro area over the past hour, and look to continue doing so for the next couple of hours. Additionally, steadier rainfall may arrive this evening into tonight in association with Tropical Storm Elsa, which could lead to some isolated instances of flash flooding, especially in poor drainage areas. * Moderate to heavy rainfall over a short time period may cause streams and creeks to quickly rise out of their banks, potentially leading to instances of flash flooding, especially in urban and poor drainage areas.

Power just flickered here

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 236 PM EDT Thu Jul 8 2021 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Baltimore City in northern Maryland... Northwestern Anne Arundel County in central Maryland... Southeastern Howard County in central Maryland... Southeastern Baltimore County in northern Maryland... Northeastern Prince Georges County in central Maryland... * Until 315 PM EDT. * At 236 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Odenton, or near Crofton, moving northeast at 25 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. * Locations impacted include... Baltimore, Columbia, Bowie, Severn, Pikesville, Crofton, Middle River, Greenbelt, Elkridge, Riviera Beach, Baltimore-Washington Airport, Sparrows Point, Back River, Glen Burnie, Dundalk, Towson, Catonsville, Essex, Woodlawn and Severna Park.

Poured here for about 10 minutes and a few rumbles of thunder

@high risk @Kmlwx SPC has nothing on their radar for tomorrow looking at the new Day 2 for our region... but morning LWX AFD seems to suggest otherwise on Friday [Quote] SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Any impacts from Elsa should be quickly winding down as we continue into the early morning hours Friday as the storm races into New England territory. Expect Friday to be somewhat of a mixed bag as guidance is split on solutions in terms of remnant showers and total cloud cover. The consensus is that Friday morning looks to remain mostly dry, aside from the chance for a few hit-or-miss showers across the mountains. Conditions will remain humid however with dew points in the 70s. Friday afternoon looks potentially concerning as the front approaches from the west. The combination of 1000-1500 J/Kg CAPE, 30-40kt 0-6Km shear, and strong forcing mechanism would yield the potential for developing thunderstorms, some of which may be severe in nature. Storm severity will be highly dependent on cloud cover as if clouds hold strong throughout much of the morning and early afternoon hours, could limit instability. However, expect some subsidence to counteract this as Elsa continues to track northeastward. [/quote]

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 301 AM EDT Tue Jul 6 2021 MDZ003>006-008-011-507-508-WVZ051>053-061515- /O.NEW.KLWX.HT.Y.0002.210706T1500Z-210707T0000Z/ Washington-Frederick MD-Carroll-Northern Baltimore-Cecil- Southern Baltimore-Northwest Harford-Southeast Harford-Morgan- Berkeley-Jefferson- Including the cities of Hagerstown, Frederick, Ballenger Creek, Eldersburg, Westminster, Reisterstown, Cockeysville, Elkton, Baltimore, Jarrettsville, Aberdeen, Paw Paw, Martinsburg, Charles Town, and Shepherdstown 301 AM EDT Tue Jul 6 2021 ...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING... * WHAT...Heat index values around 100 degrees west of the Catoctin Mountains and around 105 degrees east of the Catoctin Mountains. * WHERE...The eastern panhandle of West Virginia, north-central, and northeastern Maryland including Baltimore. * WHEN...From 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening. * IMPACTS...Hot temperatures and high humidity may cause heat illnesses to occur.

