uncle W

I remember seeing the last of the green trees the beginning of Dec 1975...it got cold fast in December 1975...November 1975 was the warmest on record at the time...

December dates with the most 6" storms in NYC... 12/5... 8.1" in 1886... 8.0" in 2003... 7.9" in 1926... 6.0" in 2002... 12/19-20... 8.3" in 1945... 16.0" in 1948... 7.9" in 1995... 10.9" in 2009... 12/24... 7.5" in 1883... 11.4" in 1912... 7.1" in 1966... 12/26-27... 8.0" in 1890... 18.0" in 1872... 11.2" in 1933... 26.4" in 1947... 20.0" in 2010... no other dates had more than two 6" storms...most dates had none...12/26 has the most...

I'm not worried about some warm days the first part of December...1960, 1966 and some other years had record warmth the first week in dec and snow at the end of the second week...I'll take snow when ever it comes (i have no say anyway) but I'd rather have it begin the week before Christmas...

if you look at 2017-18's daily AO it snowed most of the time the AO was negative big time or briefly...

last 20 winters in NYC... year...........DJF ONI...snowfall...Dec-Feb temp... 2001-02..........-0.1..........3.5".....41.5.....warm snowless... 2002-03.........+0.9.......49.3".....31.2...cold snowy... 2003-04.........+0.4.......42.6".....32.4...cold snowy... 2004-05.........+0.6.......41.0".....35.4...ave...snowy... 2005-06..........-0.9.......40.0".....37.3...mild snowy... 2006-07..........+0.6.......12.4".....36.5...mild snowless... 2007-08..........-1.6........11.9".....36.4...mild snowless... 2008-09..........-0.8.......27.6".....34.2...cold near ave snow... 2009-10..........+1.5.......51.4".....33.8...cold snowy... 2010-11...........-1.4........61.9".....32.7...cold snowy... 2011-12...........-0.9.........7.4".....40.5...warm snowless... 2012-13..........-0.4.......26.1".....36.9...mild near ave snow... 2013-14..........-0.4.......57.4".....33.0...cold snowy... 2014-15.........+0.5.......50.3".....31.7...cold snowy... 2015-16.........+2.5.......32.8".....41.0...warm ave snow... 2016-17..........-0.3.......30.2".....39.3...warm ave snow... 2017-18..........-0.9.......40.9".....36.2...mild snowy... 2018-19..........+0.7.......20.5".....36.2...mild below ave snow... 2019-20..........+0.5........4.8".....39.1...warm snowless... 2020-21..........-1.0.......38.6".....36.1...mild snowy

Nice analog

came across this article about a snowstorm in the northeast in 1873... 1873... http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030214/1873-11-19/ed-1/seq-1/

found this article about a DC tornado on 11/17/27... http://bklyn.newspapers.com/image/58334027/ http://bklyn.newspapers.com/image/58334036

Feb was the coldest snowiest month last winter in NYC...Some la nina winters are like that...NYC had three in the 1970's with February being the coldest snowiest month...72, 74, 75...granted the winters were not cold on average...only February and some years March too...Decembers were warmer than average including last year...

my tomato plant is still alive...

31 for my first freeze...Central Park 39...

December was colder than average… rest of the winter was mild…Snowfall in nyc in 1950-51 was way below average…coldest temp and biggest snow was on 12/26 coinciding with the ao’s strongest negative…it was during a drier/colder time…

the April blizzard salvaged that winter in NYC...the Poconos had snow cover from mid Dec to mis March...then 13.5" on April 6th...another 2" a few days later...

1989 was cold...I don't see that kind of cold or storm...1971 was cold before the storm but moderated and most of the precip was rain in the city...Poconos got snow...

