Tatamy

You were probably under that crazy band that was cranking out that way for several hours earlier. I was under a band this morning that got us off to a good start. Are you up on that mountain just south of town?

Now up to 5.5" and still coming down.

Strongly agree. The Ukie was consistent in calling for the higher precip amounts further to the west. One of the more interesting aspects was how the GEFS was consistently to the west of the OP on this one. In any case it has been a while since I have seen such a big bust to the high side in my area.

5" storm total so far. 30*

HRRR has been terrible with this event.

4.5" storm total so far. 30*

4" storm total so far. 30*

3.25" storm total so far. 30*

2.75" storm total so far. 30*

Not sure if you have been watching radar trends however there has been nice banding across eastern PA and NW NJ with this event. I am in the Lehigh Valley and have already passed 2". I think we will be good for 3 - 4" out this way.

2" storm total so far. 29*

1.5" storm total so far. 30*

1" storm total so far. 29*

Steady light snow - 1/2" new - 29*

It's on its way. Steady light snow down here in the Lehigh Valley of PA. Radar is starting to light up pretty good just upwind of me.

We are underway here. It started about 9am. It was like somebody shook the clouds as it started coming down quickly. I overlook South Mountain near Bethlehem and you could see the dump starting. Now have light snow, visibility 1 mile and the ground has been whitened. 31*

How about a WWA for Brownsville, TX with accumulating snow of up to 1" !!! That is their forecast for tomorrow.

Has a deformation zone up towards you and across NW NJ with high ratio snows.

78 was worse on the north shore. There was 1" of ice on trees and shrubs in my yards. I have a picture somewhere of one of those seedballs from a Sycamore tree that was the size of a baseball with all of the ice on it. This was the most destructive ice storm I ever experienced.

On the site that calculates the Kuchera ratio it shows up to 1.5"

12z NAM backs off - just a small accumulation across NW NJ.

0z NAM 12K had this also. Looks like an outlier for now.

0z NAM 12K is indicating that we do not have to wait until Sunday. It is stronger with the wave for Tuesday evening and shows rain changing to accumulating snows across northern and western NJ and eastern PA to the tune of 2 - 4". This is from the Pivotal Wx maps. NAM 3K has a warmer solution.

Tropical Storm Watch issued for the NJ coastal waters URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 353 PM EDT SUN SEP 17 2017 ...TROPICAL STORM JOSE WILL AFFECT OUR WATERS WITH SIGNIFICANT WIND AND WAVES LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT... .A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE POTENTIAL OF PERIODS OF SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 34 KNOTS, WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE PRIMARY THREAT PERIOD APPEARS TO BE FROM APPROXIMATELY 2 AM TUESDAY TO ABOUT 2 AM WEDNESDAY. ANZ450>455-181000- /O.CAN.KPHI.SW.Y.0016.000000T0000Z-170918T1000Z/ /O.NEW.KPHI.TR.A.1012.170917T1953Z-000000T0000Z/ COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM- 353 PM EDT SUN SEP 17 2017 ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT... ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS IS CANCELLED... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS HAS BEEN CANCELLED. TROPICAL STORM JOSE MAY PASS CLOSE ENOUGH TO CAUSE A PERIOD OR TWO OF SUSTAINED 34 KNOT NORTHEAST TO NORTH WINDS ALONG THE DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS. GUSTS MAY EXCEED 40 KNOTS TUESDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT. THE CHANCE OF 34 KNOT SUSTAINED WIND HAS INCREASED TO NEAR 30 PERCENT ON THE THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS ADJACENT NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE ON TUESDAY. ROUGH SEAS ON TUESDAY WILL LIKELY BUILD TO BETWEEN 10 AND 16 FEET. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS SUSTAINED WINDS OF 34 TO 63 KT ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO A TROPICAL STORM WITHIN 48 HOURS.

The 12z Euro is projecting that the storm will be taking on hybrid characteristics while it approaches us. That means that it is also taking energy from baroclinic forces. The other models are not seeing this happen to the degree that the Euro is. This could result in greater impacts with higher winds. The 12z Euro is projecting wind gusts at the surface (10m) to be 40 - 60 MPH in gusts Tuesday night and Wednesday morning on the south shore beaches and across eastern LI (EuroWx). That would argue for a Tropical storm watch. I will add the Euro is projecting the storm to be a full fledged hurricane Tuesday evening centered 200 miles to the east of Ocean City, MD with winds gusting to 92 MPH at 10m. This would make for some tremendous seas and serious coastal flooding.