powderfreak

That’s a very honest answer, ha. I feel that. These events are always going to have surprises when convection is involved. My one pause is always the consistent bullseye for days… nothing is ever that consistent this time of year. There’s always the haves and have nots… one town gets 0.92” in three rounds of 0.30” rain. While another town does 3.28” not far away.

How far would you toss the extended HRRR if this were winter?

Good wind crossing the Sound. This is close to the radar site, so the radar sample is low elevation. That wind is likely legit for those in its path.

Someone is getting destroyed by flash flooding. It won’t be that widespread, but that signal means damage.

That’s legit. That hail has to be pushing 2”.

There’s 65-70 DBZ scanned south of New Britain. That’s intense. OKX radar sampling that at 3,800ft elevation it looks like.

Decent wind velocities.

76/54 Dried out nicely this afternoon. Open the windows up.

ICON has like a foot for NYC, ha.

I’d feel fairly confident in 1”+ for your location… but yeah, I guess like winter if folks are looking for jackpots those will be narrow. Someone gets 1.5”, they’ll say they were Steined because somewhere else saw 4.5” and flash flooding.

There’s a higher chance of something going wrong for rain in summer than snow in winter?

88/65 Dews are running 5-7F lower up here today. It’s still very hot and humid but definitely a little bit of relief felt with a breeze today.

That’s so brutal in an urban setting. Man, if you don’t have A/C…

Yeah, you’d think if the state’s HI record was 115F, the post would want to focus on all the sites above that level in this image… not the one showing an erroneous 133F. Numerous sites above that 115F level but they lose the viewer by elevating the highest outlier.

Just had a quick shower leave 0.04” and then the sun quickly returned… and oh my god it feels like a real life sauna out there. I’m imagining a PWS with like 80F dews right now after that small amount of moisture. Your skin just turns immediately damp.

Sorry for the snark, it just feels like the same discussion about comparing dew points of a PWS in a wooded area. The data is real, the dew is 75F on DIT’s yard when it’s 68F at the open airport field. Both are real but for different reasons. Humans have altered the landscape too, it’s hard to separate out what degree of warming may be from pavement, vs emissions vs other anthropological reasons. I guess you could remove all sites that are within 30 miles of a given population number… then compare all the sites in rural areas to see what happens in the means?

But that’s where the airports usually are where temperature records are often taken, no? Just playing devils advocate.

Oh yeah, but I’m just saying where people live those temperatures are real to them. Heat islands are absolutely a thing but those temperatures are what are being felt too by millions and millions of people.

You mean how do we monitor surface temperatures as if there weren’t 7 billion humans building stuff all over the world?

Yeah good call. This morning especially felt cooler than I would’ve guessed going into Day 2. Those multiple rounds that moved through last night seemed much more developed than any model had, even short term.

I’m a little bummed from those MOS numbers a couple days ago… wanted to pop mid-90s up here. Been 90-91F.

Yeah RadarScope does HI. I’m not a fan when I see those.

Heavy rain, continuous thunder. Just constant booming, driving the dog into an anxious mess. A couple solid nearby cracks, deafening. Strobe lightning in this tropical air mass. This rainfall is intense, too.

Decent regional line.

Round two.