Tatamy
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Everything posted by Tatamy
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Precip has changed over to a mix of sleet/snow/freezing rain. Snow total 3 1/2”. 25/24 -
Still snowing here in Bethlehem Twp in Northampton Cty. 3 1/2” new. 24/23
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3” OTG 24/23. Moderate snow 3/8 mile visibility.
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On radar it looks like the snow/ sleet line runs roughly along 202 in NJ and PA and then east between 22 and 287
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It is my understanding that there is ice covering at least parts of Great South Bay. If that is true that might help you folks out on the island to hold on to the cold air for a little longer.
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Choose the size of the image and select small.
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I have moderate snow down here in Bethlehem Twp, PA with almost 1” new. Models have been dropping hints for days regarding the dynamics associated with this system. I would definitely agree that there is positive bust potential in the I80 corridor in NW NJ and NE PA. This is shaping up to be a very interesting night out here and places further north.
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I know- what could have been- but not this time…
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The Coastal Front is set up from the Richmond area to near Dover, DE to about 10 miles NW of Atlantic City and then up along and west of the Garden State Pkwy along the Jersey shore and just south of the south shore of LI. This is the leading edge of the warm air at the surface that the powerful 850mb jet is going to force up to the north and west and change everyone over to rain (if you don’t start as rain). In the case of the Poconos and the I84 corridor this would be sleet and freezing rain. This is situated as projected by the models at this time.
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Snowing in Reading, PA and the leading edge is just SW of Allentown. Snow is just beginning near the west side of Philadelphia.
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I checked the webcam out there. Just the SC deck coming in off of the ocean. No flurries there at this time.
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Was digging into the models and in looking at the HRRR from 12z it seems to be slightly less intense with the strength of the 850mb jet as compared to the NAM. The result is more snow in inland locations. The NAM has 1-2” vs 3-6” on the HRRR. Any thoughts on this?
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How about Hurricane Force Wind Watches for the near shore and offshore waters as well.
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Very true. The upside of this is that this won’t last over multiple tidal cycles. If it did it would be a much more serious issue. For coastal areas I think that the biggest concern will be strong winds leading to power outages.
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My rule of thumb has been if we are dealing with a potential winter storm that you think can bring mixing / taint issues then you want to see a mid level jet from a warm source region of at least 20 - 30 mph to ensure that changeover happens. I will be the first to admit that this is a general statement and is oversimplifying the atmospheric processes involved however I seen this play out time and again. In any case the 850mb jet we are seeing will be from the SE at up to 90 mph for a few hours Monday morning.
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I saw that graphic a short time ago as well. Folks in the western part of the state have been progged to get a big dumping on the models and still are on the globals. The NAM doesn’t play favorites does it??
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I am in eastern PA, 80 miles west of NYC. I am figuring on 2-3 hours of snow then a quick flip to sleet/ice/rain in that order. That 850mb jet means business and the NAM / RGEM seems to be leading the way with this feature. As depicted that jet will be whistling over our heads at Cat 2 hurricane strength early Monday morning. The source region will be from out over the Atlantic so it won’t be bringing cold air with it either.
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I was thinking of the ski resort at Hunter Mtn. which is much higher. KMPO where the airport observing site is at 1886ft (from the Mt. Holly website). The town itself is a couple of hundred feet lower.
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If there is an upside here the forward movement of the storm system is such that it is not likely to cause flooding through multiple tidal cycles.
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Your caution is well advised however the poster did not want to travel more than 100 miles from the NYC area. As others have noted this one definitely has the look of being mainly a snow producer for areas in central and western PA and NY state.
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The 18z Euro has run. The overall presentation of expected snow amounts is similar however the 850mb low does track very slightly further west on this run.
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I would take Hunter over MPO in a heartbeat. Hunter is close to 4000’ above MSL while MPO is 2000’. Track will be key of course.
