No, I don't think you're jaded but I do think you're realistic. I think we are in a new era where the exceptional global heat that has accumulated is causing old norms to either not exist or be highly unpredictable. People with any knowledge of weather hedge their bets and forecasts since even the best are often wrong - so I hope my thinking is wrong too. What gives me a glimmer hope is during the intense drought out west (I lived in CA for 9 years), naysayers predicted that the Sierra would just dry up, blow away and burn down - and their snow season was a thing of the past. And then last year happened. Maybe we will be able to say the same but year after year after year of no winter to speak of is the evidence all slapping us in the face.