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powderfreak

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  1. powderfreak
    One has to wonder. Not going to lie, I am very intrigued at how this plays out given the consistent high-end model data. Maybe it’s a bust, but it’s been consistent. A great learning experience in progress either way. 00z GFS. 00z HERPES
  2. powderfreak
    Torrential rainfall. This stuff is very efficient... and loud. East side getting soaked. It's all draining within a couple hundred feet of my door. Tomorrow may be interesting for the West Branch.
  3. powderfreak
    Over 1” as steady rain continues. Ski area base at 1500ft is over 2”.
  4. powderfreak
    What are some of the station rainfall totals and duration around there? Thats high end stuff.
  5. powderfreak
    Still some huge bullseyes showing up north on the 00z models. 00z HRRR 5-10” Champlain Valley. 3km NAM… foot of water for the Spine. That would be a problem for the drainages.
  6. powderfreak
    There are mushrooms all over here and we’ve got more red on that map than your area. I believe Coastalwx. This afternoon on a trail I saw mushrooms everywhere. Red, orange, white. It’s the humidity/dews mixed with the rain there has been. I can’t believe you are that much drier there.
  7. powderfreak
    It always is this time of year. This map posted by Stein shows how NNE and SE SNE missed out the multi-day 2-6” event through the heart of SNE/CNE a few days ago. This summer just wants to rain. Big total events keep rolling through the region.
  8. powderfreak
    Click on “Next Day.” Its confusing. Can’t click on “Day 2” actually. Look at the forecast times. Click Next Day and Day 2 and you get it.
  9. powderfreak
    You need to go to Day 2. Tomorrow is the High Risk day.
  10. powderfreak
    Saw the 18z Euro continued to prolong the heavy rain threat. Tomorrow afternoon and night hold the risk up here after today’s table setting rainfall. We’ll see but tomorrow and tomorrow night always looked like the flood time up here. 6pm Tomorrow… Then still having convective water around at 6am Tuesday.
  11. powderfreak
    Several models highlighted that area too. Monadnock region too.
  12. powderfreak
    Hopefully. Will be plenty of rain regardless. Being cut off from civilization from washouts isn’t a lot of fun.
  13. powderfreak
    I don’t think that was the primary driver at all except locally here. There’s a front that’s relatively stationary down there. Up here it was just the very tip of the system and it was pretty evident it was packing water into the east slope from SE to NW movement. The real show up here is when that stuff down south moves through tomorrow. The damage up here should be tomorrow. Up to 0.90” at home and the river flow has doubled this evening, so it’s all run off.
  14. powderfreak
    SE flow ahead of the system hammering the east side of Mount Mansfield up here. Already 1.25”+ at base of the ski area compared to an inch less on western slope.
  15. powderfreak
    And we are on the board. 0.50” in under 15 minutes to start it off.
  16. powderfreak
    12z 3KM takes that surface low just a bit further west along the New England/NY border. It appears the heaviest will be immediately NW of that feature? Lot of spread in SNE though, especially eastern areas.
  17. powderfreak
    12z HRRR would. 8” at MVL… A foot at Mansfield with the whole east slope all draining within 300 feet of my place. Flexseal won’t stop that.
  18. powderfreak
    Yeah we’ve been fairly dry but it’s often more frequent rains at lighter amounts. Same amount as the 1-2” at Taunton, which is apparently full Stein.
  19. powderfreak
    These 6z Mesos are a problem. This is Irene levels of issues in the most susceptible tight narrow terrain/hills/mtns of central and eastern VT. Roads and towns follow water through narrow valleys and hollows. 6z HRRR pretty widespread 5-8”. 6z 3km NAM is like villages off the grid for a while. Can’t dump 5-10” into that terrain given how there’s already been hydro problems.
  20. powderfreak
    Someone gets smoked. Catskills, Berkshires, Greens.
  21. powderfreak
    Looks like you'll be mowing at 6:30 tomorrow morning Sunrise in Greenfield is 5:21am… why wait until 6:30?
  22. powderfreak
    73/70 Humid, there are some massive insects in the floodlight this evening outside. Have to be thriving in this tropical environment.
  23. powderfreak
    This is what I was envisioning and trying to convey yesterday I believe (though not as eloquently). The warm season rainfall footprint is often significantly less widespread than models show, but the “jackpots” will see more water than models show. I think that’s what you are getting at too. Like 3-4” won’t be that widespread but where it trains could double those amounts. The models are take like a “basin average” approach to QPF.
  24. powderfreak
    3k NAM bringing a good bit of water into parts of SNE. It’s not just PA to VT. Reggie is a pretty widespread soaker.
  25. powderfreak
    Yeah this map shows the road damage. We got hit pretty hard around Stowe too but the terrain up here opens up quite a bit more. Central VT has a lot more hilly terrain and narrow drainages. It’s tighter so to speak. Really multiplies that rainfall. Up north and into NEK, it feels more wide open than the hills in central/southern Vt.
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