Tatamy
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Everything posted by Tatamy
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12z UKMET was colder for upstate NY and interior NE.
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12z GFS has another snow event for interior locations. The 12z CMC with warming depicted between 700-800mb and a cold layer below would result in up to 10-12 hours of sleet/ice. It then goes to rain. This could result in sleet accumulations of up to 1-2”. This could have very nasty implications for travel later in the week in the interior.
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Some of the short range guidance has bumped up snowfall amounts in parts of NW NJ and LI as of late. This is the 14z HRRR
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Not a lot going on generally between Harrisburg and Allentown as of now. Those places that had a coating earlier have mostly melted off. In the high country on I81 to the NE of Harrisburg just a coating with freezing drizzle as well. Even on I81 just a coating at the rest stop north of Hazleton.
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Snow depth off of the 12K NAM
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This ties into the analysis on the 3K just posted by Bluewave.
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According to the 12z NAM it looks like the place to be for this event is LI Sound. Places along the north shore of Suffolk and the north fork would do good as well.
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White rain
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Nice burst of moderate snow passing through. 32•
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Light wet snow falling here with a coating on colder surfaces.
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If you are following this thread and have a weather station check your dew points. If they have increased in a short period of time this evening and your skies are now overcast check your conditions outside if you are along or north of I78. I am getting flurries here and I am seeing them reported on LI as well with the onshore flow.
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Your R/S line for this event and others especially this time of year typically runs along LI Sound from east to west near the CT coast. You’re not the only one that gets to worry about R/S lines however. If you’re in NJ it’s typically along I80. In PA it’s Blue Mountain. In fact out here Blue Mountain is every bit the imposing geological barrier and guarantor of the R/S line as LI Sound is for you.
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There is already a thread set up for the event for Sunday and Monday.
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I was 2’ at 06z; ZIP at 12z; and now back to 15”. Gotta love this consistency.
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The GEFS has been showing these hits for a few runs now. The problem has been with the OP.
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I agree with Ant about the GFS in terms of consistency. As a PA guy I will take the 06z solution- knowing full well that there will be something totally different at 12z.
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The 06z run with the IVT feature is certainly interesting to look at. The GEFS has been continuing to show the event even while the OP went AWOL.
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What’s not to like about this morning’s 06z GFS / GEFS?
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GEFS provides a much different story than the OP. Some big runs on some of the members for next week.
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Look at the ensemble data.
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GEFS 12z 162 hours GEFS 06z 168 hours
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12z CMC with an intense tucked in solution for 12/16.
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I saw that also. It does not get a lot of weight for this purpose however its solution is interesting.
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I actually went to chase this little event that night at a higher elevation and this is what I saw. I was convinced that I was not going to see anything at my place. It turned out that I didn’t have to. In any case it lasted less than 15 minutes.
