powderfreak

Economies can’t always grow and bring good times. A healthy period of struggle that we haven’t even sniffed yet, is likely the catalyst for realistic change/resetting of the markets.

Stowe Security ran into this guy this evening while doing their rounds. He better hide, hunting season starts soon.

You really can’t find any housing stock available on the wages of the people who actually allow these towns to function. The worker-bees.

Hopefully. Stake looked lonely yesterday.

But everyone has said there’s been no foliage?

That is absolutely absurd… going full months between accumulating snowfall in CT in the winter.

Cuts west? GFS/GGEM/ECMWF/ICON

This type of trough on November 1st wouldn’t really do anything for me as the cold shot in the flow.

One Methuen yard with thigh high grass?

It may be a poor year but I think it’s also late. I bet some will see some half decent color at times and have written it off too early.

For every hundred acorns in your yard you get 1” of snow.

Rain picked back up here around 5-6pm? Been just a persistent light rain, only 0.07” this evening but has felt Iike October with mid-40s and wet leaves type of evening.

I’ve heard most lodging around here is gone already. Crazy for mud-season in VT, ha. I still think the chances of clouds and stuff is so very high that time of year but maybe we get lucky!

Down to 39F by midnight would have certainly frosted or even froze, but we cannot time it right this fall so far. Low stratus rolled in and up to 46F by 4am and NW flow orographic showers this morning.

GFS looks sort of like a pattern where it eventually snows before freezes, ha.

It seems triggering when the topic comes up on here at times but I honestly don’t think anyone is up at night worrying about it. Like it is what it is. Discussing local weather trends on a weather forum. No one has said one thing about a cause of it or taking action because of it. Like if we were talking about a trend of increasing rainfall? Increasing snowfall? No one is not enjoying life by pointing out a trend in temperature data.

Anytime a warm trend in climate comes up…

That’s MVL… BTV is ever so slightly cooler (averaging 1F departure less than the mountain valleys) because BTV doesn’t have as much radiational cooling baked into its climo as much as the others. So BTV is actually slightly lower departures because of that.

It’s been some mild nights for sure. SLK/BML/HIE should be hitting freezing with regularity. I know they’ve snuck it in once or twice maybe? But the radiators are not mounting up lol.

Yeah and to clarify I’m not pointing it out in any way other than to show the data. It’s not alarming or a cause/effect or whatever. It literally is what it is. It’s like when DIT says it isn’t like it used to be, that’s largely true removing all emotion from the context. I know sometimes people don’t want to hear it, but I think statistically it’s very interesting when you keep getting long term data points showing similar trajectories. The mountain summit has largely pivoted from freezes in late August and first half of September, to 2nd half of September and early October. There will be outliers on both sides, but the general picture is what it is.

Yeah and likewise in the Valley at 750ft we have not had a below normal day yet this month and sit at +8. When the trough has come, it’s been cloudy, showery and zero radiational cooling. Record warmth for first half of October. Average right now is 58/36… should be frosty most mornings at this point. We are past BTV’s climo frost/freeze program dates now.

It hasn’t been great and it’s been horrible since the last weekend rainstorm because it’s gone. But we did have a 10 days of good, enjoyable color and largely above 1-1.5K feet. The mid-slope hardwoods. Some tree species went true red and orange. It just came down real fast. It’s kinda like when all of New England sees a tough winter but there’s usually an area that wasn’t as bad relative to normal as others. Maybe it’s putting lipstick on a pig when you get 80% of snowfall while most others get 50%? I know Jim Salge (formerly MWN and big foliage guy) had mentioned the high elevations in NNE lucked out the best with the first wave of color in later September, while the second wave isn’t coming like most years and everything else lower down and south has been almost non-existent.

Mount Mansfield fell to 31F this morning, first 32F or lower of the season and second latest on record (Oct 19, 2021). Some interesting stats: From 1956-2000… first 32F or lower occurred in October only once! It happened in August 7 times. Since 2000… first 32F or lower has happened in October 7 times and 0 times in August. Most eye opening is the 1956-2023 period average 32F or lower date is 9/15. Since 2000 however, that first freeze has occurred prior to 9/15 only 4 out of 23 years. 19 of last 23 years it has after the long term mean of September 15th. Growing season continues to extend in the means.

We had under 3” in September and things dried out very well. Have to wonder if that led to a better first round of color in higher elevations of the Adirondacks into Greens compared to further south? Would 2.75” in September vs 10-15” matter in foliage?

Yeah I guess? I dunno, I still thought there was some good enjoyable color before the big rainstorm. I enjoyed it briefly locally. We had some good color in the first wave that hit higher elevations in the north. Never made it down there to check though elsewhere. It’s completely over and done now. November stick season. Leaves gone.