uncle W

I have a gecko living in front of my house… I uploaded the pictures on two other sites but it won’t take here…

a look at years with a warm October and how the fall progressed... warm Oct/Nov/Dec 1953... 1973... 1990... Warm Oct cold Nov mild Dec... 1949... 1959... 1971... 1984... 2007... 2013... 2014... warm Oct/Nov...Cold Dec... 1950... 1961... 1963... 1975... 1985... warm Oct Cold Nov/Dec... 1954... 1955... 1968... 1995... 2017...

I got my snowman19 vaccination last year...

last February was one of the best for snow cover...this is how it stacks up with the best... February at Newark...... year......01..02..03..04..05..06..07..08..09..10..11..12..13..14..15..16..17..18..19..20..21..22..23..24..25..26..27..28..29.. 2021.....17..17....17....14...11...9....13..12....11..11..13..12..11..10....8....5....3....5....5....5....3....2....1....T....0....0....0....0 2017......T....t.....0....0....0....0....0....0....8....6....5....3....2....2....1....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0...….. 2015......5....8....8....8....7....7....7....6....6....6....6....6....5....5....6....5....8....7....6....5....9....8....5....5....5....4....4....4...…... 2014......T....T....8....7...10...9....8....8....9....9....9....8...17..18..17..16..16..16..15..13..10...9....4....1....T....T.....t.....0...…... 2011.....15..15..14..13..13..11...9....6....5....4....3....2....1....1....0....0....0....0....t.....0....3....2....1....t.....0....0....0....0...…... 2010......0....1....2....0....t.....T....0....0....T...13..11...8....8....7....6....8....7....7....6....2....0....t.....t.....0....7...12...9....6...…... year......01..02..03..04..05..06..07..08..09..10..11..12..13..14..15..16..17..18..19..20..21..22..23..24..25..26..27..28..29.. 2006......0....0....0....0....0....t.....0....0....0....t.....3...20..14..10...9....4....1....t.....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....T...…... 2005......7....6....5....5....4....T....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....t.....0....0....t.....0....0....2....5....3....1....4....6....6....1....6...….. 2003......0....0....0....0....t.....t.....6....5....4....4....3....3....3....3....2....5...22..23..19..15..13..10...5....2....2....1....1....1...…... 1996......T....1....7....7....6....5....4....4....1....0....0....t.....0....2....t.....0....9....9....5....3....2....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0... year......01..02..03..04..05..06..07..08..09..10..11..12..13..14..15..16..17..18..19..20..21..22..23..24..25..26..27..28..29.. 1995......0....0....0....9....5....5....5....4....4....4....2....T....T....T....T....T.....T....0....0....0....t.....0....0....t.....0....1....T....0...……... 1994......T....T....T....T....T.....T....T....9...10...9...18..18..17..15..15..13..10..10...9....6....1....T....2....1....1....2....1....T...……. 1987......5....4....3....2....1....T....0....0....T....T.....T....2....2....2....1....T....T....T....T.....0....0....0....4....1....T....0....0....0...….. 1986......T....0....0....2....1....0....6....7....5....4....8....7....5....5....5....4....4....2....T.....0....0....0....t.....T....T....0....0....0...…... 1985......1....3....3....3....6....6....6....6....6....6....5....3....T....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0...…... 1983......0....0....0....t.....0....3....5....5....4....4...17..19..17..11...9....8....6....3....1....T.....T....0....0....0....0....0....0....0...…... year......01..02..03..04..05..06..07..08..09..10..11..12..13..14..15..16..17..18..19..20..21..22..23..24..25..26..27..28..29.. 1979......0....0....0....0....0....0....6....6....4....4....4....4....4....4....3....3....3....3...19..19..15...7....3....1....T....T....T....T...………. 1978......T....T....T....T....T....18..19..17..15..13..12..11...9....8....8....6....5....4....4....4....4....3....3....3....4....2....1....1...…....... 1975......t.....0....0....T....3....2....t.....0....T....T....t.....9....8....6....5....3....1....T....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0...0......... 1972......T....T....T....0....0....3....3....2....2....2....1....T....0....0....0....0.....1....T....3....2....2....1....4....4....2....1....T....T...0.... 1969......T....0....t.....T....T.....0....0....t....13..14..13..11...9....8....8....7....5....4....4....4....4....3....3....3....2....1....1....1........... 1967......T....t.....0....t.....0....4...15..14..12..13..12...9....7....6....4....T....T....2....T....T.....1....0....3....1....1....T....T....1........ 1966......7....9....8....6....5....4....3....3....2....1....T....0....0....0....0....1....0....0....T....T.....0....0....0....3....4....3....2....T....... 1964......T....0....0....0....0....0....0....1....T....3....2....2....T....T.....1....1....T....T....6....5....3....2....1....T....T.....T....T....3....3.... 1961......7....7...14..26..25..21..16..12..11...9....8....7....7....5....4....4....3....2....1....0....0....0....0....0....0....t.....0....t...……. 1958......1....T....t.....T....0....0....1....1....T.....0....0....t.....0....0....4...13..13...9....8....6....6....5....3....2....1....T....T....0...... 1948......7....5....6...11..11..11..10..10..10...9....9....8....7....5....4....3....1....T....T....T.....0....3....2....1....T....0....0....t.....0 1947......0....t.....0....1....1....1....T....7....6....3....1....T....T....T....T....T.....T....0....0....8...11..10...9....8....6....5....3....3.....

