powderfreak

This is what I was envisioning and trying to convey yesterday I believe (though not as eloquently). The warm season rainfall footprint is often significantly less widespread than models show, but the “jackpots” will see more water than models show. I think that’s what you are getting at too. Like 3-4” won’t be that widespread but where it trains could double those amounts. The models are take like a “basin average” approach to QPF.

3k NAM bringing a good bit of water into parts of SNE. It’s not just PA to VT. Reggie is a pretty widespread soaker.

Yeah this map shows the road damage. We got hit pretty hard around Stowe too but the terrain up here opens up quite a bit more. Central VT has a lot more hilly terrain and narrow drainages. It’s tighter so to speak. Really multiplies that rainfall. Up north and into NEK, it feels more wide open than the hills in central/southern Vt.

That’s a noteworthy mudslide. Realizing 4” of water in one hour will lead to this in mountain topography.

You’ve said it before… high dew points in the mountains can lead to a lot of water with the daily tropical downpours. Today’s storms started firing by 11am.

I don’t know, I saw they got RT 4 open one lane only. I don’t even know if those shots are from RT 4 but the headline was about it and subsequent photos were those.

That 3-4” in one hour on radar estimates near Killington with legit mudslides really f*cked up RT 4 it sounds like.

Can you post them?

Damage near Killington, VT.

I usually think these end up like models show a widespread 3-6” and you get a narrow focused axis of like 6-8” with widespread 1-3”. Who knows though. Haven’t looked at it much, just how I generally view more convective QPF progs.

Some water chances for sure. Probably less widespread than the models show but the core might see higher totals?

We’ve been threading the needle with just some light rain at times. Those suckers drop a lot of water real fast though.

Been hearing thunder for what seems like 2 hours but staying dry for now. 78/69 at local PWS.

Regionwide rainfall looks to continue over the next two weeks. All models show positive northeast precip anomalies going forward. Humid pattern and high PWATS seem to limit Stein. Not a dry pattern. Personally I always like a NYC to PWM/AUG line for maximum interaction of Atlantic moisture with inland forcing.

It was hot today even at elevation. It was a high-end day IMO. One of the most dehydrating days via sweat when active outside.

I like San Diego weather. More like June 1st… 93/46 weather.

Yeah it’s a novel change of pace. I’ll give it that. It feels like summer. Give it a few weeks and I’ll be ready to move on. I still want May back though. Torching dry RH, dying grass, no clouds for weeks, lol.

If you are shivering at 77F in the shade you’re too old already. That sounds like my late grandfather at 90 years old on his porch. No idea how you survive the rest of the year if this is the most comfortable weather lol.

Just soaked through and through. Dripping for the whole two hours. Need to rehydrate. Beer.

Saw 88/72 at MVL for probably the most uncomfortable reading. Did the two-hour hike to the picnic tables and back with the dog between 4-6pm. Just got home and holy shit that heat takes it out of you. I’m smoked. Its great for swimming but just about anything else it’s a tough go of it. Golfing, hiking, mountain biking, evening softball league, etc… could all use a bit more COC. The mini-splits though are a game changer. Can’t believe we used to try to cool with the noisy units. Now it’s dead calm and quiet and a dry 68F inside. Feels like central air.

Yeah I love ORH too for displaying what being on a hilltop vs valley at the same elevation means. Up this way you can hit 90F to 1500ft a few times because it’s low terrain relatively. 1000ft around here vs 1000 at ORH is definitely completely different climo. Radiate and torch, vs the hilltop version of the same elevation.

Nice. 3 times here so far.

Kids happy to be outside finally?

Every time I step outside these days I think of you. It’s almost disturbing. Outdoor recreation times have been skyrocketing. Usually takes 60 minutes to hike 2,000 verts, these dews it’s now 70-75 minutes.

This is legit. 90/66 up here.