yoda

BULLETIN Hurricane Fiona Advisory Number 36 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022 500 AM AST Fri Sep 23 2022 ...CENTER OF FIONA PASSING NORTHWEST OF BERMUDA WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THE ISLAND... ...HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN NOVA SCOTIA BY EARLY SATURDAY... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...33.8N 66.8W ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM NW OF BERMUDA ABOUT 765 MI...1230 KM SSW OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...41 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...936 MB...27.64 INCHES

Uh that would be a no on the 00z model suite tonight

Okay, who was playing around with the KCHO ASOS earlier?

Landfall near or just SE of KTLH

Hmmm... weakens 15 to 20mb from 168 to 174

Headed to the Big Bend of FL at 168

Actually looks like it's going to make landfall just north of Tampa at 228

Indeed... luckily skirts by as it heads north... but very close

Looks like Big Bend of FL

Entering E GOM at 180

Smacking extreme western Cuba at 168 at 985mb per TT

I believe @OSUmetstud is in NF? Or nearby...

Yup... and 850mb has 45 to 50kt winds too at 270 lol... so some wind as well

06z GFS FWIW quick recurve out to sea this run

00z CMC is... weird. Follows 00z GFS in that it moves due north after reaching SE Bahamas... then at Day 7, takes a NW jog toward NC... then Day 8 says nope and starts to head NE but is near HSE at 204... then an abrupt right turn out to sea as a s/w comes barrelling into the Great Lakes

00z GFS OP this run gets Fiona into the SE Bahamas then moves due north... takes a leisurely pace north Days 7-10... could be a Bermuda threat

11pm track has Fiona making landfall and moving through the DR and Haiti.... that would certainly cause some issues

18z GFS OP next weekend would be a bit breezy lol

Last advisory on Earl issued at 5pm... so now we wait... for awhile

12z NAM keeps the majority of the rain (i.e. >.5") west of the i95 corridor with the heaviest along the BR and parts of the i81 corridor 12z 3km NAM is more scattershot with its heavier rain totals... one in PW county, along the BR, out near Winchester, and in NE MD

Those types of storms, thankfully, are rare though

Yes... but that usually means a mess of a system or just tropical storm stuff