Tatamy
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Everything posted by Tatamy
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12z HWRF at 60 hours is 20mb deeper than the 06z run. It’s also further west.
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Tornado watch issued for much of eastern Pennsylvania. -
Bingo!!
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With a track like this higher tides will begin to cause flooding in susceptible coastal areas Saturday morning.
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There are no absolutes as far as track goes with this one. The models are still working it. There is a full moon on Sunday morning so the coastal flood threat is very real.
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From the 0z run to the 06z run of the HWRF the center is moved a full 3 degrees west in longitude. That is huge.
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06z HMON winds at 114 hours
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06z GFS
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Next Full moon is Sunday 8/22. As currently projected there will be coastal flooding impacts from Henri. This could be the most significant impact from the storm in our area.
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Next Full moon is Sunday 8/22. The track and timing of this storm are going to have coastal flooding impacts to the mid Atlantic region and northeast.
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They confirmed today that this was in fact a tornado. It was rated EF0 and the path ran for 3/4 mile in a remote wooded area near the Lakehurst Naval Air Station. They needed an aerial survey in order to get confirmation.
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I received 0.01”. They literally ran out of gas a few blocks from me. Lol
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Fred was not upgraded to a TS at 11pm. NHC now expecting it to regain TS status during Friday. Recon says that the mid level center is still 40 miles east of the LLC. This means reintensification will be slow to occur at best.
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Did you read the 5pm discussion from the NHC? The part about 20 kts of shear and a lack of organization? The system is not projected to re-attain Tropical Storm status until Friday night when it passes 100 miles south of Miami. This is not going to hit Miami as a hurricane. There may well be other storms that threaten Miami with hurricane force winds this season but not this one.
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I posted on the potential for this to happen yesterday. It’s not uncommon for this to happen especially with these weaker systems.
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Next step with this storm is to see if it re-centers itself along the north coast of Hispaniola while crossing the mountains. Time to look for evidence of that would be this evening. If this occurs it will have implications on the track going forward.
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Next round is on its way in. IMG_0609.mp4
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Currently getting a rain shower with light winds and no lightning. So much for the bow echo anyways. Will watch to see if it pulses up as it moves into Warren Cty.
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Intense squall line with a healthy looking bow echo now moving into my area from west of Allentown.
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If this system interacts with Hispaniola as shown on the expected track, let’s watch to see if it recenters along the north coast. This is not unusual with these weaker systems and will have implications on the eventual track as it tracks north of Cuba.
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I checked on the Davis site. Two stations in Miller Place. 1.28” and 1.42” are the totals so far.
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Why weren’t you at your house in the Poconos this weekend?
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Gorgeous weather out here today with no rain at all. Sunny, 85 with light winds and scattered Cu. We are fortunate to be under an area of subsidence between the coastal system and another one over the upper Midwest.
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The line is getting ready to cross Blue Mountain and move across the Lehigh Valley. With light rain and temperatures in the 60s here it does not appear that this feature will have too much left by the time it reaches the Delaware River Valley and western NJ.
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Mt. Holly reports EF3 damage in the Bensalem/Trevose area in Bucks Cty. from yesterday’s storms.