Tropical Storm Elsa Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 500 PM EDT Sun Jul 04 2021 Elsa continues to exhibit some well-defined convective banding features over the northern and eastern portions of the circulation. Dvorak current intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are 45 and 55 kt respectively,so the advisory intensity remains at 50 kt. Although the cirrus-level outflow over the area looks fairly impressive, the SHIPS output diagnoses about 20 kt of vertical shear over the cyclone, which may be inhibiting strengthening. Another negative factor could be blockage of the low-level inflow by the land masses surrounding the cyclone. The storm has turned toward the northwest, and the initial motion estimate is now 310/12 kt. There is little change to the track forecast reasoning from the previous advisory package. Elsa should move around the western periphery of a mid-level subtropical high pressure area during the next 3 days or so. Thereafter, the system should accelerate northward to northeastward over the eastern United States and the northwest Atlantic. No significant changes have been made to the NHC track forecast, which remains close to the simple and correct model consensus solutions. Some strengthening could occur as the storm approaches the south coast of Cuba and although not explicitly shown in the official forecast, Elsa could strengthen to near 60 kt before landfall in that country. Over the eastern Gulf of Mexico, southwesterly shear is expected to limit strengthening. The official intensity forecast remains on the high side of the numerical model guidance. Key Messages: 1. Widespread heavy rain will continue to affect portions of Jamaica tonight where isolated to scattered flash flooding and mudslides will be possible. Heavy rain will then impact the Cayman Islands and Cuba through Monday resulting in significant flooding and mudslides over Cuba. As Elsa approaches the Florida Keys, Florida Peninsula, and coastal Georgia Monday through Wednesday, heavy rainfall may result in isolated flash, urban, and minor river flooding. 2. Tropical storm conditions and a dangerous storm surge are expected with hurricane conditions possible in portions of eastern Cuba tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of central and western Cuba tonight and Monday, and will spread into portions of the Florida Keys by late Monday. 3. Tropical Storm and Surge Surge Watches are in effect for portions of the west coast of the Florida peninsula where tropical storm conditions and a dangerous storm surge are possible beginning as early as Monday night and continuing into Tuesday. 4. There is a risk of tropical storm conditions, storm surge, and rainfall impacts along the remainder of the Florida Peninsula Tuesday night through Wednesday and the coasts of Georgia and the Carolinas Wednesday and Thursday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/2100Z 19.8N 77.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 05/0600Z 21.1N 79.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 05/1800Z 22.7N 81.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 36H 06/0600Z 24.2N 82.4W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER 48H 06/1800Z 25.8N 83.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 07/0600Z 27.9N 83.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 07/1800Z 30.5N 82.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 96H 08/1800Z 34.9N 78.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 120H 09/1800Z 40.0N 69.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER $$ Forecaster Pasch

Tropical Storm Elsa Advisory Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 500 PM EDT Sun Jul 04 2021 ...ELSA EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS CUBA ON MONDAY... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.8N 77.9W ABOUT 15 MI...20 KM W OF CABO CRUZ CUBA ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM S OF CAMAGUEY CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Watch along the west coast of Florida has been extended northward to the Anclote River, including Tampa Bay. A Storm Surge Watch has been issued for the west coast of Florida from Bonita Beach northward to the Suwannee River, including Tampa Bay.

Lol aliens

Sounds like we are done for a while

Um... apparently now if you read the discussion

Tropical Storm Elsa Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 1100 PM EDT Sat Jul 03 2021 Elsa is undergoing a convective bursting pattern the past few hours, with some cold overshooting tops of -90 deg C east and northeast of the center. However, data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate that this convective increase has not translated into an intensity increase. To the contrary, 5000-ft flight-level and SFMR surface winds have decreased while the central pressure has increased to 1004 mb. Based on the latest recon data, the intensity has been lowered to 55 kt. The aircraft has now climbed to 10,000 ft for safety reasons and will be penetrating the area of intense convection to check for stronger winds there. The initial motion estimate is now 295/15 kt. Elsa is forecast to gradually move around the western periphery of a deep-layer subtropical ridge over the next 96 hours, accompanied by an additional decrease in forward speed. The latest model guidance has continued to converge along the previous advisory track, with the corrected-consensus models HCCA and FSSE nearly on top of each other. The TCVA simple consensus model is also similar to the HCCA and FSSE models. However, out of respect for the slightly more westward GFS and GFS-ensemble models, which have performed admirably thus far with Elsa, the new official forecast lies a tad west of the aforementioned consensus models and lies nearly on top of the previous advisory track. After interacting with the mountainous terrain of southwestern Haiti, which could have caused some disruption in the low-level field despite the center remaining offshore, little change in intensity is expected tonight. However, some slight restrengthening could occur by Sunday afternoon as Elsa approaches the south-central coast of Cuba where the sea-surface temperatures are quite warm at more than 30 deg C and the water is deep. Weakening is expected after the cyclone moves across west-central Cuba, followed again by some slight restrengthening after Elsa emerges over the warm Gulf Stream in the Straits of Florida. Westerly vertical wind shear increasing to near 20 kt by 96 hours should prevent any significant strengthening from occurring. Elsa should become a very asymmetrical tropical cyclone late on day 3 and on day 4 with most of the heavy rain and strongest winds displaced along and to the east of the forecast track. The initial intensity is similar to the previous advisory and closely follows the simple and corrected consensus models. Given the remaining uncertainty in the track forecast and the degree of land interaction with Hispaniola and Cuba, users are urged to factor in some of this uncertainty. For reference, average NHC track errors at days 3 and 4 are 125 miles and 150 miles, respectively. The average NHC intensity errors are around 15 mph for both days 3 and 4. Key Messages: 1. Widespread heavy rain will move across southern Haiti and Jamaica tonight into Sunday where isolated to scattered flash flooding and mudslides will be possible. Heavy rain will then impact the Cayman Islands and Cuba Sunday into Monday resulting in significant flooding and mudslides over Cuba. As Elsa approaches the Florida Keys and Florida Peninsula early next week, isolated flash flooding and minor river flooding will be possible. 2. Tropical storm conditions and dangerous storm surge are expected with hurricane conditions possible in portions of eastern Cuba beginning early Sunday, with tropical storm conditions possible in central and western Cuba Sunday night and Monday. 3. There is an increasing risk of tropical storm conditions, storm surge, and rainfall impacts beginning Monday in the Florida Keys and the southern Florida Peninsula, and a Tropical Storm Watch is now in effect for portions of the Florida Keys. This risk will spread northward along the Florida Peninsula through Wednesday and reach the coasts of Georgia and the Carolinas Wednesday and Thursday, however uncertainty in the forecast remains larger than usual due to Elsa's potential interaction with the islands of Hispaniola and Cuba. Interests elsewhere in Florida and along the southeast U.S. coast should monitor Elsa's progress and updates to the forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0300Z 17.9N 75.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 04/1200Z 19.2N 77.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 05/0000Z 20.9N 79.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 05/1200Z 22.5N 81.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 48H 06/0000Z 24.1N 82.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER 60H 06/1200Z 26.0N 82.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 07/0000Z 28.0N 83.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 08/0000Z 32.7N 81.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 120H 09/0000Z 37.7N 74.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER $$ Forecaster Stewart/Papin

