yoda

Wakefield issuing WWAs

Gaithersburg had 0.4" at 900am... 3 SSW Damascus 1.0" per CO-OP around same time

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 855 AM EST Sat Jan 17 2026 MDZ005-006-503-505-507-171700- /O.EXB.KLWX.WW.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-260117T1700Z/ Carroll-Northern Baltimore-Northwest Montgomery-Northwest Howard- Northwest Harford- 855 AM EST Sat Jan 17 2026 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST TODAY... * WHAT...Snow. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 2 inches. * WHERE...Northwest Howard, Northwest Montgomery, Carroll, Northern Baltimore, and Northwest Harford Counties. * WHEN...Until noon EST today. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Periods of moderate to locally heavy snow are resulting in roadways becoming snow covered and hazardous. Expect snow to quickly taper off around midday.

You maim me good sir

Are we going to eventually have a part 2? This thread will be at 200 pages by end of the weekend

Really?

@mappy I'll let you do the honor of showing him ArcGIS

Looks like the "potential" starts next Thursday per 12z GFS

Warm up the @stormtracker bus?

I actually like the new format. I think its better. Seems like its a new thing across the WFOs

Borrowing this from Will in the SNE thread

Fr fr this Euro run be bussin at the end. It did bring the rizz no cap.

Its a 1-2" for some... mostly Sunday morning

I'll take me some 12z RGEM

I dunno... maybe this is more for SNE... but Will said this just now

Lol as expected

So by this reasoning, Lamar is not a stud?

Hmmm

Yes, @Midlo Snow Maker still posts in our forum

New thread for the new year for Saturday? @Kmlwx Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CST Tue Jan 06 2026 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...D4/Friday: Lower MS Valley vicinity... A mid/upper-level shortwave trough initially over the southern Rockies is forecast to take on a positive tilt as it moves eastward on Friday, as a northern-stream shortwave trough digs from the Canadian Prairies toward the Upper Great Lakes. Some guidance has trended weaker and farther south with a surface low developing near the lower MS Valley by Friday evening, though a relatively large warm sector is still expected to be in place through most of the period. Scattered to widespread storm development is expected from parts of east TX into the lower MS Valley, with sufficient deep-layer shear for organized convection and some attendant severe threat. Some adjustments to the 15% area have been made, based on guidance trends regarding surface low placement and the northward extent of the favorable warm sector. ...D5/Saturday: Parts of the East... Uncertainty regarding the synoptic pattern increases by D5/Saturday, with varying solutions regarding the extent of mid/upper-level trough amplification across the eastern CONUS, and the strength of the related surface low. Guidance generally agrees that buoyancy will be limited across much of the warm sector on Saturday. However, any organized convection that develops Friday night may persist into Saturday morning across parts of the Southeast, with some potential for an isolated severe threat. Farther north, the strongest solutions (such as the 00Z deterministic ECMWF) depict notable intensification of low/midlevel flow from the Ohio Valley into the Mid Atlantic, which could result in some damaging-wind potential with any low-topped convection along or ahead of an advancing cold front. ..Dean.. 01/06/2026

He mentioned GEFS and you posted GEPS

LWX AFD from this afternoon on the "threat" Meanwhile, stalled front to the south will try to lift back to the north Friday evening into Saturday. A wave of low pressure looks to traverse this boundary Saturday morning with a secondary wave of low pressure lifting north and east of the Deep South toward the VA/NC coast Saturday night into Sunday. With residual high pressure to the north and east, cold air will be available for some wintry precipitation to occur across portions of the forecast area Saturday afternoon into Saturday night. Main question is if phasing can occur, which remains highly uncertain. Right now, the highest confidence for wintry wx would be along and south of I-66/US-50 and east of the Blue Ridge mountains. We`ll continue to monitor this threat to see if the northward trend amongst the guidance continues. If so, some travel disruptions are possible late Saturday afternoon into Saturday night, especially on elevated and untreated surfaces. More at weather.gov/lwx/winter.

Because there is no chance of any snow after this for the next 10 days or so?

For tonight into early tomorrow (outside the WSW/WWA areas) afternoon disco from LWX Most hi-res guidance continues to hint at the potential for snow showers or squalls with some impacts north of I-66/US-50. Greatest potential in true snow squall warning criteria (winds > 25 mph, VSBY < 1/4 mile, and road temps below freezing) are favored in the Cumberland to Frederick, MD area. Will continue to monitor. Further south, a dry boundary layer is in place that gets drier overnight with FROPA. This is partially observed in the difference between the composite reflectivity in hi-res model guidance and the 1km AGL reflectivity. SFC Td depressions in most hi-res guidance >10F pre-frontal, and in the 15-20F range with FROPA. What this is getting at is it likely snows east of the mountains, but may not be true snow squall criteria. The confidence for accumulation east of the mountains still remains in question.

Just a little gusty at around 80mph