uncle W

2015?...1977 had its last cold wave in early Feb...1978 did have many days with a max below freezing but it never got as cold as 1977...

Thanksgivingwx.pdf (weather.gov)

look more closely...Feb 1942 was the earliest last freeze...2/28...

PowerPoint Presentation (noaa.gov)

first and last freeze dates in Central Park... season....first.freeze....last.freeze.. 1876-77.......10/15.......4/08 1877-78.......11/07.......3/26 1878-79.......11/05.......4/06 1879-80.......10/25.......4/12 1880-81.......11/18.......4/07 1881-82.......11/22.......4/12 1882-83.......11/03.......4/03 1883-84.......11/12.......4/06 1884-85.......11/19.......4/14 1885-86.......11/01.......4/04 1886-87.......11/07.......4/19 1887-88.......10/30.......4/25 1888-89.......11/17.......3/31 1889-90.......10/24.......4/19 1890-91.......11/21.......5/06 1891-92.......11/04.......4/25 1892-93.......11/11.......3/30 1893-94.......11/15.......4/09 1894-95.......11/07.......4/05 1895-96.......11/12.......4/08 1896-97.......11/23.......4/20 1897-98.......11/18.......4/07 1898-99.......11/24.......4/06 1899-00.......11/12.......4/11 1900-01.......11/15.......3/31 1901-02.......11/10.......3/20 1902-03.......12/05.......4/05 1903-04.......11/07.......4/20 1904-05.......10/31.......3/15 1905-06.......11/14.......4/01 1906-07.......11/29.......4/03 1907-08.......12/03.......4/05 1908-09.......11/04.......4/11 1909-10.......11/30.......3/18 1910-11.......11/20.......4/03 1911-12.......11/03.......4/04 1912-13.......11/03.......3/28 1913-14.......11/11.......4/13 1914-15.......11/10.......4/04 1915-16.......11/18.......4/09 1916-17.......11/15.......4/10 1917-18.......10/31.......4/12 1918-19.......11/24.......4/26 1919-20.......11/14.......4/11 1920-21.......11/12.......4/11 1921-22.......11/06.......4/21 1922-23.......11/21.......4/14 1923-24.......11/09.......4/03 1924-25.......11/16.......4/21 1925-26.......10/29.......4/20 1926-27.......11/04.......3/28 1927-28.......11/07.......4/16 1928-29.......10/30.......3/18 1929-30.......11/22.......4/24 1930-31.......11/05.......3/14 1931-32.......11/07.......4/13 1932-33.......11/20.......3/25 1933-34.......10/26.......3/29 1934-35.......11/14.......4/16 1935-36.......11/23.......4/08 1936-37.......10/26.......3/31 1937-38.......11/21.......4/07 1938-39.......11/24.......4/13 1939-40.......11/13.......4/15 1940-41.......10/19.......3/31 1941-42.......11/25.......2/28 1942-43.......11/13.......4/16 1943-44.......11/15.......4/06 1944-45.......11/23.......3/11 1945-46.......11/21.......3/12 1946-47.......11/23.......3/31 1947-48.......11/19.......4/04 1948-49.......12/11.......3/20 1949-50.......11/22.......4/14 1950-51.......11/16.......3/27 1951-52.......11/03.......3/17 1952-53.......11/29.......3/11 1953-54.......11/06.......4/04 1954-55.......11/10.......3/29 1955-56.......11/19.......3/28 1956-57.......11/10.......3/25 1957-58.......11/11.......4/09 1958-59.......11/28.......3/29 1959-60.......11/17.......3/27 1960-61.......11/07.......3/21 1961-62.......11/10.......3/09 1962-63.......11/07.......3/23 1963-64.......12/01.......4/05 1964-65.......11/21.......4/01 1965-66.......10/29.......3/29 1966-67.......11/04.......4/12 1967-68.......11/08.......4/06 1968-69.......11/21.......4/01 1969-70.......10/23.......4/11 1970-71.......11/23.......3/27 1971-72.......11/08.......4/09 1972-73.......10/20.......3/21 1973-74.......11/10.......4/10 1974-75.......10/19.......4/10 1975-76.......10/31.......4/12 1976-77.......10/27.......4/10 1977-78.......11/14.......4/03 1978-79.......11/25.......4/08 1979-80.......11/30.......4/17 1980-81.......11/16.......3/21 1981-82.......11/25.......4/08 1982-83.......11/13.......3/30 1983-84.......11/13.......3/18 1984-85.......11/19.......4/10 1985-86.......12/02.......3/22 1986-87.......11/13.......4/01 1987-88.......11/11.......3/23 1988-89.......10/31.......3/22 1989-90.......11/18.......3/28 1990-91.......11/09.......4/13 1991-92.......11/26.......4/13 1992-93.......11/08.......3/20 1993-94.......11/21.......3/19 1994-95.......11/23.......4/06 1995-96.......11/09.......3/29 1996-97.......11/12.......4/10 1997-98.......11/13.......3/23 1998-99.......12/22.......3/16 1999-00.......11/30.......4/09 2000-01.......11/20.......3/28 2001-02.......12/16.......4/07 2002-03.......11/27.......4/08 2003-04.......11/09.......4/06 2004-05.......11/09.......3/16 2005-06.......11/18.......3/22 2006-07.......12/04.......4/09 2007-08.......11/11.......3/30 2008-09.......11/18.......3/24 2009-10.......12/07.......3/27 2010-11.......12/04.......3/29 2011-12.......12/10.......3/27 2012-13.......11/06.......3/23 2013-14.......11/12.......4/16 2014-15.......11/18.......4/01 2015-16.......11/24.......4/10 2016-17.......12/09.......3/23 2017-18.......11/10........4/09 2018-19.......11/14........3/18 2019-20.......11/08.......3/01 2020-21.......10/31.......4/03

