RitualOfTheTrout

Cold is one factor, but you also need good lift / omega in the DGZ when you are looking at the sounding to get an idea on ratios. You can assume we "should" do better than 10:1, like 12:1-14:1 but it's an average through the storm really. Don't get me wrong, looking at those snow maps is fun, I just think sometimes we see this big number on the Kuchera output and it's a setup for disappointment when NWS starts putting out official numbers etc. If it's ever going to be close though, being far from any potential warm layers is probably it's best bet. One other note, as we watch that energy crash onto the west coast, if it comes in at a higher latitude and or doesn't drift SE towards baha that gives it a better starting point. Just a thought, but if that could happen, and we get a faster ejection and phase, that could make a big difference for us. I'd really like to see all Allegheny in at least the .5 qpf range to really start thinking we might make 6+. EPS mean made a nice jump NW and the latest NBM looks a bit further NW as well with precip distribution.

Geez, it must really be getting close to 15:1 - 20:1 ratios here. Not sure I'd buy that per se, but at least we aren't sitting partly cloudy. Euro did step back like the others; we will have to watch that going forward. We want as much of a complete phase as possible. I think it's really going to take until 12z Thursday to have a lot of confidence how that plays out.

That's my guess, although we have seen a small step back on the phasing with 12z models besides the ICON but nothing like the GFS and we still get some decent snow. It could just be noise level stuff this far out too with the GFS just being an extreme outlier wrt handling that interaction.

Don't like seeing the GFS revert to keeping the shortwave cutoff and not phasing. It just means that option is still in the realm of possibilities. If the GFS were the only one giving us snow, I wouldn't feel too good about our chances either. No matter what the Euro shows we still have time for these important pieces to change towards or away from our favor. I'd love to get 6-8 inches of pure powder with temps in 10s followed by a massive arctic blast, and so far, I think that is within a reasonable realm of possibilities.

I agree, I think we are approaching the ceiling for how far north it can come, being in the bullseye would take significant changes. The changes in the handling of the phasing with the southern stream shortwave last night were what we wanted to see though, and as long as that continues, and we see some relaxation in the confluence at least we won't be totally shut out.

No need to nickel and dime... </Optimism> Once the weekend storm slows down a little more allowing a clean phase with that northern stream piece dropping into the dakotas, the storm will move back north hammering us with 16 inches. </Optimism>

One that verbatim spits out a model run without human input to generate a 7 day forecast is my guess. If I had a dollar for everytime I give my wife or daughter advice on weather conditions and I hear but my phone says....

Snow Squall warnings all over. Ive been stuck in-between two with the sun peaking out, hope the pivot or fill in.

Nice morning, light snow and cold. Could be some heavier snow showers later today per NWS. Not sure what to make of the weekend storm. I think I'd rather flirt with too far NW than a miss to the south especially given most of our snow this season has been the lighter qpf variety. The AI models generally look good, but if we are looking at some anomalously setup they have not been trained on that could explain why they are further north right now. Focus for me is on the shortwave and hope it ejects in one piece, then timing of the PV and the cold.

That's a good point, if the timing changes its anyone's game. I can't think of any storm that cold with meaningful qpf that's for sure.

If the models have that cold press right we are going to want this thing to go ape and amp up to max potential I think.

I'm with you, heck I would take a mix if it meant a solid thump of snow then the whole kitchen sink of precip types.

That run was insane. We got the WAA snows, then as the main storm approached the PV put down the hammer and kept it moving east while creating insane convergence right over us. I'd be happy with a quarter of that run. Honestly that much snow would be scary, probably would lead to loss of life and property, but Id be lieing if I said a small part of me still doesn't have some morbid curiosity in seeing it happen. I guess that's the struggle hurricane enthusiasts deal with.

I got about a half inch, maybe a little more. Bare ground is covered. Another light snow tonight into tomorrow morning before the core of the really cold sets in looks to be on tap.

If a storm cuts to far NW, for SW PA its fairly easy to scour out cold air absent a well placed high to funnel cold dry air down and even then we usually end up with sleet or freezing rain. Areas in central PA and east of the Appalachian mountains can dam up cold air thanks the mountains. In a good CAD setup its not uncommon for us to rain, while well South into VA still has frozen.

Yeah, can't win em all. We've done well so far this winter so I can't complain. Hopefully one of these upcoming shortwaves rotating through dumps a quick fresh coating

Thus far it looks pretty underwhelming and better organized north of us. Guess we will have to wait and see what happens. Sucks too because most of the snow in my yard is gone. Wouldn't mind the cold coming in if I at least have an inch of snow on the ground.

NWS still seems bullish on the chance of heavier convective snow showers. Hopefully they are right. SNOW SQUALLS/SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON... Scattered snow showers are beginning to move through eastern Ohio late this morning. Some snow squalls are possible heading into this afternoon along and north of I-70. The most intense snow squalls are expected to be between 1pm and 6pm. Some challenging travel conditions will be possible with a sudden drop in visibility and a quick coating of snow within snow showers. If traveling remain alert for changing road conditions. $$

I ended up with about an inch, maybe it was closer to 1.5 before the compacting / melting.

There it is!

Yes! I think that was North Pgh with the detour sign.

I don't mind all the little clippers, but I'd love to get some juiced up southern wave attack a cold dome of arctic air.

Yeah, its a haul, 28 miles each way 40-60 minutes each way. Fortunately I only have to do it 3 times a week between 4 x 10s and working from home.

Dang, that's crazy! You're making out good! Can't beat heavy snow with temps in the teens! It's been pretty quiet here at work in the West Mifflin area for the most part. There is definitely a nice band in western central Allegheny County right now.

It's fairly intuitive but go to my attachments in the dropdown under your username in the top right, then you can sort by size, and it shows you the thread it is posted in, so you can decide if it's like 2 years ago if it's worth keeping it.