11pm map does not have Elsa returning to hurricane status at all

Weaker still at 11 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Elsa Advisory Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 1100 PM EDT Sat Jul 03 2021 ...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS ELSA A LITTLE WEAKER AND MOVING SLOWER BETWEEN HAITI AND JAMAICA... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.9N 75.3W ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM ESE OF MONTEGO BAY JAMAICA ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM SE OF CABO CRUZ MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES

So did @BlizzardNole get hit today?

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 330...RESENT NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 445 PM EDT WED JUN 30 2021 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 330 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EDT FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS MDC001-013-021-043-010200- /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0330.210630T2045Z-210701T0200Z/ MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEGANY CARROLL FREDERICK WASHINGTON PAC001-041-043-055-071-075-099-107-133-010200- /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0330.210630T2045Z-210701T0200Z/ PA . PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS CUMBERLAND DAUPHIN FRANKLIN LANCASTER LEBANON PERRY SCHUYLKILL YORK VAC043-069-840-010200- /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0330.210630T2045Z-210701T0200Z/ VA . VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLARKE FREDERICK VIRGINIA INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE WINCHESTER WVC003-027-037-057-065-010200- /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0330.210630T2045Z-210701T0200Z/ WV . WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BERKELEY HAMPSHIRE JEFFERSON MINERAL MORGAN ATTN...WFO...LWX...CTP...

@Kmlwx @high risk @Eskimo Joe Watch up for parts of MD and NW VA till 10pm

NHC has 95L at 10 percent... 97L at cherry for Day 5 Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Wed Jun 30 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. A broad area of low pressure, associated with a tropical wave, is located about midway between the west coast of Africa and the Windward Islands. This system is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms that continues to show some signs of organization. Environmental conditions appear generally favorable for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next few days while the system moves west-northwestward at about 20 mph. Interests in the Windward and Leeward Islands should closely monitor this system as it will likely be moving through that region on Friday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. 2. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association with a tropical wave located a couple of hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles. Significant development of this system is unlikely while it moves quickly westward to west-northwestward at 20 to 25 mph, passing through the Lesser Antilles today and then across the eastern and central Caribbean Sea later this week. Regardless of development, this system could bring locally heavy rainfall to portions of the Lesser Antilles during the next couple of days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent. Forecaster Pasch

Surprised @weatherwiz hasn't been posting about it lol

I have 10k right now after rebuying in when it went below 20 cents. Dumped everything when it went below 35 cents earlier though