66/39 today...six straight days with a min in the 30's...

NYC never had heavy snow falling Christmas morning at 7am...maybe 1902 which had a storm that started before dawn Christmas day...in my life time snow never fell Christmas morning...it either stopped before dawn or started after lunch...

this is what I compiled for NYC white Christmas's... 1876.....1" 1880.....1-2"..... 1883...12"+......5" 12/25 1884.....3".......3" 12/24 1892.....trace... 1896.....1-2"..... 1902.......6.5" 12/25... 1904.....T-1".....3" 12/25... 1908.....trace........ 1912.....11".........11.4" 12/24 1914.....trace........0.6" 12/24.....0.4" 12/21... 1917.......4"..........9.6" 12/12-14.....0.2" 12/17..... 1919.......3"..........2.8" 12/24-25.....1.9" 12/19.....2.1" 12/16-17 1924.....trace.......0.8" 12/24-25 1925.....trace.......0.2" 12/24-25 1929.......1"..........1.4" 12/23 1930.......2"..........3.9" 12/23-24... 1935.....trace.......0.4" 12/23.....0.4" 12/20.....1.6" 12/25-26 1945.......7"..........8.1" 12/19-20...3.2" 12/14...0.6" 12/10...rain Christmas night... 1947.......1"..........2.5" 12/23...26" 12/26... 1948.......5"........16.0" 12/19-20 1955......trace.......2.7" 12/22 1959.......4"........13.7" 12/21-22 1960.......1"........15.2" 12/11-12.....1.3" 12/19 1961.......6"..........6.2" 12/23-24 1962......trace.......2.7" 12/21-22......0.3" 12/25...rain Christmas night... 1963.......6"..........6.6" 12/23-24......1.4" 12/18.....2.3" 12/12 1966.......7"..........7.1" 12/24-25......1.2" 12/21 1967......trace.......1.0" 12/23....rain Christmas night... 1970......trace.......2.1" 12/21-23 1975......trace.......1.8" 12/22...0.5" 12/25...Rain Christmas night... 1980......trace.......1.0" 12/24...0.6" 12/23 1983.......1"..........1.0" 12/23-24 1993......trace.......trace 12/24-25 1995.......4"..........7.7" 12/19-20...0.5" 12/16...1.7" 12/14...1.5" 12/9... 1998.......1"..........2.0" 12/23-24 2000......trace.......0.7" 12/20 2002......trace.......trace 12/25...5" 12/25 after morning rain... 2009.......2"........10.9" 12/19-20....rain Christmas night... trace is less than 0.5"...

from 1959-1963 NYC had at least an inch on the ground for Christmas...then in 1966 there was a Christmas snowstorm... 1961...snow ends near midnight Christmas eve with 6-10" on the ground... Showing Image 14100 (nycsubway.org) 1963...6-8" fell 12/23 and ends early 12/24...That evening another half inch fell after dark...

