powderfreak

Looks like we might get a little break to go walk around and check things out. It’s been steady pouring since 3:30pm. Just heavy rain, stations are around 1.50” in past 3 hours locally. Steady 1/2” per hour.

He’s above the Winooski enough I believe. RT 2 getting to his place might be another issue though.

Waterbury, VT.

That had to be from the other day’s flash flood or another time, no? Road isn’t even wet. Couldn’t have been today?

Montpelier exit on I-89 northbound closed due to flooding. Trying to picture how it could be but that’s a big deal.

Active train tracks in Ludlow, VT. Gone.

Picked up another 1” between 3:30-5:30pm. Radar looked like you had to pick up at least that much during that time.

Yeah looks like 11pm to midnight or so. 3km NAM has the 925 and 850mb lows literally on top of me this evening, not much wind flow in any direction.

I feel like this afternoon was decent, the river might have even slightly dipped a bit in the consistent lower rain rates. But you can see what happens during the heavier bursts… the water level outside just comes up through the grass lol. It really has seemed like 1”/hr rates are about where you see things start happening.

Back up to rain rates over 1”/hr. This downpour has been going about a half hour now and the yard is pounding for first time of event. This is the stuff that starts putting things over the edge. I bet we’ve had a quick half inch again. Local stations going up fast again. There was 1.5-2” prior to midnight and this is local station today since then.

Irene was like around 5.50” here IIRC. I think we’ll beat it but a bit longer duration. The bulk in Irene fell in like 12 hours.

I think I’m closing in on 5” now. Month’s worth of rain in 22 hours.

Agreed. Water is one of those things I don't mess with. Even walking along the river was a bit unnerving. Fall in and you're just gone.

Oh yeah we'd be gone fast. I think we are good. But the "red" 50dbz just got here and this is like 1" in 20 minutes type rainfall. Everything is just so primed right now, you throw in a quick inch or something under a half hour and this is going to go nuts.

This is going to escalate quickly now. It is absolutely torrential rain and a big slug moving in.

Just wave after wave of water.

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0690...Corrected NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1200 PM EDT Mon Jul 10 2023 Corrected for Flash Flooding Likely Areas affected...Northern NY...State of VT...Western NH...Western MA Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely Valid 101540Z - 102140Z SUMMARY...A significant and dangerous flooding event is likely to continue in parts of central New England as excessive rainfall rates look to persist into the afternoon hours. DISCUSSION...An upper low is beginning to form over central NY while an 850mb low is taking shape over the Lower Hudson Valley. Mean 850-500mb streamflow remains out of the south, and as the upper low deepens this afternoon, winds in the in the 850-700mb layer will become southeasterly. Latest RAP guidance shows strong 850mb theta-e advection originating from southern New England that will then wrap around the northern flank of the 850mb low. Unfortunately, this means that copious amounts of moisture will still be at athe atmosphere's disposal. The aforementioned southeasterly flow oriented orthogonally to the Green and White Mountains will also enhance rainfall rates due to upslope flow. Due to the large amount of cloud cover in place, CAPE values will be hard to come by (up to 500 J/kg generally), capping most hourly rainfall rates below 2"/hr. However, PWATs ranging between 1.5-1.75" remain at or above the 90th climatological percentile. Sampled RAP soundings throughout the highlighted region feature low-mid level RH values >90% and warm cloud layers up to 13,000ft deep. So despite the lack of instability, strong vertical ascent courtesy of divergent flow ahead of the upper low and a strong southeasterly 850mb moisture transport supports warm rain processes within areas of heavy showers and thunderstorms. Soils have become overly saturated and in some cases can no longer take in any additional rainfall. FFGs are exceptionally low, with portions of central and southern VT, western MA, and northeast of KALB sporting 6-hr FFGs <1.5". The latest 12Z HREF is showing 30-40% probabilities of 6-hr QPF > 100-yr ARI between 18-00Z today in northern VT, which is both impressive and highly concerning. Given the impacts parts of the region have already witnessed from this event, additional significant to even catastrophic impacts are expected. Potential impacts include but are not limited to flooded and washed out roads, flooded homes, mudslides, and fast moving creeks and streams. Mullinax ATTN...WFO...ALY...BOX...BTV...GYX... ATTN...RFC...NERFC...NWC... LAT...LON 45237307 45237215 45187138 44707131 43557168 42787211 42187268 42087331 42227380 42727410 43847388 44777372 45137353

It’s full, but so far only flooding parts of the forest along it. It’s in the trees in some spots but those are like the first line of defense. It’s not to the full high water mark I’ve seen where it’s fully out of the woods and into yards. I do think another 2-3” would start to get real interesting though. This thing can be ankle deep trickle I just walk up and down with the dog. Now it’s 10+ feet of muddy debris filled water.

Thanks guys, I’m good. Our pool may be in trouble though. Just checked basement and all is dry. We are not high up off the river but it’s enough. If water gets to us the entire town of Stowe is in SOS. I’m up to around 4” since 5pm yesterday.

3.50+ now storm total here with today and tonight to go.

The fact that models still have it going after midnight tonight up here is concerning. 7am on EURO.

Wife and are going out for a walk. River in the back is almost to our parking lot. Stowe Country Club is under water. Town fields are gone.

Okemo

RT 100 and RT 103 Washed out in Ludlow, VT. Those are big roads through there.

Numerous stations from Ludlow to Londonderry VT with 4-5” since midnight. That’s going to be a problem. Over 2.5” storm total here since yesterday afternoon. Moderate to heavy rain continues.