RitualOfTheTrout

Same, not much, but love snow falling while it's like 12 degrees out.

Yeah it is, 14 degrees now. The wind really cuts right through you, especially when our bodies are more accustomed to 30s and 40s. I happened to wake up right around 2:30am and catch the front coming through and the snow falling, could really hear the wind howling. Probably picked up a quarter inch or so but looked wintry at least for awhile. Now see who / if anyone gets lucky enough to maybe get under a lake band and pick up some extra snow. Looks like we will have a Huron connection for awhile, but other variables not favorable for better coverage. This cold snap is so quick though, midnight high today, and making it back close to 30 tomorrow it will largely be lost in the history books outside of overnight lows. Outside of that, the next 7 days looks pretty uneventful, maybe another cool / cold shot past that. Pattern looks pretty meh for any sustained winter. Still a solid 6 weeks to cash in on something.

Yeah, radar looks decent, hoping those returns make it into Westmoreland. 00z models seemed to improve slightly too with precip making it further in SW PA. Just a slushy dusting so far here, but if we can drop the temp another degree or two and get some better rates shouldn't have an issue accumulating.

Already flipped to snow here, so barring one of those situations were there isn't sufficient crystal growth shouldn't be much issue with freezing rain / drizzle. We don't usually get ZR when a cold front drops temps, at least anything prolonged. Much more likely warm air overriding antecedent cold. As for the inch... Well think it will be a challenge but possible.

If this is real we need some others to jump on board. GEFS had a few similar looks, Euro was in North Carolina so something will have to give lol.

Really can't argue it's getting warmer at least compared to recent recorded history, normal temperatures are increasing, sea ice decreasing, ocean temperatures setting yearly records etc. That being said I'm of the opinion this year would have been bad in any era, just maybe not this bad. If we start stringing years with favorable patterns together and strike out plus warmer than normal I'll start to wonder if we've passed some sort of tipping point. I expect next season will be better. I haven't given up on getting a storm, but don't expect we can salvage any snow on snow cold weather. This upcoming week looks colder but dry, and the cold is in and out then all indications SE ridge torch again til at least the end of Feb by which time that deep winter feel isn't likely with sun angle, longer days, and return of birds singing.

Looks like GFS and CMC are keying in on slightly different waves or just timing differences but yeah probably not a big storm but I'd love to get a solid 2-4 / 3-6 type event without temperatures issues. It's all about timing of the short waves / strength combined with that PV lobe placement, I'd expect significant changes one way or another over the next few days one way or the other. Given the way this winter has gone especially I'd rather be looking for it to come North than praying nothing changes over the next 5-6 days.

Picked up a fresh inch or so after I went to bed last night, must have been a pretty isolated band though because about 5 miles down 28 there wasn't much. Pretty wintry morning, actually had to brush the cars off etc.

It was nice to see snow falling all day for sure. Inability to drop below freezing despite 18 hours of NW flow on January 26th deflated my enthusiasm some and definitely took away from what would have otherwise been a bread and butter winter day. Getting some steady light snow now though and ground whitening up finally so take what you can get this year.

Looks like some intense bands / squalls possible tomorrow.

Typically 1-2 years, we are in year 3 and most long term models have it breaking down and maybe moving into an El Nino over the next several months.

I wouldn't consider what happens tomorrow even part of this event. I agree today it failed. Anecdotally once things start falling apart or conversely getting better the models are playing catch up so we tend to see "good" and "bad" busts. This one had a low ceiling all along, we know historically how these things go, and we knew yesterday it was degrading but there was still some uncertainty with placements of banding and warm air etc so we hung on to hope. To your other post about the SE ridge, its been a constant all winter. Its been rinse and repeat good patterns in the long range end up only being marginally better short interludes to our base state of winter. I pretty much expect the same once we get past the first week of Feb, doesn't mean we can't get lucky along the way. If your in the hobby of tracking storms is strictly end results based, its probably not going to be a healthy experience. If you enjoy following the trends, trying to learn something new, posting obs, and can take joy from the little things while sharing constructively in the loses and triumphs with others who poses this odd obsession with frozen water crystals then you'll realize the end result may be disappointing but the ride was still worth it.

