Tatamy
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Everything posted by Tatamy
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The top map with the higher amounts to the north was from the College of Dupage website. On their website they state that the data presented is downloaded directly from the NCEI servers. It uses a 10:1 ratio to calculate snow amounts. We all know that these clown maps have their limitations and that actual ratios that occur will vary from place to place. WRT to SV I will leave that up to you to determine the validity of the data presented. -
What is most interesting is how the model is struggling to resolve the UVVs that are taking place across eastern PA and NW NJ in the area of heaviest precip. Very dynamic system.
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Precip type with this one will have to do with temperatures at all levels of the atmosphere, not just 850mb. If you picked up somewhere that temperatures at or below 0 at 850mb means that you are golden for snow - you are badly mistaken. There will be CAD inland initially with this storm and that means that precip that starts as snow will go to sleet and or ice before going to rain in many places. As currently modeled the coast will be primarily rain (as of now). As we all know the forecasts for this storm have been subject to big changes with each model run. To determine precip type for your location you would need to check a sounding for your specific location.
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12z GFS at 117 hrs. Again this would result in tropical storm force winds along coastal areas. Period of highest risk would be Monday.
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12z Euro at 120 hrs. If this verifies you will have tropical storm force winds along the Jersey shore, NY harbor, and along the south shore of LI.
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Here is the ensemble mean snowfall (GEFS) estimates for this system for 6z and 12z. 6z 12z
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Go to the state that you are interested in and lookup the DOT website for it. It will provide a link to highway webcams on the major roads.
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I my original post I was referring to areas well inland away from the coast. As modeled there is a fair amount of sleet and freezing rain associated with this storm in those places. Strongly agree that the strong easterly or SE flow will kill chances for freezing/frozen precip near the coast.
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Ensemble mean now has the axis of heaviest snows up through the central appalachians. OP is really leading the way on this one.
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This is morphing from a coastal to an inland runner to an apps runner - and it’s not done yet. The part that remains somewhat interesting is the CAD ahead of the storm east of the spine of the appalachians. Whether this continues and to what degree is an open question.
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If you look at the boundary level on the 12z Euro at 10m you will have a stiff easterly flow across LI and along the Jersey shore. Ocean temps are in the upper 40s which is 5-8 degrees above normal for this time of the year. That will not hold the cold air in those coastal areas. The ageostrophic flow which will be present just inland with the vector you described will hold that cold air at least for a time there. I do not see massive front snow to the coast with this run. In any case it’s all hypothetical at this point anyways.
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On the 12z GEFS only 3 of 20 members were solid inland runners. The others brought heavy snows to the coast and inland or there was no storm at all. Way too soon to rule out anything.
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That is what I was alluding to yesterday. There have been consistent hints in the ensembles about the potential built into this pattern. It’s a matter of the models figuring this all out. Now that the lead system (coastal going OTS late in the week) is getting out of the way they are starting to move closer towards a solution.
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I have been seeing the same thing on traffic cams across NE PA for the past couple of hours. It is a quick hitter but it’s fierce as it moves through with very low visibilities.
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These are low topped. The radar doesn’t show the full extent of these due to their distance from the sites at Fort Dix and BNL. I was looking at white outs on traffic cams back in NE PA along I80 mean while the radar showed virtually nothing.
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FWIW while everyone is watching the threat for next week don’t forget the snow showers and squalls moving down from the N and NW across the Poconos, NW NJ , and SE NY at this time. They are starting to move in to the range of local radars. They are producing locally heavy bursts of snow as they move through.
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Yes it does. The squalls moving into the Scranton area are quite potent right now.
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A peak at a webcam along I81 north of Scranton shows this activity is still very healthy. Visibility at this location (MM206) looked to be 1/4 mile or less. Radar up there looks good. Latest run of the HRRR (01z) indicates this activity could drop up to 1/2” across NE PA and far NW NJ and adjacent SE NY down towards the Cuomo Bridge.
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As shown above the models do not have a handle on what will be happening next weekend. These are the 12z outputs from the GEFS.
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