NYC decade snow averages... decade.......................Oct.....Nov.....Dec.....Jan.....Feb.....Mar.....Apr.....total 1870-71 to 1879-80......0.1.....0.9.....6.7......9.7......8.8.....4.1......1.6.....31.9 1880-81 to 1889-90........0......1.8.....7.1......8.8......7.6.....6.8......0.7.....32.8 1890-91 to 1899-00........0......3.3.....4.3......8.7....10.6.....7.1......0.8.....34.8 1900-01 to 1909-10........0......0.3.....6.2......9.1......9.2.....4.8......0.6.....30.2 1910-11 to 1919-20........0......0.2.....7.5......4.8......9.5.....8.3......2.3.....32.6 1920-21 to 1929-30......0.1.....0.1.....4.2......8.5....10.1.....2.2......0.9.....26.1 1930-31 to 1939-40........T......2.2.....4.3......6.4......8.5.....3.5......0.8.....25.7 1940-41 to 1949-50........T......0.6.....9.1......7.4......8.6.....4.8......1.1.....31.6 1950-51 to 1959-60......0.1.....0.5.....4.7......5.2......3.4.....8.0......0.8.....22.7 1960-61 to 1969-70........T......0.3.....7.4......7.7....10.6.....4.6......0.1.....30.7 1970-71 to 1979-80........T......0.3.....1.7......7.3......9.5.....2.4......0.1.....21.3 1980-81 to 1989-90........0......0.6.....2.1......7.8......5.3.....2.9......1.1.....19.8 1990-91 to 1999-00........0......0.3.....2.9......6.9......9.1.....5.4......0.2.....24.8 2000-01 to 2009-10........T........T......7.8......6.5....13.3.....3.5......0.4.....31.5 2010-11 to 2019-20......0.3.....1.1.....4.4....12.9......8.1.....6.0......0.6..…33.4 1870-71 to 2009-10........T......0.8.....5.4......7.5......8.9.....4.9......0.8.....28.3

a forgotten storm... 1953 from the Brooklyn Eagle... http://bklyn.newspapers.com/image/56100489/ http://bklyn.newspapers.com/image/53930636 http://bklyn.newspapers.com/image/56100527/ http://bklyn.newspapers.com/image/56100548/

it snowed 4" on April 8th 1956...I was in the first grade and vaguely remember it...I remember the April snow in 1957 better...from March 12th 1956 to April 8th NYC got over 24" of snow...1955-56 was well on its way to being the seventh lackluster winter in a row for NYC until that happened...

1970-71 was a dud from February on in NYC but great north and west...I remember seeing on the news about roofs collapsing in Port Jervis NY from heavy wet snow...the city got cold rain...1970-71 is one of those years that had snow on Christmas day and New Years day...1975-76 did it too...Boston got some heavy snow before Christmas 1975...

I thought 1983-84 was a good analog to 2017-18 cause both had a record warm February followed by a stormy March...

lousy January's in a good winter...1967 comes to mind...

October nao value came in at -2.29 which is just short of the record of -2.30 set in 1968...-2.28 in 2002...-2.24 in 2006...-2.06 in 2012...2021 is the lowest none el nino year...

the last time a none el nino year that had a strongly neg nao and the following winter was bad for snow lovers in the NYC area ws 1988... 1993...53.4" of snow fell the following winter regardless of what the nao was...very cold winter... 2003...42.0" of snow fell...very cold winter... 2005...40.0" of snow fell...fast start in December fizzled out until Feb and the largest snowfall on record at the time...mild winter on average... 2010...61.9" of snow Fell...20" and 19" storms...cold winter on average... 2012...26.1" of snow fell...early November son of Sandy storm...Feb and March had above average snowfall...mild on average... 2013...57.4" of snow fell...cold winter... 2020...38.6" of snow fell...mild winter on average but two big storms... some earlier years on the list were 1960 and 1966...two 50" seasons...the six years from 1970-1988 were not snowy but four were quite cold...1988 was the only year that was mild and snowless...four were cold but snow was below average...

the October nao number is not posted yet but I bet its at least -1sd...some other none el nino years with a strongly neg Oct. nao...since 1993 NYC has averaged over 45" of snow which is 50% above average... 2020... 2013... 2012... 2010... 2005... 2003... 1993... 1988... 1981... 1980... 1975... 1973... 1970... 1966... 1960... 1955...

meh...1957-58 was the strongest solar sun spot year and the north east had a very good winter...

it means no snow in December...

these are the years I found with the first freeze in Dec... 1902...1.5" on 12/5...6.5" 12/25... 1907...3.8" on 12/2-4... 1948...5" on 12/15...17" on 12/19... 1963...2" 12/12...7" 12/23-24... 1985...Trace Christmas day... 1998...2" 12/23-24... 2001................................................. 2006................................................... 2009...11" 12/19-20... 2010...20" 12/26... 2011..................................................... 2016...3" 12/17...

so is 1998 with the latest first 32 or lower...it got cold enough just before Christmas for a little white Christmas in a sea of torture...

last year had the warmest Nov on record after the first freezing morning in October since 1988...1975 did the same thing...then it got very cold for six to seven weeks...That probably wont happen this year but a repeat of last year I'd sign up for...

1948 got two snowstorms a week after the first freezing day at LGA...16-19" on 12/19-20th...