RitualOfTheTrout

Yeah, last year did, but to some degree those changes were in contrast to the background Enso state, this year at least the placement of features generally agrees with what you’d expect. Not saying great times ahead is a guarantee but outside of one GFS Op run everything still looks on track. If it sticks and other ENS start looking similar maybe we have Lucy pulling the football but until then I wouldn’t put much stock in it.

The better pattern look is holding in time, next chance for snow sometime after the 28th. I won't say it's a lock yet, but it would be a pretty big fail at this juncture if it falls apart. Hopefully it has some staying power, it would be nice to get locked into a favorable pattern for the first 2-3 weeks of January. My initial take the ridge axis is maybe a bit to far east which would favor weaker storms to be to far east for us and bomb off the coast, but that could be offset if strong short wave deepens / phases early on. Way to early to hone in on any of that though, but if I had to nitpick...

Same, about .5. Looks like most of the steadier bands missed me overnight. Still got enough to head out last evening and check out some Christmas lights with the family in the snow, so all in all it was a win. I did think we would do a bit better based on the setup. Hopefully by this time next week a better looking pattern is in the short to medium range with maybe something to track. That would be a great Christmas present!

About a quarter inch here so far, next batch of steadier snow about to move in. HRRR showing a band later tonight with a Huron connection, could give somebody a surprise if that comes to fruition.

If sun angle is a concern on December 19th.... I guess to add, I think retention (again relative, do you mean 1 day, 1 week?) is reasonable mid Dec - end of Jan assuming you have a pattern that supports cold and a get a couple inches on the ground, otherwise no not reasonable. This situation, not reasonable, we are basically on an island of winter today and tomorrow in a sea of blah. Take what you can get, and try to have some fun in the misery right?

To me any place other than my backyard is stupid, so if that means yours instead of mine then I'll be by with an industrial blow torch to melt the snow you stole from me. I'm joking by the way.... I think.

This is what I was getting at when I said the pattern didn't look great but it wasn't a complete shutout look. Should have 2 days of cold and snow in the air, and hopefully score an inch or so. As for being negative, I guess it's relative to ones expectations. I'll be happy just to see snow falling, hopefully get enough to cover the ground and take the kids around to look at lights with a wintry backdrop. If that's only a half inch so be it.

Seeing snow now as well. Can't hurt if its a bit sooner than expected. Not expecting much until later this afternoon though.

Yeah, this. Its all a nowcast situation, see if squalls setup and if so if your yard gets hit.

In my opinion the setup looks good for how we maximize a cold window in an otherwise unfavorable pattern. A shortwave dropping in behind the main storm after we already have a favorable NW flow off warm lakes is typically a way we can score a small event. If we maximize the setup potential squalls and briefly heavy snow not out of the question. Its a nowcast thing, but beats days of 40s and 50s right?

Still looks pretty changeable on the various ENS means, not saying it means snow but wall to wall torch no guarantee either heading towards next weekend. On an unrelated note, saw a stat 2023 is vying for second least snowy year on record at 12 inches.

We've always nickle and dime'ed our way to the averages-ish, with a bigger storm thrown in there every couple years (look at the frequency of 5+ 8+ 12+ storms in the records) so I agree not having those 1-3 / 2-4 clippers and NW flow LES setups has really made winters lately seems worse than they are from a bigger storm perspective. Beginning of December the mid to late month period looked much better than at least what it appears reality will bare. Still not a total shutout look, but also not out of the question we are way below average by Jan. If the good looks keep getting pushed back we will quickly find ourselves in a hope for one big storm winter again. Still not out of the question we have a second half turn around, but the clock is ticking.

At least there are plenty of darts being thrown, gotta think if that continues one will work out.

Both GFS and Euro show a secondary wave popping along the front, certainly worth keeping an eye on. As with anything timing is everything, but if the low deepens at our latitude after the front passes it could be fun. Pretty sure we had a storm do that a few years back on Christmas Eve.

So can I count that hail I got as a trace for frozen or...

Most of the long range forecasting (heck even short range) is above my pay grade, but I certainly don't hate the look currently advertised heading into mid December. At least right now, its not a shutout pattern, several chances of at least some snow on various ENS runs. Past that, nino climo would tend to favor increasing chances for winter weather heading into January and February. I'm at least cautiously optimistic for the winter as a whole at least hitting the average bar, with above average likelihood of some more frequent big storm tracking, whether we cash in of course tbd.

Getting under a pretty robust band right now, nice to see snow flying.

Starting to look like maybe a pretty solid cold shot around Thanksgiving. Put xmas lights up today in the beautiful weather. Fingers crossed that doesn't jinx the cold coming.

I like the house cool at night, but its been a bit of a challenge even with a box fan in the window to keep it 70-68 over night. I also like to see how long I can run without needing AC or Heat, got a decent streak going, but its looking like odds favor warmth next week.

Yeah, Im enjoying this. No heat or air needed as an added bonus. Not mad about nissing that tropical over the weekend either, but Id be crying in December at that cutoff.

Wonder what is showing up on PBZ radar? Pretty sure it's not raining. Some sort of malfunction?

At least the initial batch looks to stay south. Cloud cover from that convection probably also helps us out a bit, but not 100% sure we miss everything based on some short term models showing at least a few sporadic cells before the front comes through.

Yeah, these guys need to take this talk to a place thats appropriate for weather talk.

Yeah, The line is weakening pretty quickly now, that probably saved us from the worst winds, but rain and lightening show did not disappoint.

Pretty rare to be in enhanced risk area. Wouldn't mind seeing some boomers, but I hope we escape any major damage if the threat materializes.