I was thinking of 1971 as an analog?... 11 24 1971.gif.crdownload

lowest AO numbers for December... -5.821...12/21/2009...11" snowstorm 12/19-20...snow on the ground Christmas... -5.287...12/29/1976....2" snowfall 12/29...snow Christmas night... -5.265...12/18/2010...20" 12/26-27... -4.688...12/29/2000...12" 12/30...trace on the ground Christmas... -4.547...12/27/1968.....2" 12/28... -4.470...12/20/1963...7" 12/23-24...6" on the ground Christmas... -4.353...12/19/1995...8" 12/19-20...4" on the ground Christmas...flurries at night... -4.353...12/26/1950...3" 12/26... -4.159...12/31/1962...cold wave...flurries...big storm in the Gulf of Maine...1" on the ground Christmas afternoon... -4.147...12/13/1966...wet snow 12/13-14...7" on the ground Christmas morning...

1995-96 had two major thaws the last week of Jan and Feb 1996...2002-03 was a colder winter in NYC...1993-94 was colder also...Feb 1994 had a major thaw...

it was locked in from Nov 95 to Nov 96...then it flipped...

if we get another -5sd AO I'll bet my house we see a blockbuster snowstorm this winter...I'd rather see it in December like 2009 and 2010...2002 had one in October and 1959 had one in November...not only did they both have a blockbuster snowstorm but snow on the ground for Christmas...

of the 24 official la nina winters since 1954-55 only 1970-71, 2005-06, 2008-09 had a stronger DJF oni than the NDJ oni...some years peaked in NDJ and then faded...some years peaked before NDJ and was fading already...last year's NDJ oni was -1.2 and weakening...it peaked at -1.3 in the OND period...

the highest minimum today is 56...so far 2021 is 61 for the min...by midnight it probably will get below 56 but this is the warmest 11/12 morning on record by a lot...2020 had record high mins on the 10th and 11th... 11/1 65 in 1956 63 in 1971 62 in 1982 11/2 67 in 1971 64 in 2018 64 in 1929 11/3 64 in 1936 62 in 1982 60 in 2003 11/4 62 in 1982 61 in 1975 61 in 1961 11/5 63 in 1938 62 in 1961 61 in 1959+ 11/6 66 in 2015 64 in 1938 61 in 1994+ 11/7 63 in 1938 60 in 1885 59 in 1912 11/8 63 in 1975 62 in 1996 59 in 1895 11/9 64 in 1895 62 in 1945 60 in 1975 11/10 60 in 2020 58 in 1977 58 in 1966 11/11 64 in 2020 60 in 2002 57 in 1970 11/12 56 in 1935 56 in 1912 55 in 1982 11/13 59 in 1909 57 in 1945 55 in 1961 11/14 58 in 1951 57 in 2008 57 in 1961 11/15 61 in 1989 58 in 2011 58 in 2008+ 11/16 59 in 2006 58 in 1927 57 in 1928 11/17 60 in 1927 57 in 1928 53 in 1918 11/18 57 in 1928 55 in 1921 54 in 1958+ 11/19 57 in 2015 57 in 1906 55 in 2003+ 11/20 62 in 1985 56 in 1913 56 in 19

I probably have the same almanac somewhere...as a sports fan 1968 was Mantles last season and the Jets going to the Super bowl and winning...The Lindsey snowstorm in Feb 69...Woodstock in August 69...Mets win in October 69...after that no more champianships or major storms until 1977-78...

I'll stick my neck out for at least a good December...Last year was mild but had one good snowstorm which is all you can ask for these days...

winters that had most of the snowfall fall in Dec...then again in Feb or March in NYC...el nino years in red...la nina and neutral in black...2005-06, 2007-08 and 2020-21 were la nina years that had most or all its snow in Dec and Feb... 1958-59...Dec...Mar...13" total 1959-60...Dec...Mar...39" total 1961-62...Dec...Feb...18" total 1966-67...Dec...Feb/Mar...51" total 1967-68...Dec...Mar...20" total... 1968-69...Dec...Feb...30" total... 2005-06...Dec...Feb...40" total... 2007-08...Dec...Feb...12" total... 2009-10...Dec...Feb...51" total... 2020-21...Dec...Feb...39" total... Two years had snow in November and again in Feb and March... 2012-13...Nov...Feb...26" total... 2018-19...Nov...Mar...21" total...