Don't discount tonight and tomorrow, very well could produce more snow and feel like a real winter day vs what we got today. Cold NW flow off the lakes enhanced by a series of little waves moving through the upper trough could provide one of those nice snow globe type days were it snows on and off a good part of the day and we manage a couple inches. NAM showed a couple decent bands too, although that of course would be more of a radar / nowcast thing tomorrow. .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Perturbed flow with various weak shortwaves is expected in the wake of the exiting winter system that shifts towards the northeast CONUS. The combination of vort advection within broad upper troughing plus cold advection, varied lake enhancement, and orographic lift will promote mostly scattered snow showers Thursday into early Friday morning. Enough moisture is expected to remain to have periods of decent DGZ growth that could lead to an additional 1-2" of snow for most locations.

Here is the exact criteria for an advisory, they can be issued even if you don't necessarily meet the totals based on impact etc. Given the uncertainty and potential impact I don't think its crazy off the wall NWS had an advisory issued. A winter storm event (sleet, snow, freezing rain, snow and blowing snow, or a combination of events) is expected to meet or exceed local winter weather advisory criteria in the next 12 to 36 hours but stay below warning criteria. Criteria for snow is 3 inches or more in 12 hours or less covering at least 50 percent of the zone or encompassing most of the population. Use "mid-point" of snowfall range to trigger advisory (i.e 2 to 4 inches of snow = advisory). Criteria for ice is any ice accumulation less than 1/4 inch over at least 50 percent of the zone or encompassing most of the population. Winter Weather Advisory can also be issued for black ice. This is optional. These can also be issued for impact (e.g. morning / evening commute). (Source: https://www.weather.gov/pbz/winterterms#:~:text=Use "mid-point" of snowfall range to trigger advisory,be issued for black ice.)

Yeah, quickly changed over to sleet / mix when those returns moved overhead here in SE Allegheny. Not promising, but not surprising.

Lets let this move through before calling it a total busted forecast:

Yes, solid 35-45dbz returns about to enter Allegheny. This is the thump that will make or break it, if that is all snow and not indicative of a mix starting things should get interesting. Missing that initial thump delayed the onset so hopefully most people are at work before it hits the city.

Dry slot, what dry slot? Gotta love this region.. lol To be fair, we had a pretty good idea for at least 24 hours this was going to be the outcome, but you can never be 100% until nowcast time. Still think there is a shot at a brief but moderate to heavy burst when that main slug moves in if we can hold onto temps long enough. Surface temperatures are already 32-34 through the area for the most part, but I could see that cool briefly under heavier precip rates. Roads were all pre-treated and with marginal temperatures will probably be minimal impact. This has all the hallmarks of being one of those events were people bitch and moan about how meteorologists suck especially with the impending "winter storm" making headlines on the evening news last night. I can hear it now, wheres the snow, I stayed home / worked from home / my kids school was delayed for this?

0z 3k NAM looks lousy too, quick inch or two followed by heavy rain

Radiate away! I was outside and skies are crystal clear, ground freezing back up. Should help maximize whatever snow we do get.

I think it's just setting realistic expectations vs being outright negative doom and gloomer at least to this point. Data supports it, especially city and south. That being said I'll be watching radar hoping to see the models bust and get a heavy period of snow, but I'm expecting by the time I get home from work whatever does fall will be gone.

The earlier runs that had us closer to that WAA band also had the boundary between M/D line / I70, it's now up by I80 / PA NY border on the NAM. I'll be a little disappointed if there's not a burst of heavy snow to watch but if that misses it will be less irritating in some ways to not see it all melt / wash away 2 hours later anyways.

Not liking the trends here, everything seems to be leaning towards the best thump being just north of Allegheny County. Still a lot of uncertainty though. NW of the city (sometimes way NW) is going to be favored in this pattern, but you'd think we could get something being so close to the boundary. 00z GFS provides some hope for that, but even that changes so drastically it's hard to put much faith.

Everything riding on where that frontogenetic band sets up. Seems like it's been slowly ticking North so wouldn't shock me if NAM is right about placement but little over zealous with amounts. Still time, placement of that feature is a short range thing, if we keep it close still a chance for a good bust during nowcast time.

Crazy we can't seem to beat down that ridging in the east even a little bit. Would make a world of difference for our chances that's for sure. I agree though, pretty big changes run to run so nothing set in stone.