RitualOfTheTrout

I agree, could still go down the toilet but most solutions get us some snow. Not being an all or nothing deal takes some of the edge off so tracking is fun.

I don't have a real solid feeling one way or the other on this right now. The ridge axis is further east out west and the confluence from the low trapped under the block is stronger and we don't see a clean phase on the 12z runs today so that makes North and East closer to the coast areas favored. Whether we see enough changes in any of those to get a bigger impact storm here or that the trend continues the other way is anyone's guess.

Who knows, GFS used to be somewhat better in some instances with northern stream stuff because that bias played into the fast flow that we usually see. To be honest though the models go through upgrades much more frequently and I haven't kept tabs on what the tendencies are. I thought the Euro went through an upgrade somewhat recently that was going to help its tendency to hold energy back for example so I have no idea whether to consider that when looking at any given output anymore. I'd be curious to hear from a MET or someone with more knowledge what the prevailing opinion is these days.

00z Euro... if you could hear graphics on the internet it might sound like... JAWS THEME Really just a matter of timing the phase if the rest of this was accurate. Ridge axis out west is in pretty good spot. Just doesn't quite get consolidated / phased in time and we just miss. Wouldn't take much change in timing of the shortwaves to get this going sooner. Even with that said its a decent storm on the Euro for us, but northern PA / Upstate NY gets absolutely blasted on this run. My gut says Euro is probably over doing things and still to far out to assume anything is set but as rarely as we get hit with a storm even having some maps to parse for something big isn't that common, imho next to watching the snow fall this is the next most fun part.

Should be doable even if it's just an inch or so from the arctic front. I'm pretty liberal with my definition of a white Christmas, half inch of snow the day before and cold air will do if that's all we can manage. Beats 40s and brown mud right?

With that low being all the way in Wisconsin WAA won't be as strong however we still lack an in place cold airmass and high to the north to replenish low level cold to offset latent heat release. Those ice maps just look at any precip that falls with surface temperatures at 32 or lower and say its ice accretion. You won't see much accretion at 31.9 with light / moderate rain. I agree, unless we really see a trend towards colder air most of what we see in Allegheny county will be rain. Still could be a dicey period as it only takes a slight glaze to cause a big problem on the roads, but a big ice storm like the NAM shows isn't happening for SWPA lowlands.

I guess I'm still focused on how the pattern develops after this storm. Always a chance but the storm has a lot going against it for us. Looks like essentially a late developing miller b with no real antecedent cold to start off.

I think we are in a fool me once shame on you full me twice shame on me mode and want to see how things evolve before getting to invested. Global ENS all seem to be agreeing we get a -EPO to start dumping cold into the West / Central US with a -NAO and somewhat less hostile PNA. It will take a cutter or two to drag some of this east but there will be cold close enough to tap. Best part is the changes are evident under the day 7-8 period while models still have reasonable skill. I could see some slop storms with systems trying to cut, hitting the block and redeveloping with this setup. Having that trough around Hawaii usually teleconnects to some ridging in the west and a trough in the east. How long it lasts / what it morphs into is way beyond my skill but if this comes to fruition we should see storms with at least some frozen popping up soon.

Yeah, I think we are seeing some solid evidence of Jwilson's statement earlier saying some sort of +PNA is the most important metric being correct, at least for early season. You can have the biggest -NAO but if there is zonal flow off the pacific you just block in mediocre airmass. Some of those earlier looks with the PV lobe blocked under the -NAO and the solid +PNA had me worried about suppression and had that verified verbatim we probably would have saw a few storms to far South, but the look has degraded so much aside for some -NAO we are hardly looking at the same pattern now. Definitely need some pacific help but seems we keep seeing that get pushed out. Further we get into the season the more our odds increase for some fluke event. Even if we can manage to get some -EPO to dump cold out west we can get a transient cold shot behind a storm and maybe time something up.

Who knows, still far enough out it may not end up like all these “epic” looks the models have been spitting out.

That's my "concern" as well, to much of a good thing if its too strong and all the storms get pushed well underneath us and off the coast. I think at a minimum though if that pattern materializes we will feel the cold, and likely see some little lake enhanced things as you say. Volatile is key, lots of pendulum swings as patterns break down / reload. Should be fun to see how it all evolves.

That is what I see being a concern with the advertised upcoming pattern. Still lots of other variables that will dictate things but seems more likely than now the trough axis will be to far east which is why coastal folks are jumping for joy. Miller Bs almost always end as slop storms when the warm air arrives sooner than anticipated or we get caught in a dryslot unless we get the perfect pass before it jumps. They can be fun though if we get a thump from the primary and lucky enough to get some love from the secondary throwing back moisture.

