Tatamy

You actually don’t have to travel to Canada to get pictures with 2” of ice. I took this on 1/16/78 at my then home in East Northport.

I did the same a long time ago.

I will clarify that I meant no ensemble support for the specific outcome shown on the day 9 OP run. Your synopsis clearly states the tall order that would be required in order for this outcome to actually occur.

Day 9 on an OP run without ensemble support.

This event had mixed snow/rain or white rain for much of its duration in many coastal areas.

NWS has issued a Winter Storm Warning for Martha’s Vineyard through Sunday morning for 4-8”.

That’s from a band originating off of LI Sound and crossing over the north fork. This is a view from East Hampton on the south fork. Shows you the hit or miss nature of these features. You can see a band out over the ocean to the south.

Martha’s Vineyard- Five Corners

Recent data output from my station on Fire Island

Down to 6 with a WC of -10

Current conditions at a station that I follow on Block Island

Snow is tapering off. Coating on the ground. 24•

Moderate snow. 31•

I am continuing to see moderate snow with reduced visibility’s in a lot of places just to my west and southwest in the Allentown area. Accumulations in these areas are mainly on the order of a coating. 33• with light snow.

Arctic front has passed my location. Down to 34• with snow flurries.

I am actually watching what looks like a wall of snow approaching my location.

Snow is now falling moderately to heavily from Allentown and south and west. I am seeing visibilities of 1/2 mile or less in places on webcams. Temperature starting to fall steadily here - down to 38•. You folks in northern NJ and SE NY need to pay attention to this.

Rain has changed to snow from Allentown and points south and west from there. There are actually some heavy snow squalls not too far to the west of Allentown now. 40• here currently.

Recent gust at my station on Fire Island to 47 mph.

0z HRRR shows the cold front reaching the Delaware River around 10:30 - 11AM. It makes it to NYC about noon.

Freezing rain 31•

Cloudy and 31•

This burst of snow for Friday has been showing up for days now in the GEFS and continues to do so.

Would the same be said for the 0z GEFS mean? Some interesting outputs on some of the members.

This is a great post. As someone who came of age in the 70s and 80s it amazes me how people and weenies in particular have come to expect major winter events each year. As you stated during the period from 69-93 there only three storms that produced over a foot in NYC. Back in those days storms that were forecast to produce 4-8” were a big deal and if you had one of those in a winter that was a lot. This region has a long term climate history and it is not one where big events (MECS/SECS/HECS) are common. White Christmases are the exception, not the rule here. We have had a good run in recent years with these big events however long term climatology dictates that this not likely to continue.