terrible...

so far the lowest temp for this October is 47...45 is the record tied in 1971... 45 in 1946....great February with a major storm... 45 in 1971.....very good February... 44 in 2004.....very good winter with a major storm in January... 43 in 1994.....good February in a bad winter... 43 in 1927.....lousy winter... 43 in 2019.....horrible winter...

good winter... 12/9-12.....1-2"... 12/19-20...1-2"... 12/24-25...6-8"... 12/31-1/1...6-8"... 1/12............3-6"... 2/6-8..........foot or more... 2/15...........3-6"... 3/5.............3-6"... 4/1...............1-2"... total..........36-52"......

the bubble will burst and it will get cold and even snow...the question is when...in 1998 it took until Dec 20th...if the pattern does reverse in November it might reverse back to warmer than average again in December...1971 did that...

Like last year

warm la nina Octobers and the following winter snowfall... 1908-09...20.3"... 1949-50...13.8"... 1950-51...11.6"... 1954-55...11.5"... 1955-56...35.0"... 1971-72...21.9"... 1973-74...23.5"... 1984-85...24.1"... 1995-96...75.6"... 2007-08...11,9"... 2017-18...40.9"...

1995 was the last time a la nina November that had snow...1950, 1951 and 1971 had big storms but with very little snow in the city...upstate New York was clobbered around thanksgiving 1971...

I remember back in 1971 when October was warm to the end...November turned out colder than normal with record cold...December reverted back to warmer than normal...it took until late January for real winter pattern to lock in for a month...like last year February was the coldest snowiest month...the real winter pattern was locked in for a month...1995-96 was locked in from 12/9 to 1/12...then a pause...then three more weeks the beginning of February and on and off in March ...

1970-71 was pretty cold from Christmas into the first week of Feb...its one of the coldest for that period... hope my math is correct... her is the list... year...Dec 20th-Feb 6th... 1976-77.....23.6... 1947-48.....25.9... 1980-81.....25.9... 1969-70.....26.4... 1993-94.....26.8... 1970-71.....26.9... 1960-61.....27.2... 1975-76.....28.4... 1995-96.....28.7... 1977-78.....28.8... 1983-84.....29.3... 1962-63.....29.4... 2010-11.....29.5... 1967-68.....29.8

Octobers averaged 58.5 from 1940-1969... 1970-2009 it was 57.1...since 2010 its over 59.0...The same goes for the fall in general...it was a steady average until the 2010's...Now does Octobers get cooler, stablize or keep getting milder?...only time will tell...

October 24th-27th, 1963...77/79/78/82 max... October 20th-23rd, 1947...80/83/74/85 max...

Dec 59 to Feb 61 yielded five major snowstorms and hurricane Donna which was one of the greatest hurricanes to hit this area...1959 was the first white Christmas in NYC in 11 years...

if you lived through the March 1960 to Feb 1961 period you wouldn't say that...

years ago a very negative AO ment very cold at the time...now it yields a snowstorm... Feb 1969 and Feb 2020 had the lowest AO number after a major storm...Dec 2009 had a snowstorm in progress and 2011 would get one ten days later...even March 2018 had major storms after the AO minimum...

I think its 29.9 but rounded months get it to 30.0...long term ave is 27.5...

its insect warfare...

your bads are our goods...28" for NYC is average snowfall...

I did a quick check of years when August was the warmest month...I found 33 years...average snow for the 33 years is 28"...some great years snow wise were 1947, 1960 and 2009...some lousy years...2001, 1918 and 1877.... number of times... +60".....1 +50".....2 +40".....3 +30".....7 +20"...11 +10".....6 -10"....3

130ft difference in elevation and a shaded probe...

tree rings and sediments...