powderfreak

This communication is solid. The eclipse and late-season nature of this season makes the short notice harder in the public eye.

Can’t do a lot up high during the Bicknell’s Thrush time frame… it makes sense operationally. You don’t want a lift replacement at that elevation to start off behind schedule either. You know issues will crop up over the summer and fall too, these lift replacements are tough. If they decided it was not possible to complete on time without cutting the current season short, it’s a sound long-game plan. I just imagine if a Vail-owned mountain did this (announce days prior a main lift closure, stopping summit access, especially ahead of the eclipse)… would be a bloodbath.

18z Euro continuing to focus more on the primary. The WAA thump is much less while it puts a 20-burger in the St Lawrence Valley in NW NY. 12z through 96hrs: To new 18z through 90 hours:

Yeah you’re right, it’s NW slopes of the Dacks into Canada. That SFC track is Adirondacks all the way too. Though low level jet on front side would be enough to get NH/ME foothills/Mtns. Thats a classic track for a split here in N.VT between mid-level synoptic lift west and low level WCB lifting east. Occluded mess.

That’s an Adirondacks look right there. H7 low goes over like SLK.

You’re good on Tuesday, this event up here is now like later Wednesday and Thursday. But you have to drive through it I guess before it gets north ha.

There’s a decent NNE contingency, I feel like it’s stronger than it has been in past years with a couple of the new posters too. But post count has dropped quite a lot since those Dec 1992 runs.

ICON inland now. Much warmer.

There is something to keeping some southern runs going or this thread does very fast. Already happening.

Don't discount it. Joins the rest of the party.

The NAM was thoroughly discounted the past couple events when it was on its own. Remember all that snowfall it was showing just a couple days ago for that long-duration rainer? Amped up into the cold sector?

Good bump north on the Canadian.

GFS is interesting. Still going through Saturday, ha. Interesting how there’s no 10:1 snow in ORH Hills but snow depth increases…

Longer that primary holds on the more it seems able to flood BL warmth in too.

6z ICON FWIW got drastically better on the coastal plain.

Long duration E-NE flow into that topography… it really is the first big wall encountered by the moist Atlantic maritime air. If mountains are rocks in a stream, when the water flows from the east into New England, the largest build-up of water is on the east side of the Apps. West of there is turbulent (windy/angry) flow.

I’m going eastern facing side of the Whites for the jackpot right now.

That’s a big event for a lot of NNE mtns.

3 feet for Pinkham Notch

To be honest it doesn’t matter lol. Just think it’s a marginal air mass, the 10:1 maps are over-selling it. In some cases pretty solidly over-selling it.

Is that the same as positive depth change?

To me it depends on rates. 12-15” of 10:1 snow maps over 36-48 hours of “periods of snow” probably verifies as 4-6 inches on the ground when it ends. If it’s 12-15” in 12-18 hours, it’s probably closer to that 10-12” on ground.

Agreed. 1,000ft is good but the lower elevations have had numerous storms where depth change nailed it pretty good. Especially up here with valley vs mountain ratios.

It’s been very good this season to be honest. Numerous events the depth change has been much closer to reality with so many marginal temp events. The 10:1 maps stacking up white rain that the depth maps got right at 4:1.

Brattleboro is essentially Greenfield, MA like Hippy said. Literally the same exact climate in the CT Valley there at the MA/VT/NH borders. Maybe even worse than Greenfield because it has slightly higher terrain east and west. Monadnocks on one side and the S. Greens on the other.