RitualOfTheTrout

Thursday does look a little more robust right now. Could be another 1-2 for sure. Closing in on a fresh inch right now.

Light snow and temperature at 16, deep winter! Maybe we can squeeze a couple inches out of these next 2 light events. Saturday looks mixy, maybe it can trend better. Next week still looks interesting too.

I think after 2 solid weeks of relatively deep cold and NW flow I'll be ready to roll the dice on something with higher upside. Once the lakes start to ice over this current pattern will lose most of any potential upside options outside of a vigorous clipper or miller B type redevelopment. Now that the we look to be heading more towards a +NAO and -EPO I'd expect some cold outbreaks but they should be more progressive. A more moisture laden or overrunning event event even if we mix or rain for a portion wouldn't be the worst, of course an all snow event would be fine too. The type of setup being advertised is more likely to end up further NW outside of some perfectly timed northern stream vort squashing everything so seeing things a little more SE right now isn't the worst. Never any guarantees so hopefully the interesting looks for next week hold. Crazy how balmy 31 degrees felt this morning.

Dang, to bad the gfs ends at 384, it was in the middle of an epic storm, we are getting a major ice storm after 8-12 of snow with more fun on the way. (For entertainment purposes only)

Measured between half an inch to 3/4. Disappointing from a totals perspective but refreshed the wintry scenery at least.

Finally getting some light snow.

Hrrr has the hole modeled pretty well, also shows it filling in later but I think the damage is done given we've missed a couple hours of snow already.

Hole is pretty much right over my house.

Yeah, I was a little worried several short range models showed that better banding NW of the city. Some areas already with 2-4 on the ground that weren't even in an advisory until they just recently upgraded. Still need to see how it plays out but nothing but a few flurries here so far. Probably will be lucky to get much more than an inch.

Everything mostly in agreement for a general 1-3. Ill take it.

Yeah it's back, pretty steady heavier light snow if that makes any sense lol. Those big puffy dendrites though so it adds up. Probably 1-2 since midnight but hard to tell with the blowing. Looks like 2 or 3 clippers next week. I always preferred the "Saskatchewan Screamer" If I was ever musically inclined I would have started a punk band with that name. lol

That northern stream piece is what's going to give us whatever we get. Honestly, the big phased look was probably going to fringe us, maybe we end up worse off with that look so this might end up better for "more snow" anyways.

Yeah, I feel like when I was a kid we almost always had a stretch like this in winter. I remember getting smaller-ish storms, and sled riding then followed up like every other day getting another 1-3 or 2-4 with snow on the ground adding fresh powder to our sled runs lol I'm sure my memory makes it seem more frequent than it probably was but this is the type of stretch I've been missing. Still wouldn't be mad if we scored a bigger storm somewhere along the way.

Getting moderate snow here now, wind is really blowing too! These types of days are our bread and butter lol

Anyone getting any decent snow out of that band in central Allegheny right now? Looks to be slowly drifting east, so hope to catch a little bit of it. This NW flow setup *could* over the next couple days end up being better for some than the storm. (Not saying much when your bar is 1 inch but hey!) Still gotta love snow on snow with temps in the 20s.

Other than maybe nowcasting some pieces of vorticity in the NW flow interacting with some lake moisture this week, there really isn't anything to watch until whatever happens this weekend. I'm almost wondering if the weekend thing would be better off for our chances if that energy in the SW gets stuck there and picked up by the next NS wave after it. Not worth parsing anything after the weekend other than it looks like the window for winter weather will remain open for awhile.

Neat to see the GFS phasing the energy, really need that to happen more quickly though so the trough goes more neutral / negative to pull it NW. As it is its pretty positively tilted at hr 120. The whole thing is a long shot to begin with, even more so with GFS being the only one showing it to this degree (and we still need a cleaner faster phase).

Same here, really got bright out there and see the sun breaking out. Looks like the "main" event is about to wrap up around here. Models keep the back-end stuff associated with the upper low passage South of us, but hey given they missed the banding by about 100 miles to far north maybe we get lucky!

It does look like the radar is filling back in to the South as the Northern extent is collapsing. Eyeballing somewhere between 1-2 inches here. Not worth getting dressed to go out and measure. At least we don't have to worry about mixing right?

Very light snow here, maybe a dusting so far. Radar looks sorta broken up, maybe it will fill in.

GFS a tick north, or at least a little more expansive on the northern fringe too.

This looks to end up being one of those frustrating storms watching radar returns fade as they move north. Im expecting 1-2 max for my yard. Im sure next time we need south trend it will end up north over Erie lol

Good point, its currently 19 degrees with light snow falling after scoring 3-4 yesterday and a solid wintry period forecast for at least the next 2 weeks and at least some snow tomorrow night. A lot of recent winters I think we would kill to have that.

Looking at 12z to see if we get any meaningful expansions north, this is typically when the slow bleed north starts to screw us. This time WAA being stronger than forecast may help is unless this is the one time its not. Im really only looking to not be on the fringe and have a reasonable shot at 3-5.

My guess is maybe the Euro ticks north, but feels like maybe going to meet in the middle with GFS. Not cooked yet, but starting to think the possibility of a warning event north of i70 is fading.