katabatic

We are totally into this. My last chase with @dailylurker the forecast for New York changed and I barged in his room at 3 AM telling him LET'S GO! The band forecast shifted 15 miles! Thank god you have the patience of a saint. @MillvilleWx you are so very welcome. Not only are you a kick ass guy, but you're also pretty damn good at explaining the nuances of weather to me. @dailylurker that squall was unbelievable. I posted a short video to the Garrett County Facebook page (one of them) and within a few weeks, I had over 4,000 views. I'm planning on this winter to be an overall torch but since we travel so well together, it ain't gunna matter much. We will hunt down the best snows and pile in the truck and say LFG! @NorthArlington101 you're welcome any time as well! It was awesome when you visited Garrett County that the two walks we took, it was snowing quite heavily on both. @WxWatcher007 you too! I'd love to meet up and with any luck, be buried up to our waist in LES. I am hoping we have more folks from our area chasing instead of armchair complaining that it's 40 and rainy and missed yet another storm chance.

Pretty impressive monthly totals. 3.27" here in Garrett County so a lot lower than most folks but we've done pretty well overall this season. Looks like our hottest day occurred in May of all things - 89.2 looks to be the best summer had to offer this year imby.

This is interesting. Meteorology is essentially the study of heat transfer. Winds increase in the winter, in large part, because the temperature difference increases between the mid and upper latitudes. We all know that. So, if we have 3.4 averaging 80 and NPac 52 (just for the sake of argument), what would the heat transfer difference cause the jet stream to do if the NPac was 45? In some ways that 7 degrees equals more stored heat than we could ever imagine, decreasing winds. But in the grand scheme of things, is it a proverbial drop in the bucket? Winters suck here because we're almost always close enough to be in the game yet we rarely score a goal. That's numbingly frustrating to us weather fans (in no small part why @dailylurker and I rented a damn house at the apex of the Tug). But I digress...you said (and I am an admirer of you) that you don't think the STJ would be materially impacted due to the increased temperature of the 'blob'. So, I'd love to figure out a way to calculate at what delta would the reduction in the temperature contrast between ocean latitudes cause the STJ to peter out, nullifying the best part of El Nino......and are we close?

You've pointed out something that I've had a question about for a long time. We all know that the NPac is way warmer than normal. But, does that matter (wrt our weather around here)? If the average ocean temp is say, 45, and we're now seeing 50-52, is that enough of a jolt to alter the Nino climactic expectations? I know there are other variables out there, but focusing specifically on ocean warmth, is the 'blob' warm enough (NOT just comparing to average, but total warmth) to cause what we expect (warm northern tier, cooler southern tier, dry Ohio Valley, juiced STJ etc.) to be materially altered? This may be too simplistic but if I go from 17 degrees to 24, that doesn't alter much. If I go from 28 degrees to 35, we have a whole different world.

Had a narrow but intense line move through here earlier. Dropped 0.96" in about 45 minutes. High was only 78 but still felt like Florida. I've had 8 of my in-laws from Ecuador visiting for the last 2 weeks and they're like "does it always rain this much" and I'm like nope...you guys just got lucky.

I am very intrigued about this winter. There is so much oceanic heat wrt normal (what the hell does that mean anymore) that anything is possible. I've seen more than one long range forecast that depicts areas N of 40 deg being at or even a little below normal due to the wobbly 'polar vortex'. I think that's a long shot but by using the Tug as a base of operations, all else being equal, it's certainly positions us better than most. I did a chase up in Canada two years ago and it was a lot of fun and there are some serious bay effect areas SE of James/Hudson Bay. Ironically, Canada's plowing suuuuucks, so I have what amounts to seat belts for my tires. It's designed to be a bit more pleasant to drive on than traditional chains while still providing traction. I also purchased a Bluetti that will essentially turn my truck cabin into a living room for up to 3 days so @dailylurker and I can be completely mobile. If it's 38 and rain in New York, welp, filler up and head north.

@dailylurker and I rented a cabin close to the apex of the Tug Hill from December - February. Elevation will be critical, even in upstate NY so hedging our bets for the winter - my hope is we will be buried from start to finish.

I hear ya. I'm in Myrtle Beach and our weather looks shitty tomorrow thru Wednesday. Hoping it's wrong or at least it's not an all day rainer.

Yesterday held in the 60s for all 24 hours. That had to be close to a record low max for a day without precipitation, even out here. Hope you have a fun weekend!

A beautiful evening to see a free Fleetwood Mac knockoff band at Wisp. 70 with a breeze - heading to the upper 40s tonight. Yes please and thank you.

Fortunately, a flush hit this morning. 1.46" which way more than doubled what's been delivered so far this month. Let's see how well we recover today.

Like the fact we had 0.15" with our FFW? Beautiful day, sunshine after lunch and temps in the low 70s. Near perfect day for mid summer.

After days of relentless rain, 0.17" total.

The fireworks display at Wisp was awesome. Had a few sprinkles ~8PM which dropped the temp into the mid 60s so it was quite refreshing. What was super strange was after we got back home and turned on the Cubs game, Wrigley Field looked like the London Fog of 1952 - even delaying the game due to fireworks smoke. I used to live within walking distance of Wrigley and don't remember fireworks let alone those kind of after effects (I realize the wind was calm, etc.). Hit 88 yesterday and so, never reached 90 this past week.

Made it to 89 again. Guess the mid-70s dews kept the temp in check.

89.2 with dews all day 72-74. Should reach 90 for the first time this year tomorrow. Deep Creek Lake is packed - the Oakland Wal Mart's shelves look like a grocery store in DC when a big snowstorm is forecast (not that anyone remembers when that occurred). My poor little window units are all panting and out of breath. At least it's beautiful when the sun sets (the Broadford Lake fireworks show tomorrow and the biggie at Wisp on the 4th should be spectacular so long as we don't get thunderstorms).

It was groooosssss today. 86-87/73-74 all afternoon. Very high DPs for this area. Also, looking solid Thursday for our first 90+ here.

Yes! I have a cousin that lives outside of Anaconda, MT and he said he got a pretty good dump. Kinda reminds me of the Unabomber so we don't talk often but still the (almost) July snowstorm is pretty damn neat.

In case anyone was wondering.

DCA: 98, 101, 100, 98 BWI: 99, 102, 103, 100 IAD: 97, 102, 101, 100 SBY: 97, 98, 101, 99 RIC: 99, 102, 104, 100 Total rain: 0.00"

I frequently drive to Richmond and noticed the same thing. We've done fairly well in this overall pattern - certainly a change from the past 2 summers (at least so far) which were bone dry. Beautiful, crisp morning today with a low of 47 (34 at CNWR). Hope to get some more rain this weekend before we rev up next week.

70/59 with a nice breeze and the sun returned. Measured 0.54" yesterday with 3.55" for the month so far.

A true, old-fashioned soaker this morning. The radar, to my delight, looks like a traffic signal. So far, 1.29" of rain has fallen with ongoing storm intensity of around an inch per hour. With the wind advisory kicking in soon, I hope any tree damage is minimal.

Sun is out after 0.16" of rain. I hit 70F dews only a few times per year and this afternoon it reached nearly 72F which, iirc, is the second highest since moving here in '22.

The amount of rain is rather pitiful with this line moving through (0.15") but did have a 66 MPH gust that did some minor tree damage.