uncle W

last November the AO/NAO were very positive...that changed in December which led to a big storm...1995-96 was neg thru dec...Nov 2007 had a neg ao but pos nao...

staten island can be 5-10 degrees colder than Central Park under the right conditions...

80/61 today...

2018, 2012 by todays standards...2000 is the last time all three months were below average...

the coldest 23 Novembers since 1955 yielded 10 cold winters... 10 medium winters 3 mild... 8 snowy... 8 mediocre... 7 bad to awful... 6 cold and snowy...

November 1959 had what is called wasted cold and you could have said that the first half of Dec 59 but a snowstorm and cold wave just before Christmas changed all that...there was a huge block in Nov. 59...I think the strongest ever...the snowstorm and cold wave came with little or no blocking...winters with a -5sd or lower usually were very cold, snowy or both...March 1960 had a historic snowstorm ( a blizzard by todays standards )...

I put together the snowiest weeks for each year since 1954... snowiest weeks at Central Park... 2021-22.....8.7"...1/23-29... 2020-21...19.9"...2/1-7... 2019-20.....2.1"...1/16-22... 2018-19...10.5"...2/27-3/5... 2017-18...10.5"...12/30-1/5... 2016-17.....9.7"...3/10-16... 2015-16...27.9"...1/17-23... 2014-15...14.4"...1/24-30... 2013-14...15.6"...2/13-19... 2012-13...12.1"...2/3-9... 2011-12.....4.3"...1/21-27... 2010-11...24.1"...1/21-27... 2009-10...20.9"...2/21-28... 2008-09.....8.3"...3/1-7... 2007-08.....6.0"...2/19-25... 2006-07.....5.5"...3/15-21... 2005-06...26.9"...2/10-16.. 2004-05...15.1"...1/17-23... 2003-04...14.0"...12/2-8... 2002-03...19.8"...2/12-18... 2001-02.....3.0"...1/16-22... 2000-01...13.8"...12/30-1/5... 1999-00.....8.0"...1/20-26... 1998-99.....4.5"...3/9-15...2/8-14... 1997-98.....5.0"...3/16-22... 1996-97.....4.4"...1/9-15 1995-96...22.9"...1/7-13... 1994-95...11.1"...2/4-10... 1993-94...21.8"...2/8-14... 1992-93...11.4"...3/13-19... 1991-92.....9.2"...3/17-23... 1990-91.....8.9"...2/22-28... 1989-90.....4.7"...11/22-28... 1988-89.....5.0"...1/1-7... 1987-88...11.2"...1/3-9... 1986-87...11.6"...1/20-26... 1985-86.....9.0"...2/7-13 1984-85...10.0"...2/2-8... 1983-84.....8.3"...3/8-14... 1982-83...21.5"...2/6-12... 1981-82.....9.7"...1/9-15... 1980-81.....8.6"...3/1-7... 1979-80.....4.6"...3/12-18... 1978-79...13.4"...2/13-19... 1977-78...17.7"...2/5-11... 1976-77.....7.4"...1/10-16... 1975-76.....5.0"...2/2-8... 1974-75.....7.9"...2/8-14... 1973-74.....8.0"...2/2-8... 1972-73.....1.8"...1/28-2/3... 1971-72...12.2"...2/17-23... 1970-71.....6.4"...12/26-1/1... 1969-70.....6.8"...12/22-28... 1968-69...15.3"...2/4-10... 1967-68.....6.6"...2/29-3/6... 1966-67...17.2"...2/6-12... 1965-66.....9.9"...1/28-2/3... 1964-65...10.9"...1/10-16... 1963-64...12.5"...1/11-17... 1962-63.....5.1"...1/25-31 1961-62.....6.2"...12/22-28... 1960-61...17.4"...2/1-7... 1959-60...15.1"...2/29-3/6... 1958-59.....6.1"...3/10-16... 1957-58...11.8"...3/15-21... 1956-57.....8.2"...1/26-2/1... 1955-56...19.0"...3/13-19... 1954-55.....3.9"...2/1-7... 1953-54...12.5"...1/10-16...

mei was -1.4 for Aug-Sept...its a solid la nina acording to this... MEI.v2: NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory

sorry...1983-84...even 93-94 had a warm week in February...

