uncle W

I remember 1975 having green trees in early December when I lived in Brooklyn...an endless summer and slow step down will do that...hopefully the bottom will fall out in Dec like some past years...

35 now with the first frost of the season...

36 now...

I like Christmas music but not in November...Christmas week only...

shows how out of touch they are...

I forgot 1989...it ended after November...

going back some years... 1978...29.2"...major storm... 1967...19.5"...dry cold winter... 1959...39.2"...major storm... 1952...15.1"...winter ended mid January...

I think November could be a little above average before a possible colder December...these are the years that had Sept/Oct/Nov above average...there were years with two above and a near average month that I left off... 1946... 1953... 1961... 1970... 1973... 1985... 2016...

thats the storm I mention that came on Jan 12th...

last year was the warmest Nov on record...the winter had almost 40" and had two major storms...

there was one predicted after the Dec 1995 snowstorm that never materialized...the other one was after the blizzard of 96 that gave us 1-3" and turned to rain...

the only storm that was bigger or even to the first one was in Feb. 1994...

in the winter time after a winter storm there is usually another storm in the forecast...I can remember that going back to the March 1960 storm...most of the time the storm never came or was minor...The video of the 1967 blizzard on you tube says another storm is on the horizen...that turned out to be a 2" event...

its windy...

the last 30 years yielded 14 years with less than 10" of snow...11 between 10-20"...1 between 30-40"...2 between 40-50"...1 over 50"...almost half of the years were less than 10" so expectations should be low...25 years were less than 30"...this is for DCA... dcasnow.pdf (weather.gov)

I remember going to school the day after the Feb 1958 storm because school was open...it was cloudy all day...light snows followed that storm...Dec 1960 had a few cold waves that sent temps into single digits after the big blizzard...that storm should have come Christmas eve and day...I have never seen heavy snow falling Christmas morning...that storm and the Jan 61 storm would have been great for Christmas...the 1960's had there share of storms followed by arctic blasts...something you dont see much lately...

he's not doing a good job if some get through...

I was in the third grade for the Dec 57 storm...I have vauge memories of it snowing during the day and playing with leftovers days later...NYC got 3-4" in the 1958 storm...I have no recolection of that one... Dec 1958, 1962 and 1963 had at least seven days in a row with a max temp below freezing ending around Dec 20th...62 and 63 was followed by snow and a white Christmas...

rain to my east...Sun breaking out thru broken clouds...

its nice to see the models get colder in November but it means nothing if December is mild...maybe this year will buck the trend of mild snowless Christmas's...the last time there was sustained cold was the end of Dec 2017 to the first third of January.. since 1992 if October had a good neg nao and wasn't an el nino year NYC had average to above average snowfall with at least one big storm...1988 was the last time October had a neg nao and the following winter was snowstarved...(except for Atlantic City) year.......... 1992-93..... 1993-94..... 2003-04... 2005-06.... 2010-11.... 2012-13.... 2013-14.... 2020-21..... 2021-22....

November Average temperature for NYC by the decades... decade....Ave.t.....High.....low....ave.max/min...max...min...rainfall...snowfall... 1870's.....42.2.....45.5.....37.0...........................76.......7.....3.66".....0.9" 1880's.....43.2.....45.5.....38.7.....67.3.....21.2.....71.....13.....3.54".....1.8" 1890's.....45.1.....49.9.....41.5.....66.7.....24.1.....72.....14.....3.76".....3.3" 1900's.....45.7.....51.6.....39.7.....65.8.....26.6.....74.....19.....1.91".....0.3" 1910's.....45.0.....47.8.....41.6.....69.5.....26.7.....76.....19.....2.90".....0.2" 1920's.....45.6.....49.2.....43.9.....70.0.....24.1.....76.....12.....2.65".....0.1" 1930's.....46.2.....51.9.....41.8.....70.4.....21.4.....78.....12.....3.05".....2.2" 1940's.....47.5.....52.4.....44.2.....70.4.....27.5.....74.....23.....3.59".....0.6" 1950's.....47.1.....49.7.....43.5.....70.5......24.5.....84.....16.....3.80".....0.5" 1960's.....47.3.....50.4.....42.5.....69.9.....28.7.....78.....20.....3.73".....0.3" 1970's.....47.6.....52.5.....41.7......71.5......25.7......81.....17......4.91".....0.3" 1980's.....47.7.....50.4.....44.6.....72.4......26.9.....79.....18.....4.97".....0.6" 1990's.....47.6.....52.0.....43.0.....72.0.....27.7......80.....23.....3.41".....0.3" 2000's.....48.6.....52.7.....45.3.....70.0.....28.0.....79.....22.....3.77".....trace 2010's.....47.2.....52.8.....43.9.....70.1......27.4.....74.....15......3.48".....1.1"... 2020.......53.0.....53.0.....53.0.....75.0.....30.0.....75.....30.....3.99".....0 1870-. 2019........46.2.....52.8.....37.0…..69.8.....25.8.....84......7.......3.54".....0.8" 1990- 2019........47.8.....52.8.....43.9.....70.7......27.7......80.....15.......3.55".....0.5"

we are having another negative nao October...there aren't many years that had a neg nao on average from Oct thru March...1968-69 did it last...there are not many years with a neg nao from Oct or brfore thru January...2010-11 did it last... neg Oct years and the next three months...regardless of what the nao did after October there are some great analogs on the list...a few duds also...but the great ones win out... n=neg p=pos a=neutral year..........Oct...Nov...Dec...Jan... 1952-53.....n.......n.......n.......p... 1955-56.....n.......n.......p.......n... 1960-61.....n.......n.......a........p... 1966-67.....n.......a.......p........n 1968-69.....n.......n.......n........n 1970-71......n.......n.......n........n... 1973-74.....n.......n.......p.......p... 1975-76.....n.......p.......a........n 1980-81.....n.......n.......p........p... 1981-82.....n.......n.......a........n... 1982-83.....n.......p.......p.......p 1988-89.....n.......n.......p.......p... 1992-93.....n.......p.......p.......p... 1993-94.....n.......p.......p.......p... 1994-95.....n.......p.......p.......p... 1997-98.....n.......n.......n.......p... 2002-03....n.......n.......n.......p... 2003-04....n.......p.......p.......n... 2004-05....n.......p.......p.......p... 2005-06....n.......n.......n.......p 2006-07....n.......p.......p.......p 2009-10.....n.......a.......n.......n... 2010-11.....n.......n.......n.......n... 2012-13.....n.......n.......p.......p... 2013-14.....n.......p.......p.......p... 2014-15.....n.......p.......p.......p... 2019-20.....n.......p.......p.......p... 2020-21.....n.......p.......n.......n...

someone told me this is common in my part of the island...First one I ever seen here...

it doesn't matter how strong the enso will be if there is blocking...1973-74 was the strongest la nina to start the winter and with some blocking it wasn't that bad in the NYC area...2010-11 had strong blocking in December and it was one of the best winters around these parts...without blocking you get a 1988-89 winter with hardly any snow...