powderfreak

Max of 78F so far.

Nice to see widespread 70F before noon from north to south.

It’s hot. Already 65F at 1500ft. Today will torch. Valley has been lagging 10F behind though when they mix out it’s going up fast.

Foliage has been coming along.

That’s nuts. I remember that one, you were averaging like a half inch a day or more all summer.

Didn't you have a ridiculously wet summer like two years ago? Maybe three? Does this top that?

Smokes been around for days in and out. Seems a bit cleaner here on NW winds but looking east this evening from here is a wall of smoke trapped under an inversion.

Yeah I don’t know what fake heat would be but was trying to describe the inverse of radiational cooling… when the elevated mountain valleys are warmer than say BTV or other spots. Like when the mountain valleys radiate to 800-850mb level temps and then mix back up through there in the afternoon.

Absolute torch in the fake temp valleys. BML and here at MVL with 75F. SLK with 73F at 1,600ft. Fake cold to fake heat.

What a damn day. 73/49 and sunny. This is how you run a Saturday.

That’s two-thirds of an inch more than up here, ha. Been a fairly nice month for being outdoors.

Weakening but still some potential for additional 0.5" to 1.5"? Location may be wrong on the models but the potential is there to pad the stats. .

Nice Advisory level event down there.

How’s Forky feel about that?

It’s too bad the clouds came in. Today was just like cloudy and 50s. Not much redeeming value, but yes dry. Only 3” up here in September.

Mild and suppression would be an interesting combination.

My wife flew into Newark just now. Lucky choice for a NYC area airport to fly through today. No delays or issues while JFK and LGA are in trouble.

The modeled max amounts are noteworthy. Someone gets a legit flood. To get the models to print out these QPF signals… someone is getting smoked. It could be relatively localized.

The official water year runs October 1st to September 30. It's the officially recognized dates for tracking yearly water totals. USDA, USGS, and most folks use it for planning purposes, reservoirs, and agriculture. The warm season ends the water year, "calendar" flips as vegetation starts to go dormant. CoCoRAHS has this: While the definition may vary regionally, a common definition of "water year" is October 1 through September 30th. In the cool months, evaporation rates are very low, snow accumulates in cold regions, storms tend to be widespread, and most areas see accumulation of moisture in the soil. Then comes spring with it's accompanying snow melt and high runoff from mountainous regions and higher latitudes. The summer months bring high evaporation rates. Precipitation (much from thunderstorms) becomes much more localized. Soil moisture may be gradually depleted during summer as vegetation uses large volumes of water. Streams run slower and clearer. https://www.cocorahs.org/wateryearsummary/

These two events make me wonder if we even see flakes this winter.

You want it all.

SNE taking the shitty-day baton from NNE with this recent run. The moisture gradient lifted NW during peak summer, and has been slinking SE lately as these more usual autumn highs build in from the north. Maybe by winter it bottoms out in the mid-Atlantic?

Same here. 37F. M1/4 fog.

Widespread 40s this evening.

68/45 and full sun. This is how September should be. Sneaking into the 30s in the AM then near 70F in PM.