last year had plenty of blocking until the second half of February climaxed by two days with the AO below -5sd...not many years had an ao below 5sd... these are the years with at least one day having a -5sd...since 1950...seven el ninos...three la nina...three weak negatives... 1959-60.....11/18...11/19... 1962-63.....01/21... 1965-66.....01/28... 1968-69.....02/13...02/15... 1969-70.....03/04...03/05...03/06...03/07...03/08...03/09...03/10... 1976-77.....12/28...12/29...01/11...01/12...01/13...01/14...01/15...01/16...01/17 1977-78.....02/05...02/06... 1984-85.....01/18...01/19...01/20... 2002-03.....10/18... 2009-10.....12/20...12/21...12/22...12/23...12/24...12/25...01/03...01/04...01/05...01/06...02/06...02/14... 2010-11.....12/18... 2012-13.....03/19...03/20...03/21...03/22... 2020-21.....02/10...02/11... ............................................................................................................... dates..................-AO 1...01/15/1977.....-7.433... 2...01/16/1977.....-7.331... 3...01/14/1977.....-7.311... 4...01/13/1977.....-6.520... 5...03/05/1970.....-6.365... 6...01/19/1985.....-6.226... 7...01/17/1977.....-6.168... 8...03/06/1970.....-6.114... 9...03/04/1970.....-5.918... 10 11/18/1959.....-5.896... 11 12/21/2009.....-5.821... 12 01/12/1977.....-5.802... 13 01/18/1985.....-5.693... 14 03/20/2013.....-5.688... 15 01/20/1985.....-5.581... 16 12/23/2009.....-5.577... 17 11/19/1959.....-5.545... 18 01/03/2010.....-5.533... 19 03/07/1970.....-5.525... 20 03/09/1970.....-5.519... 21 12/22/2009.....-5.508... 22 01/04/2010.....-5.403... 23 03/21/2013.....-5.399... 24 01/02/2010.....-5.384... 25 12/20/2009.....-5.341... 26 01/11/1977.....-5.333... 27 03/08/1970.....-5.320... 28 02/05/1978.....-5.291... 29 12/29/1976.....-5.287... 30 02/10/2021.....-5.285... 31 02/13/1969.....-5.282... 32 12/18/2010.....-5.265... 33 12/24/2009.....-5.256... 34 02/11/2021.....-5.254... 35 03/22/2013.....-5.240... 36 12/28/1976.....-5.206... 37 02/06/2010.....-5.205... 38 03/19/2013.....-5.193... 39 01/05/2010.....-5.180... 40 02/14/2010.....-5.132... 41 01/28/1966.....-5.130... 42 03/10/1970.....-5.115... 43 02/15/1969.....-5.102... 44 10/18/2002.....-5.098... 45 12/25/2009.....-5.052... 46 02/06/1978.....-5.026... 47 01/21/1963.....-5.010...

here in NYC the winters that started cold then got mild in Feb but March returned to wintery weather...all la nina or weak negative years... 1955-56... 1959-60... 1970-71... 1975-76... 1980-81... 1983-84... 2000-01... 2017-18...

it was cold from the end of August 1976 to mid Feb...the overall pattern from Nov 1995-Nov 1996 was a trof in the east...that ended mid December 1996...

not enough snowstorms...

10 were cold... 8 mild/warm... 2 near average...

I looked at 20 warm Octobers on average and what was the snowfall the following winters... 65% got less than 30" of snowfall....60% over 20"... 00.0-09.9.....1 10.0-19.9.....7 20.0-29.9.....5 30.0-39.9.....2 40.0-49.9.....2 50.0-59.9.....1 60.0+............2

October averaged around 58.5 in NYC during the 1940's to 1960's...then it cooled to around 57.5 from the 1970's to 1990's...now its warming again to the 40's and 50's averages...

my pool is still open and the family might get in some late season swimming...closing date is Oct 14th...I picked the date...

today is nothing like the 39 degrees on this date in 1992 or the 36 on this date in 1947...

Accuwx has a cookie cutter la Nina forecast...last year was supposed to have a milder February...there have been two consecutive cold la Nina Feb s in a row before and it could happen again...

NYC's new average snowfall is almost 30"...since 1870 its 27.5"...

yes I did...thanks...to bad they stopped taking snow depth...it is a great indicator on how severe a winter is...

before 1971 the average annual rainfall in NYC was around 42"...since 1971 its around 50"... NYC precipitation... NYC decade precipitation averages since 1870. 10 yr.............Ave. per year. lowest and highest year 1870's..............43.73"........39.25".......51.26" 1880's..............43.54"........35.37".......57.16" 1890's..............41.84"........35.37".......48.26" 1900's..............44.84"........37.44".......58.32" 1910's..............44.24"........33.72".......58.00" 1920's..............44.92"........37.76".......56.06" 1930's..............44.60"........33.85".......53.53" 1940's..............42.16"........36.24".......48.51" 1950's..............39.59"........35.58".......45.20" 1960's..............39.74"........26.09".......48.54" 1970's..............52.31"........35.29".......67.03" 1980's..............49.96"........38.11".......80.56" 1990's..............47.29"........40.42".......60.92" 2000's..............53.18"........35.92".......61.70" 2010's..............50.75"........38.51".......72.81" 1870- 2019................45.51" 1990- 2019................50.41" 1870- 1969................42.92" 1970- 2019................50.70" ........................................................................................................................................... 1826-1864 from Jamiaca N.Y...1865-1868- Central Park... years.................ave..........lowest........highest 1826-1835.......37.95"........28.78"........55.67" 1836-1845.......36.67"........32.13"........44.57" 1846-1855.......39.50"........30.08"........46.40" 1856-1865.......41.30"........31.08"........59.68" 1866-1869.......48.57"........38.26"........57.40" 4yr av

what's the longest snow cover for Boston?...NYC is about 55-60 days with at least an inch on the ground set in a few winters...

here's a statistical tidbit for September...todays low temp in Central Park was 54...lowest so far this month...if it stands it will be with these years that had a September minimum of 54 since 1960... 1960... 1982... 2002... 2010... 2016... 2017... some great analogs for snow in there...

well 1933-34 was one of the coldest winters of all time and holds the record for the lowest minimum ever recorded in Central Park with a -15 on Feb 9th...there was a blizzard after Christmas and almost 30" of snow in February...1944-45 was very cold with average snow...1999-00 had one cold and snowy month starting mid January...otherwise terrible...1975-76 was cold but with below average snowfall...all four winters were la nina or a weak negative...2021 fits right in...we most likely will not see anything like a 1933-34 winter...1999-00 was a second year la nina but stronger than this year....1975-76 was a second year la nina but stronger...the average for the four of these winters would be an average winter...