powderfreak

Oh we can absolutely run into a big storm or two, but that’s not going to save a winter in NNE. I mean, I’m a very positive person but can’t spin a couple big storms in a sea of meh as a “not too bad” winter like 2015-16. The biggest problem is the lack of arctic shuts off our main snow divers in NW flow, lake effect, etc. That stuff probably accounts for at least half the mountain snow with synoptic the other half. These maps show how the lack of cold in Canada moving SEward really stunts snowfall in this area back towards the lakes.

ORH getting to 29F is interesting if he stayed 36F.

Yup, and this Nino is doing exactly what is expected. The Super Nino composites for depth on Mansfield are not in any way encouraging, ha. Some bottom barrel seasons.

Latest 1” depth at the Mansfield summit stake since 1954 was 11/9/1985. I feel like we are going to beat that. This super Nino fall going to set the latest 1” snowfall at the Mansfield summit station?

Phenomenal.

It was 10 degrees warmer at 3am than it is now.

It turns fake as soon as it becomes inverted.

61F real degrees at 9:30pm here. Can take the dog out with shorts on. Windows are open. Can’t do that when it’s fake. Cherish these mild evenings before the long winter.

50 degrees was the real temperature, both morning and afternoon.

28F to 70F today.

If it’s fake to begin with, but then advects into your neighborhood, does it become real? Philosophers want to know.

I won't lie, I see no one getting tussled over frosts this fall. Every morning you seem to be the driver of the fake cold narrative, but I again understand, you are growing your vegetables getting up each morning seeing 15 posts about people with ice, 28F, dead vegetation, etc. In the afternoon, you don't seem to care as much if BDL is 71F and you are 66F, it feels normal even if the heat is fake. Honestly, we've had some deep freezes, even as low as 20F at home at 1,100ft this past week... but I'm not sure 1,800ft has gotten below 30F once, lol. The mid-slopes have been staying warmer. It's just how it is in high pressure patterns.

It's not a hot air mass either though. Why don't we call it fake warmth? Every air mass a cold one if you go up high enough.

I wrote the same thing as the bolded. It can be hot at one point and cold at another point, all in 24 hours. Or is the argument that we just take the average temperature? Like the average temperature is 60F, but it's 30F at night and 90F by day. That average temperature is fairly useless in that scenario... it hits 60F for 15 minutes at like 10am and again at 6pm.

In your example, I'd argue its cold at night and hot during the day. If you are sleeping out in the desert, you really don't care why it is what it is. So you are saying it's fake cold and fake heat? I also get it from the standpoint of you living on a hill top... people saying its cold and you are still growing vegetables. That's going to get a response that this isn't real. I mean, I can be standing up at the picnic tables and it's breezy and 55F while it's frosty and 28F in the valley almost 4,000ft below... its just weather, that's how it happens. It's been happening in mountain valleys since the dawn of time... whether it's in Yellowstone or Jackson Hole, or in a hollow of CT.

This is such a weird discussion, lol. No one is saying it’s deep cold. But when your car is frozen solid in the morning and you are scraping ice or warming it up, it’s just a weird way of phrasing it. As Tip said, temperature is temperature. When there’s CAD or icing, no one is like well it’s fake cold because it’s warm at 9,000ft.

Everything I see is fake. Fake cold from radiational cooling, fake snow from upslope or lake effect. Not even sure what’s real anymore.

Will Atlanta see a frost before you?

Those are like June lows up there in Tolland.

Yeah I saw that… the AI has been flagging that period for a few runs. Not necessarily cold but something interesting.

GEFS look cool heading into mid-November.

I’ll say I’ve been fringed in a lot of SNE storms but that’s the only one I’m still jealous of. We got 1.5” lol. What a remarkable event.

Had you hit 32F or lower in 2011 before the Rocktober snowstorm?

That’s kind of wild. FROPA through here, some decent NW gusts.

It’s kind of crazy how it won’t mix out. Still upper 50s at 1500ft and upper 40s down in Stowe Village PWS spots. MVL holding at 48F too. Even some spot 60F above 1,200ft.