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Tatamy

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Everything posted by Tatamy

  1. Tatamy
    Total opposite out here in Bethlehem PA. Full sun, hardly a cloud in the sky, and calm winds.
  2. Tatamy
    The NAM led the way east a few runs ago. Now the 06z NAM says I don’t think so. This track has been closely related to the intensity of the storm. In the 5am advisory the NHC noted that the shear is finally beginning to relax. I am guessing that the NAM is seeing that and the resulting greater intensity potential and hence the move back west. If the storm does intensify today there could be some potentially threatening model runs for LI and the remainder of the region. In any case the strongest winds with this event will be felt along the south shore and the east end particularly along the barrier beaches. At 5am the NHC discontinued the hurricane watch for most of SE MA including Cape Cod. They reiterate that conditions will be favorable for strengthening for the next 12-18 hours. Hurricane conditions are expected to begin late tonight or Sunday for parts of LI and CT. The next recon is due into the storm at 1200 UTC.
  3. Tatamy
    Makes landfall in the Hamptons.
  4. Tatamy
    Not entirely correct. Wind will be more of a factor on eastern LI. All coastal areas will be be at some degree of risk from storm surge impacts. NWS is expecting up to a 2’ foot storm surge along the south shore of Nassau to 3’ out in the Hamptons. This is why they have issued a storm surge watch.
  5. Tatamy
    06z Euro goes into southern RI.
  6. Tatamy
    It was at 915 mb at 45 hours while east of OC. Winds with that type of pressure would make this a Cat 5. Good thing it’s fantasy.
  7. Tatamy
    Wow. I am thinking we may be looking at a 100 mph hurricane east of the Virginia coast during the day on Saturday. Full moon aligns with high tide Sunday morning along the coast. I hope for the sake of the Metro area that if it hooks to the north and west it does so towards New England.
  8. Tatamy
    18z Euro comes further west. Landfall near Buzzards Bay and tracks NNW towards Worcester.
  9. Tatamy
    Hurricane watches for SE NE and Tropical Storm watches for LI to start.
  10. Tatamy
    18z HWRF is further east near Cape Cod while the 18z HMON landfalls in the Hamptons.
  11. Tatamy
    18z GFS is about 50 miles west of the 12z run with landfall in Buzzards Bay.
  12. Tatamy
    I am thinking anywhere between the Hamptons and Buzzards Bay. The wild card is greater than expected intensification Friday and Saturday and the potential for a hook to the left tucking it in closer to the coast.
  13. Tatamy
    That is why the Ukmet run surprises me. Once the data from first flight was uploaded the GFS went east. Maybe the Ukmet will go back east tonight. Let’s wait on the ensembles.
  14. Tatamy
    12z Euro continues to be east and weaker. 12z HWRF/HMON are aimed at the vicinity of New Bedford,MA. 12z Ukmet is west. Too early to write this one off.
  15. Tatamy
    Haven’t they flown the Gulfstream jet out off the mid Atlantic coast to sample the upper levels? I think they were actually going to send it out again.
  16. Tatamy
    Latest discussion from the NHC indicates that Henri makes it’s closest approach to the region Sunday morning. It is projected to have winds of 85 mph with an expanding wind field. This aligns with a high tide in sync with a full moon. This is a recipe for significant coastal flooding.
  17. Tatamy
    Do you have any recollection of the surge impacts from Sandy? Those impacts spread beyond the beach. They actually spread as far inland as the NJ Turnpike near Secaucus plus a few other low spots.
  18. Tatamy
    So you don’t care about wind and surge with a TC. Okay.
  19. Tatamy
    That is not correct. Any significant tropical or non-tropical system can cause surge issues in the New York bight. The center only needs to move northwards parallel to the coast or linger off shore in order to build high tides in along the coast. The Perfect Storm of 1991 was a good example. I drove along Ocean Pkwy during the event and the water was up to the shoulder of the road along the bay side near Captree.
  20. Tatamy
    2.95” with the overnight deluge out here.
  21. Tatamy
    Quite a deluge over the past few hours from the remnants of Fred. 2.64” so far.
  22. Tatamy
    I second that request. Plenty of lightning so far with these storms.
  23. Tatamy
    12z HWRF at 60 hours is 20mb deeper than the 06z run. It’s also further west.
  24. Tatamy
    Tornado watch issued for much of eastern Pennsylvania.
  25. Tatamy
    Bingo!!
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