RitualOfTheTrout

I'm curious to see how he does in the playoff under the pressure of Edmonton. I don't wish him ill, but his lack of consistency and focus is a killer.

Your not wrong to bring it up. Its been showing on some models, even that sref run shows at least a lower ratio area.

You said it, GFS looks good!

Please.. Only slant stick measurements we want photos of is the snow in your yard.

How many times has the NAM at range worked out when we needed what it showed? The 3K is good for short range, but there is a reason this thing is getting retired. Not that it't can't be onto something, but I wouldn't let it ruin your day. Let the GFS and Euro do that.

Yeah, I mean we have a few paths, and they all look like they lead to a big snowfall for once. If something like that NAM happens, we probably get crushed with heavier snow and still push double digits, if more like the GFS, then we get a longer more prolonged event that should get us to at least 12+

Damn work... Had me occupied all day. How dare they expect a full day's work for wages paid when a snowstorm is eminent! I like were we sit still, love that NWS graphic that has us circled for possibility to see 13-18 inches if all goes right. I would expect the AIs to maybe be a bit more onto the warm nose intrusion, they are trained on past storms, and the majority would argue a track like this probably brings the mix but I think even if we flirt with warm nose, nobody sees plain rain, we have a legit arctic airmass and near perfect wall of high pressure to keep funneling that into the storm.

I made a similar point a few days ago, although you dove much more into the technical side. This is why I would rather see total qpf for an event when determining if it's a "better" run vs Kuchera or even 10:1 if you are talking surface maps. That being said, looking at maps with all these high totals for our backyards is fun as long as you keep yourself grounded and as you say, don't end up disapointed. I never got some of the angst people had when someone posted a "clown map" Afterall, where else outside of a weather forum would something like that be understood or appreciated?

Great overnight runs that look to be continuing into 6z. I passed out and missed all the fun, the prior two nights staying up late and getting up for work took their toll lol. Looks like I missed a good Pens game too.

Good problem to have, so many snow chances you can't follow them all!

Probably millions of weenies hitting refresh killing the servers. 12z will be rolling shortly, let's hope we continue to see a strong interaction between the northern and southern stream like last night.

I wouldn't get worried about this yet. There is still considerable spread in the ensembles, and the degree of phasing is still up in the air. While the 00z models looked great for the most part (continued into 6z) to me confidence won't really start to increase until Thursday 12z runs. It's about just as likely we see more changes today at 12z as we did last night, how it affects our outcome is tbd.

Hey, no worries. Sorry for your loss. Maybe if we do reel this one in its a sign from them they are ok and happy to see each other again, and a subtle nod to you to enjoy the snow and they will see you soon, but not too soon.

Oh yeah, GFS North again, CMC even more so, pushing sleet close to the mason dixon line.

Cold is one factor, but you also need good lift / omega in the DGZ when you are looking at the sounding to get an idea on ratios. You can assume we "should" do better than 10:1, like 12:1-14:1 but it's an average through the storm really. Don't get me wrong, looking at those snow maps is fun, I just think sometimes we see this big number on the Kuchera output and it's a setup for disappointment when NWS starts putting out official numbers etc. If it's ever going to be close though, being far from any potential warm layers is probably it's best bet. One other note, as we watch that energy crash onto the west coast, if it comes in at a higher latitude and or doesn't drift SE towards baha that gives it a better starting point. Just a thought, but if that could happen, and we get a faster ejection and phase, that could make a big difference for us. I'd really like to see all Allegheny in at least the .5 qpf range to really start thinking we might make 6+. EPS mean made a nice jump NW and the latest NBM looks a bit further NW as well with precip distribution.

Geez, it must really be getting close to 15:1 - 20:1 ratios here. Not sure I'd buy that per se, but at least we aren't sitting partly cloudy. Euro did step back like the others; we will have to watch that going forward. We want as much of a complete phase as possible. I think it's really going to take until 12z Thursday to have a lot of confidence how that plays out.

That's my guess, although we have seen a small step back on the phasing with 12z models besides the ICON but nothing like the GFS and we still get some decent snow. It could just be noise level stuff this far out too with the GFS just being an extreme outlier wrt handling that interaction.

Don't like seeing the GFS revert to keeping the shortwave cutoff and not phasing. It just means that option is still in the realm of possibilities. If the GFS were the only one giving us snow, I wouldn't feel too good about our chances either. No matter what the Euro shows we still have time for these important pieces to change towards or away from our favor. I'd love to get 6-8 inches of pure powder with temps in 10s followed by a massive arctic blast, and so far, I think that is within a reasonable realm of possibilities.

I agree, I think we are approaching the ceiling for how far north it can come, being in the bullseye would take significant changes. The changes in the handling of the phasing with the southern stream shortwave last night were what we wanted to see though, and as long as that continues, and we see some relaxation in the confluence at least we won't be totally shut out.

No need to nickel and dime... </Optimism> Once the weekend storm slows down a little more allowing a clean phase with that northern stream piece dropping into the dakotas, the storm will move back north hammering us with 16 inches. </Optimism>

One that verbatim spits out a model run without human input to generate a 7 day forecast is my guess. If I had a dollar for everytime I give my wife or daughter advice on weather conditions and I hear but my phone says....

Snow Squall warnings all over. Ive been stuck in-between two with the sun peaking out, hope the pivot or fill in.

Nice morning, light snow and cold. Could be some heavier snow showers later today per NWS. Not sure what to make of the weekend storm. I think I'd rather flirt with too far NW than a miss to the south especially given most of our snow this season has been the lighter qpf variety. The AI models generally look good, but if we are looking at some anomalously setup they have not been trained on that could explain why they are further north right now. Focus for me is on the shortwave and hope it ejects in one piece, then timing of the PV and the cold.

That's a good point, if the timing changes its anyone's game. I can't think of any storm that cold with meaningful qpf that's for sure.

If the models have that cold press right we are going to want this thing to go ape and amp up to max potential I think.