yoda

Lol WTNT44 KNHC 200231 TCDAT4 Potential Tropical Cyclone Four Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042022 1000 PM CDT Fri Aug 19 2022 Based on the current infrared and microwave satellite data, the system does not appear to have a closed surface circulation yet and is therefore still not a tropical cyclone. The mid-level center is estimated to be located in the southwestern portion of the deep convection. Since there has been little change in organization after the Air Force reconnaissance left the system, the initial intensity is held at 30 kt based on that data. The disturbance is moving northwestward at 12 kt. This general motion is expected to continue until landfall Saturday night in northeastern Mexico as the system is steered by a ridge to its northeast. The official track forecast is very similar to the previous advisory prediction and closest to the correct consensus model guidance. Slight strengthening of the system is expected before landfall. Global models predict the vertical wind shear to increase in the next day or so, which should limit future organization and strengthening of the disturbance. The NHC intensity forecast continues to show a peak of 40 kt before the system reaches the coast. It is worth noting that this intensity prediction is slightly above the guidance envelope. After moving inland, the system is expected to weaken rapidly and dissipate within 48 hours near the Texas/Mexico border. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Tropical storm conditions are expected across portions of northeastern Mexico and southern Texas on Saturday, where a Tropical Storm Warning has been issued. 2. Rains from the disturbance may begin to affect the eastern coast of Mexico, from northern Veracruz across parts of Tamaulipas and Nuevo Leon, during the day Saturday. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. Heavy rain may also move to the far south Texas coast through Saturday night, producing local flash, urban, and small stream flood impacts. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0300Z 21.8N 95.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 20/1200Z 23.2N 96.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 24H 21/0000Z 25.1N 97.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 36H 21/1200Z 26.9N 99.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Bucci/Cangialosi

As long as you bring the snow this winter -- if you get to come back closer to home -- and not the Texas heat, then fine

Looks like it is? I am looking at it on Radarscope... unless its a bunch of birds?

I thought it was the GFS that always had fantasy snowstorms? Or was it the CMC? Anyway, hope you are enjoying it

Been raining for a while here... probably at least past 6 hours

I wonder if that doesn't weaken some by the time it gets here

If we could have this during winter... but with snow instead of cold rain, that'd be great

Sigh PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 548 PM EDT WED AUG 10 2022 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0547 PM FLOOD 1 NNE GREENBELT 39.01N 76.88W 08/10/2022 PRINCE GEORGES MD EMERGENCY MNGR MULTIPLE 911 CALLS BEING RECEIVED FOR WATER RESCUES && EVENT NUMBER LWX2204808

Numerous water rescues ongoing in Greenbelt

Ugh... power flickered twice... but still on for now

Stuff down in Fauquier County seems to be moving NE towards DC metro... that could cause some trouble if it maintains strength and track

I need @Bob ChiII and his WD index I think it was

The AFD seemed a bit ominous for this evening The biggest threat today by far is the risk for flash flooding. Slow storm motions, high PWATs, high CAPE, a stalled frontal boundary, and parallel flow along that boundary are all favorable for a flash flood risk. Training and slow-moving storms are expected this afternoon. Most areas could see an inch or two of rain, but isolated higher amounts (potentially much higher) are possible where training occurs. Rainfall rates of 2-3"/hr will be commonplace this afternoon, but it will be a matter of who sees those rates for the extended periods that determines the maximum flash flood potential. The Flood Watch was expanded to include the rest of the NW tier of the forecast area. Definitely want to watch how this line over eastern WV orients itself as it pushes eastward. Should this lay out east to west over the metros, could be looking at a big issue this evening for those areas. Some positive thoughts though are that there seems to be just enough DCAPE at this time to ever so slowly push storms east and south as they form new updrafts along their own weak outflows. So hopefully this will be just enough to get storms through quick enough to not be a major issue.