Give it a few days, we are still about a week out at least for the block / pattern change to start getting established. All we have now is a general idea of how things will look at H5. Should be interesting to see how the first storm interacts with the block.

I'm far from qualified to answer and to RD9108s point if coastal folks are really happy we probably see the storm track to far out to sea for any real shot. That being said, in my opinion in general if the pattern is favorable for the east coast we have a shot. If there is a monster -NAO we actually probably want a more nuetralish / slightly negative PNA as we want some SE ridging to push against the NAO to force the storm path inland. To many variables in my mind to say one specific metric is better than another for any discrete threat, things like timing of a phasing / other shortwave interactions can alter the track in ways that would make a less than optimum setup work for us or kill us.

The upcoming 10-12 days has been fairly well advertised as meh for any winter weather of interest in terms of discrete storm threat tracking, something little could always pop up short term but overall it looks pretty hostile. Whether the upcoming "pattern change" materializes is the real question. (Yay! Pattern tracking lol) Lots of posts seem to be proclaiming the modeled -Nao as a panacea for everything else will likely end in disappointment. I'm paying more attention to the PNA, if it's very negative the calls for big cold will fail as cold air source gets cut off and SE ridge pushes. Then again you rarely score a big storm with a huge purple temp anomaly overhead.

Just hit here, pretty awesome just seeing this cloud of wind whipped snow approaching in the distance.

Looks worth monitoring radar tomorrow morning for sure. NWS makes mention of some potential for heavier snow or even a squall. Friday will continue to be cold, Hi-Res models portray snow shower potential increasing with the passing shortwave passage from late morning through late afternoon. With reinforced cold air from the west, CAPE could increase between 20-35 J/kg and convective snow bands could hold together. Nevertheless, models indicate a very well defined vortmax associated with he shortwave moving in tomorrow morning just after 12Z with strong winds aloft. The potential certainly exists with the amount of instability present for an isolated heavier band or even a snow squall. Thus have upped snowfall amounts a tad and included all of the Ohio counties in the HWO. As well, the better agreement with the hi res models showing better instability coupled with mechanical assistance from the terrain in the southeast, the totals in the southeast were raised to 1 to 3 inches. A Special Weather Statement may be needed or even a Winter Weather Advisory.

Models indicating the possibility of something brewing for black Friday. Looks like a miller B type setup with low odds but if you are in the mood to track could be first threat to keep an eye on.

Probably a bit of wet bulbing going on here, dew points were generally 29-30 degrees when the heavier rates moved in. Nice .25 - .5 inch of wet snow, even started accumulating on shaded pavement briefly. Enough my son had to go outside and play in. First snowball fight of the season under my belt now.

Nice burst of fatties coming down right now. Radar looks like a heavier burst is possible, not sure if that is some sort of mix though.

Looks like the global models have shifted back east a bit. Short range still seems to have the heaviest access into eastern OH but either way 1.5 - 2.5 inches looks like a good bet. Euro for reference:

Yeah, I'm enjoying the great fall weather, but totally ready to shift gears once mother nature decides to flip the switch. Looks like maybe a good soaking for the area with tropical remnants. Why can't we get a storm like this as all snow in winter?

This has been one of the most enjoyable Fall seasons I can remember, pleasantly warm during the days with sunshine, fairly dry, and cool to cold evenings and overnights to keep it feeling like Fall. I've gotten several little outdoor projects completed I thought would be a next Spring tasks, spent lots of time outdoors, and saved a decent chunk of change on heating with minimal furnace usage. Our neighborhood Trick-or-Treat was Saturday evening, and it was probably the best since I've had kids (10+ years). Pretty Hollywood-esque scene with just past peak color contrasted on clear blue evening sky that fades to a cool crisp night. No concerns with umbrellas or trying to fit costumes over three layers to keep warm. My personal preference, but if you are going to have above average temperatures mid October - Thanksgiving-ish time frame gives the most bang for the buck. Unseasonable cold this time of year is largely useless for snow and it gives the hope the pattern needs to flip at some point. If things still look warm in another 2-3 weeks I'll start to get worried about potential wasted winter opportunities but until then I'll take this warmer weather.

Yeah, 12z Euro looks like some rain of consequence, especially SE of the city. GFS not so much.

Wonder if we manage and decent storms this evening, seems to have already gotten overcast which will probably limit instability. I'm looking forward to the cool weather for sure. Will probably close the pool for the season. Meanwhile way out in fantasy land GFS has remnants from whatever develops in the gulf taking aim at us with another shot of cold air on the backside.