Tatamy

I feel bad for you. I looks like it has taken most of the morning for snow just to move NW across the Delaware River to a point a few miles NW of I95. Even there visibility looks to be about a mile.

This has more to do with what is going on in the mid levels. The wind off the ocean is not currently producing any snow along the north Jersey coast.

Yeah it has made its way past the airport up to the Girard Point Bridge but not to Center City.

The farthest north location along the Jersey shore where there is currently snow falling is Seaside Park.

Dry air in the mid levels looks to keep accumulating snow well south of the city. I just checked traffic cams along I95 in the Philly area- nada. In NJ the line that delineates snow from no snow looks to run roughly along I295 up to route 70 and then east and ENE along route 70 to the shore. The extent of the radar returns north of there indicates the degree of dry air in the mid levels.

I wish you folks along the south shore and Brooklyn and SI good luck with this one. I think that while 1-2” is possible there I think a car topper is most likely. I think folks on the Jersey shore south of Long Branch and east of Islip on the island stand the best chance of seeing 1-3” with higher amounts further down the Jersey shore.

Actually the change from the preceding run is about 20-25 miles.

A lot of us will be smoking cirrus…

Mt. Holly issues WSW for much of DE and southernmost NJ including Atlantic and Cape May counties for up to 4-6” of snow.

The mean brings 9” to Cape May.

On the 18z GEFS two members bring significant snows as far north as NYC while an additional one reaches LI

Road trip to Cape May tomorrow night?

FWIW the 12z GEFS had 5 members with good to big hits to the north and west of I95 and 2 members with hits from the city S and E. Another member covered the whole area. I backed out the output from what I believe will be a non event Sunday night for this forum. This is from the Dupage website which shows outputs from 20 members.

GFS goes from a cutter at 0z to an inland runner at 6z to a DT special at 12z for the end of week potential event. These types of outputs reinforce the argument about how far out these OP runs should go.

I enjoyed reading his short term AFDs back in those days especially when a Coastal storm was in the offing. It was required reading for me first thing in the morning to read those AM Taunton AFDs.

I experienced this storm on LI. 30” fell where I was on the north shore of the island. What I remember about it was the number of hours that the visibility was consistently 1/4 mile or less. They had to use payloaders through the duration of the storm to clear the streets . I did not see something like that until 2016 when we had the same amount where I live in eastern PA. Visibility wise that one was not as spectacular however it did the job.

Yes it did.

Those were lean years back in the 70s and 80s however you did get an unexpected snowstorm on 12/6/81 that dumped 16-24” from Boston to Providence.

I was around for that one (PD1). I was living on the north shore of LI at the time. We did get snow for that- 7” worth with more in NYC and Jersey. The kicker for that one was a large part of LI Sound was frozen over. Like east facing coastal areas in NE we would get a bump in accumulations with storms that have a low level flow from the E and NE. With the frozen coastal waters our totals were cut in addition to what resulted from the synoptic setup.

You don’t have to wait until spring in order to obtain produce from your garden. I have lettuce and parsley growing in mine right now. They are quite hardy and will withstand cold temperatures. I have been down to 17 with calm winds and our plants are fine.

For those following this event on the models there have been large differences in the placement of the expected snow accumulations. In any case at this time there is steady snow falling in places primarily to the south and west of Harrisburg and State College. Radar shows the area of heavier precip in that area. The echoes to the north and east of there are primarily virga. What is interesting right now is moderate to heavy snow coming down in a burst in some places to the SW of Harrisburg along I81. In particular I just saw a visibility of about 1/4 mile near Chambersburg.

Light Snow/Graupel mix here. 0.5” new. 28*

0.12” overnight. No ice here however all surfaces are wet. 32*

Light drizzle here with 33.

Two days in a row with temps in the teens. 18 yesterday and 19 this morning.