Tatamy

31/27 with light freezing drizzle. Light icing on some untreated surfaces.

30/25 with light freezing rain.

Classic CAD setup this morning with a light southerly wind starting to warm the lowest layers of the atmosphere especially along the coast with colder temperatures inland. Temps along the south shore of the island have risen into the mid 30s while along the north shore they are in the lower 30s. Temps in the city are in the low to mid 30s. Just inland they are in the upper 20s. WWA is up for places just to the north and west where temperatures are below freezing. I am in the upper 20s with freezing rain as shown on radar almost on my doorstep. Temps in western PA to the west of the spine of the Appalachians (a line drawn roughly from north to south from the State College area) are above freezing with rain. This all aligns with the model projections from yesterday. This looks to be a nasty day on the highways away from the coast with this setup.

Take a drive into NYC tomorrow morning and let us know how you make out. Maybe the models will be wrong.

This would be a big wind producer as modeled.

Looks like your forecast from several days ago panned out for those areas situated where the band set up. Nice work!

Snow has gotten underway here.

Snow has reached the Reading, PA area. Visibility looks to drop quickly with onset.

Last two runs of the Euro at 0z and 6z look like this as well.

Indications from the shorter term models show that the best chance for banding to set up would be from central/southern NJ across LI and on into CT and eastern NE.

18z Euro would be 3-5” for most with 4-7” in the parts of central and southern NJ that jackpotted on Monday. Eastern NE jackpots with this run.

21z RAP is a weenie run for the area.

Steady light snow at Ocean Beach now.

Steady light snow at the Ponquogue Bridge in Hampton Bays. Visibility under a mile out there. I also just checked Tobay Beach and it looks like the snow is just offshore.

Flurries in the air at Ocean Beach.

There is no snow along the south shore as of now. I just checked webcams in Ocean Beach and East Hampton. From the sky conditions I saw I think if it does reach the south shore it would get to Fire Island first.

Light snow has reached up to Asbury Park on the north Jersey coast.

The snow that potentially will fall later in eastern Suffolk will be related more to what is happening on the synoptic scale. Assuming it happens I would agree that there could be ocean enhancement. As of now I like the chances for snow to fall on the island, especially along the south shore.

Snowing in Point Pleasant, NJ. That would be almost to exit 98 on the GSP.

I feel bad for you. I looks like it has taken most of the morning for snow just to move NW across the Delaware River to a point a few miles NW of I95. Even there visibility looks to be about a mile.

This has more to do with what is going on in the mid levels. The wind off the ocean is not currently producing any snow along the north Jersey coast.

Yeah it has made its way past the airport up to the Girard Point Bridge but not to Center City.

The farthest north location along the Jersey shore where there is currently snow falling is Seaside Park.

Dry air in the mid levels looks to keep accumulating snow well south of the city. I just checked traffic cams along I95 in the Philly area- nada. In NJ the line that delineates snow from no snow looks to run roughly along I295 up to route 70 and then east and ENE along route 70 to the shore. The extent of the radar returns north of there indicates the degree of dry air in the mid levels.

I wish you folks along the south shore and Brooklyn and SI good luck with this one. I think that while 1-2” is possible there I think a car topper is most likely. I think folks on the Jersey shore south of Long Branch and east of Islip on the island stand the best chance of seeing 1-3” with higher amounts further down the Jersey shore.