powderfreak

I’m getting intense déjà vu as we have the same conversation every. single. summer. Its humid as balls for a while and then dews drop from 73F to 60-62F and it feels much nicer out. Someone mentions it feels good and then a certain poster finds it funny that a dew of 61F is now comfortable. Every year. Without fail.

Didn’t you install Air Conditioning when the temp hit 60F in April and started wearing shorts and tees. Now the talk is cold and about wearing hoodies and shawls if the temp goes below 70F in the evening. Of course the body acclimates. Aside from busting balls, a sunny March day at 50F feels like summer… 50F in Sept/Oct feels frigid.

Even up here, now most have mini-splits or central air put in. It does feel more humid than it did a decade ago but it could be more on the mind lately. Part of it is that our society is less and less ok with being uncomfortable. We are less accepting of being uncomfortable and technology has allowed it easier to get efficient, quiet A/C that wasn’t as readily available 10-20 years ago.

Agreed, it needs to be back where it was in the upper Midwest stretching into the Lakes at times so we stay on the far eastern edge where heights are rising. As modeled that trough is deflecting everything.

Going to a summer wedding atop Jay Peak next weekend… this would be interesting if 850mb temps were low single digits. That’s a crisp air mass for end of July. Luckily the EURO is like +10 above this.

See I'll disagree. I saved a bunch of media from the time of big rains and flooding. The trough this month was much further west. Compare these to the image you posted. That trough is much further east, directly over us. That would not allow humid warm air to stream into our zone and there's no battle ground over us. This month's pattern that brought humid rains had heights rising over us and the below normal heights well west. That allowed that humid moist air to fire directly northward into our region... and we were in the battle zone between trough and ridge. EPS Mid-July GEFS Mid-July.

I’m seeing both ensembles looking like the trough is much further east than it was. Im not saying I think it’s right (haven’t paid enough attention), I’m just saying if you are using those as “supporting docs” then it’s not what is shown exactly. For example, this is a 7-day mean of the EPS, with trough centered over us not Great Lakes. Can see the 2-M temps also reflect that, not in GL. This is first week of August and that’s as far as they run. Meanwhile the GEFS are further east, over us and into Maritimes. That’s much different mean than over the GL. 2-M temps also reflect it July 31-Aug 7 to end of run.

Can you show us some upper level progs to illustrate this August pattern? I’m curious what I should be looking for.

Don’t look at data and charts. Forecast from the heart. Then there’s less confusion.

Nope they don’t look at it much different operationally in my mind. If you are in the event business, you are approaching it the same way each time. Doesn’t matter the artist, they’ll follow the SOP and ticketing language.

It’s not raining right now, that’s all that matters lol.

Definitely a cooler day. Been bouncing around 69-72F this afternoon with clouds and upslope showers/sprinkles.

Dad’s drunk at the brewery under the awning while little Johnny does laps on his bike through the muddy pump track. Wife and girls are spending two grand on retail they don’t need.

We are too .

Some healthy gradients on the models.

Awesome. WNW flow misery mist and sheet drizzle. Thats what this July was missing.

The eastern slopes of the Greens, in central sections have been Ground Zero IMO. Also some spots of the eastern slopes of the Berkshires. The 10-16" zone is highlighted along the Spine of the Taconics, Berks, Greens and into the larger scale eastern side uplift. In VT it includes the Spine and eastern hills, Orange Hills, into NEK. The SSE low level flow meeting with WNW energy aloft... time and time again. ORH Hills down to Tolland Hills are going to precipitate on that SSE low level flow. The zones getting the max drench all month definitely fit a distinct pattern.

Nice stuff, a minute in had some good gales. Whole thing is classic summer storm.

The precip pattern, influenced by the large scale synoptic pattern, has looked like a “hugger” in the means. I won’t lie, it occurred to me too that if this was late summer, we could probably get something to come up and ride the periphery of the mean GL trough.

It’s crazy how that persistent upper level trough over the Great Lakes and the high moisture/dews/PWATS surging north ahead of it, just keep converging over the same areas. Its like upper level dynamics and associated energy rotating through frequently, jet structure, deep moisture, and even local triggers like terrain… there has been no shortage of reasons for the air to rise and take advantage of this sustained moisture feed out of the south. The low heights in the means to the immediate west, with higher than normal heights persisting just to the east… the battle ground for three weeks has been right where the heaviest rain has fallen.

The amount of places now over 10” for the month is pretty insane. Geographically a very large area.

I’ll have to tally mine up, but quick look on Wunderground has the closest station to me at 12.94” and the Lower Village site on other side is 12.02”. Town in the 12-13” range.

Uncle. Make it stop. 1.70”. Creeks are back to raging, eroding, yards under water. Stein can shove it.

Over 1.25” and 3.12”/hr rates. So much water every time.

Well just had the closest lightning strike I’ve ever had. Came down between us and the neighboring building about a quarter mile away. I was out on the porch checking out the gutters as I think one is overwhelmed… but that crack and bolt was enough to cause full flight adrenaline. I’m going to go try to find what it hit after the storm ends. Like Kev, the lightning detection is pretty spot on. Dot is my place. The smaller “Stowe” is about a mile away for distance.