Flood Watch National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 307 AM EDT Wed Aug 10 2022 VAZ025>027-029-030-503-504-507-508-WVZ505-506-101515- /O.NEW.KLWX.FA.A.0018.220810T1600Z-220811T0100Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Augusta-Rockingham-Shenandoah-Page-Warren-Western Highland-Eastern Highland-Northern Virginia Blue Ridge-Central Virginia Blue Ridge- Western Pendleton-Eastern Pendleton- Including the cities of Brandywine, Hightown, Woodstock, Stuarts Draft, Front Royal, Staunton, Strasburg, Wintergreen, Ruddle, Sugar Grove, Shenandoah, Monterey, Oak Flat, Luray, New Market, Riverton, Stanley, Harrisonburg, Franklin, Waynesboro, Mount Jackson, and Big Meadows 307 AM EDT Wed Aug 10 2022 ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING... * WHAT...Flash flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible. * WHERE...Portions of Virginia and eastern West Virginia, including the following areas: in Virginia, Augusta, Central Virginia Blue Ridge, Eastern Highland, Northern Virginia Blue Ridge, Page, Rockingham, Shenandoah, Warren and Western Highland. In eastern West Virginia, Eastern Pendleton and Western Pendleton. * WHEN...From Noon EDT today through this evening. * IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - Showers and numerous thunderstorms are expected this afternoon into this evening. Rainfall amounts will average around 1 to 1.5 inches across the area, but locally higher amounts of 2 to 4 inches are likely and much of that may fall in a one to two hour timeframe. Heavy rain in short periods of time may cause creeks and streams to rapidly rise out of their banks along with potential flash flooding in urban areas. - Visit http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood for flood safety information.

Flood Watch National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 307 AM EDT Wed Aug 10 2022 DCZ001-MDZ011-013-014-016>018-503>506-VAZ036>040-050>057-501-502-505- 506-101515- /O.NEW.KLWX.FA.A.0018.220810T1800Z-220811T0300Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ District of Columbia-Southern Baltimore-Prince Georges-Anne Arundel- Charles-St. Marys-Calvert-Northwest Montgomery-Central and Southeast Montgomery-Northwest Howard-Central and Southeast Howard-Nelson- Albemarle-Greene-Madison-Rappahannock-Orange-Culpeper-Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park-Fairfax-Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Stafford-Spotsylvania-King George-Northern Fauquier-Southern Fauquier-Western Loudoun-Eastern Loudoun- Including the cities of Stanardsville, Laurel, Rockville, Annapolis, Franconia, Arlington, Centreville, Germantown, Ellicott City, Baltimore, Chesapeake Beach, Montclair, North Beach, Damascus, Odenton, Dale City, Prince Frederick, Severna Park, Purcellville, St. Charles, Woodbridge, Glen Burnie, Dahlgren, Madison, Silver Spring, Falmouth, Columbia, Lexington Park, Gaithersburg, Greenbelt, Alexandria, California, Dunkirk, Lusby, Orange, College Park, Suitland-Silver Hill, Severn, Lake Ridge, Waldorf, Ashburn, Bowie, Bethesda, Reston, Culpeper, Manassas, Arnold, Herndon, McLean, Lisbon, Chantilly, Huntingtown, Fredericksburg, Lovingston, Clinton, Warrenton, Washington, Camp Springs, Falls Church, Annandale, Leesburg, Gordonsville, Turnbull, Charlottesville, Sterling, and South Gate 307 AM EDT Wed Aug 10 2022 ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING... * WHAT...Flash flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible. * WHERE...Portions of DC, Maryland and Virginia, including the following areas: in DC, District of Columbia. In Maryland, Anne Arundel, Calvert, Central and Southeast Howard, Central and Southeast Montgomery, Charles, Northwest Howard, Northwest Montgomery, Prince Georges, Southern Baltimore and St. Marys. In Virginia, Albemarle, Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria, Culpeper, Eastern Loudoun, Fairfax, Greene, King George, Madison, Nelson, Northern Fauquier, Orange, Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park, Rappahannock, Southern Fauquier, Spotsylvania, Stafford and Western Loudoun. * WHEN...From 2 PM EDT this afternoon through this evening. * IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - Showers and numerous thunderstorms are expected later this afternoon through this evening. Rainfall amounts will average around 1 to 1.5 inches across the area, but locally higher amounts of 2 to 4 inches are likely and much of that may fall in a one to two hour timeframe. Heavy rain in short periods of time may cause creeks and streams to rapidly rise out of their banks along with potential flash flooding in urban areas. - Visit http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood for flood safety information.

There they are for some of us

And it fizzled to sprinkles by the time it got here lol

Love late night storms... especially hearing the booming thunder as it comes closer

FDK get smacked PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 820 PM EDT TUE AUG 09 2022 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0747 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 SW FREDERICK 39.41N 77.44W 08/09/2022 FREDERICK MD 911 CALL CENTER NUMEROUS TREES AND WIRES BLEW DOWN ON THE WEST SIDE OF FREDERICK. SEVERAL TREES AND WIRES BLEW DOWN KNOCKING OVER A COUPLE OF POLES AND CAUSING A TRANSFORMER FIRE ON HOLLYBERRY WAY. WIRES WERE REPORTED DOWN IN THE 900 BLOCK OF US-40 WEST PATRICK STREET. && EVENT NUMBER LWX2204784

trying not to @ someone who hasn't posted in a little while after that comment

get any rain?

Should be getting close to you now