powderfreak

lol every time we disagree. Sorry, winter’s a busy time of year. Gave you some good Waterbury recommendations. To be fair to both sides, there will be days when both are correct. Ahead of any front, it’ll get dewy and rain. And the upper level jet structure and dynamics continue to be strong so it’ll rain a lot at times. But compared to July, the FROPAs will actually move through occasionally. July they never did, it was like a month-long stalled boundary to our west. I don’t think it’s completely correct or am I calling for it, but the NAM shows what I’m trying to articulate: Today, dewy rains. Tomorrow, NW flow and drier. Then another system moves in with dewy rains.. But the FROPA moves through behind it and drier WNW flow again. July’s pattern did not feature those FROPAs and flow never really went deep layer NW behind rainers. July was just a constant feed of moisture and dews with fronts washing out. The long wave trough was further west.

Bingo. Major difference is that in July, the trough was stable and never actually made it to us. So it was every single day of dews and rain. Just a perpetual SW flow aloft and SSE flow low levels. This month the upper level trough is actually progressing so it gives us the breaks and the flow actually does go NW at times. Of course, basic meteorology is ahead of a trough there will be moisture and warmth pumped up ahead of it… so whenever these features move in we will get days that are like July (rain and moisture). We get those days every month of the year to some extent, even December too. The classic push of warmer moist air ahead of a trough/system. But then it actually gets here and the flow dries, whereas in July it was stalled for like a month straight. The trough never progressed over us. Sure, ahead of every trough until Christmas the temporary pattern is like July… gets humid and rains. But unlike July, we’ll get some of the drier NW flow days behind it. The whole thing is moved eastward from July.

How is this in any way mirroring July so far? July was like a record warm month all-time (top 5 most spots). Almost every site will be below normal through the first 10 days (33%) of this month. Weed and beer combo on that.

Nice to have the trough to spin these Synoptics up. Feel like we’ve had better jet structures and upper dynamics than some cold seasons so far this summer.

Looks like a desert.

Man I got Steined with only 1.70”. Might need to water tonight.

It’s very persistent. EPS here for 8/15. A couple things stand out… that secondary axis of lower heights still nodding into New England as the parent trough reloads into the upper Lakes. That node of lower heights rippling through could spoil heat and humidity… but if it ends up not there at all, that picture gets a lot warmer/humid during that time. Still a way for this to get more humid and hot earlier, but persistence wants to lean towards anyway possible to lower heights in the region.

Yeah sometimes I know I come off snarky to DIT, it’s just sometimes the last decade of forum disco has gone like a microcosm of society, lol. Apologies. We used to love discussing actual model data and yes, it’s “a bit” on here and I know it’s joking most of the time, but mocking data and toeing the line blindly feels like it gets me as a larger societal issue. I don’t mean for the snark to come through but we have data available to us to look at and discuss… once we just go blindly into the night, to go down with a ship we set sail on a whim, what are we doing? Theres zero doubt it will get humid and hot again. Zero doubt. But progs at end of July have definitely stepped back about 10 days now. That’s not an insignificant amount of time. Sort of like expecting a nice run in winter and realize that 10-14 days of climo vanished pretty fast.

You’re reading comprehension is interesting. It would be wild to spend a day in your brain lol. By the 18th that map shows a July-like pattern. So that’s established prior to the 3 week mark. Not COC through first three weeks. We can just live in facts and data, don’t know why that’s so scary. Say first two weeks and transition, established by 18th on that prog?

Something about living in the present vs the future… keep trying to erase it like the past 10 days didn’t happen . At first it was a couple days. Then it was first week. Then it was August 12th. Now it’s August 18th before the GEFS show a similar 500mb to July. Again though it’s just data, we don’t all have the KFS data on model sites.

DIT just threw his laptop through the window unit. It was only supposed to be 2-3 days around August 1st.

Troughing in summer, ridging in winter. Mother Nature can be cruel.

54F. I’m sure the summer steam bath is coming back hard, but yesterday was our 9th straight day of below normal departures (MVL and BTV). Last time the temperature hit 80F was 10 days ago, lows in the 40s and 50s. The well-advertised troughing seemed to actually come through for a 10-day stretch in mid-summer.

Best weekend of the summer so far. Not a drop of rain.

We enjoy this evening… right here right now. Wild flowers popping.

There’s not much left to begin with, ha. Interesting that even during this 7-8 day below normal stretch, VT has still seen some major flash flood events.

Warm day at 1k feet at 77F. Really dried out nicely across the region except the Cape where it should be humid for beach.

Made it all the way up to 74F under partly sunny skies today. Sort of a September vibe.

What a day. 73/52 currently. Dew has been 50-54F past couple hours.

All joking aside, this has been a decent week straight stretch of below normal. Spots are running -5F to -6F for a 7-day mean up this way. Last 7 day departures for the furnace that is BTV -5/-5/-6/-9/-7/-3/-5.

I see it now. It went from 68F to 60F. Must’ve been spiked from the “dew hour” this morning before drying?

68?

You guys are hilarious.

57F with really dense fog. MVL and MPV both M1/4 for visibility.

So wildly uncomfortable, but carry “status” weight… and oh boy are they heavy.