RitualOfTheTrout

Couple of weakish convective showers rolled through, but also tapped into that wind potential. If anywhere manages to get a stronger storm things could get real with the wind.

Should be interesting to watch this snow squall potential develop today. Time of year should help boost instability by the time it gets to our area.

Beautiful wintry evening for sure. Steady light snow now for past hour with little brief heavier bursts. Starting to accumulate on the roads now. Have to admit I was surprised snow lasted on the ground all day despite sun angle.

Euro is a perfect track / scenario for us, we've hardly had any fantasy hits this year so fun to see I guess. That would qualify as my paste bomb. Euro has been pretty flaky this season and its probably over amplifying it. Upstate NY has been doing pretty good, at least lately. Makes me wonder if 30 years ago that would have been our area getting slammed, or not I still think this season would probably have been lousy in any era.

Likely to tack on a little more today too with the snow bands. Looks and feels pretty wintry out there, not quite the same feel as when it happens in mid winter, but take what you can get especially after Feb. Quickly looking through the models potential is there for more snow. I count at least 1-2 more storms that might affect somewhere in the east. Climo will be rapidly fading soon though so anything lighter would have to be at night or get a paste bomb during the day.

It has been pretty horrid. March is shaping up to be essentially what I really didn't want to happen. If only we could have swapped Feb and March patterns probably would have had a decent Feb, then we could jump right into a nice warm spring. Instead March is colder than Feb, but not quite cold enough for meaningful snow, just more dreary / damp / cool weather. I mentally accepted this wasn't going to be a good year half way through January and checked out, did what I could outdoors with relatively nicer weather, especially those 60s and 70s in Feb. Only checked models every couple days except for those couple teases we had. If I were younger probably would have struggled more. I doubt this will be our winters going forward, but expect these types of seasons may become more common. Winter 2022-2023 will probably be best summarized / dealt with as the quote frequently repeated from Gandalf in Lord of the Rings: I wish it need not have happened in my time," said Frodo. "So do I," said Gandalf, "and so do all who live to see such times. But that is not for them to decide. All we have to decide is what to do with the time that is given us.”

Good info, I never really put much thought into the accuracy of past records, but this really makes you take some of those with a grain of salt. Thermometer outside of a window or roof mounted, varying degrees of elevation, location changes, and probably less than standard snow measuring techniques all paint the picture that snow totals where probably a bit higher in some cases, and temperatures were probably colder but basing current observations on those somewhat flawed recordings smooths over some the overall changes towards warmer for our region.

I'm not buying it either, get it under day 7 and my interests will perk up. Part of me hates to see that below avg temp map for Match, but if we can get a storm of consequence I'll be all in. March can spawn some real beasts as we know.

We've had so many wind advisories this winter. Should have traded my snow shovel in for a fancy kite.

There's still 2-3 weeks left, wouldn't shock me if we managed to beat that 2.2. Heck, even April would have an outside chance with such a low bar. If we can't get a 6+ event at this point I'm good with futility lol

Glad I never got to involved in this one, it looked good for a couple days but the GFS being on its own NW was a red flag mainly due to the fact it was showing the storm follow what we've seen all season. Now I hope it cuts as far NW as possible, give us a dry slot and maybe another nice day in the 60s.

Figures, there were a few times this season the GFS was an outlier for a good setup for us and it caved to the others.

At least it's falling apart before much investment. Still worth keeping an eye on for now. I figured NW was a more likely fail given the seasonal track, not sold it's a done deal yet.

Yeah some decent hits on the ENS. 18z GFS a bit better looking than 12z.

Still has a storm, no way you should expect that exact same evolution 4 times a day 7 days out. Take home is our area is still between the goal posts of operational / ensemble suites for some type of winter weather. I get patience is low given we just went a month with legit nothing. A large area of real estate in the east is hoping this is the storm for them but inevitably there's going to be disappointment somewhere. For now just enjoy the track knowing we are still in the game.

00z says hold my beer...

Wow.. meanwhile Canadian has it snowing in NC lol. That would probably be some of the heaviest snow rates I can recall on a model. Now off to bed, really has to be downhill from this!

Fun to see, but still a ton of spread. GEFS have a lot of members with a pretty wound up cutter. But hey, 26 inches gets us to almost normal snowfall for the season so I say bring it!

March snow.. especially after a season like this one.. Go big or go home! Probably the best run all season (not saying much) but after a month of only checking models once every other day I've been checking in daily on this one, might have to up that frequency if we actually have a shot at something here.

Pretty good burst of snow under some of these bands. Nice interlude of winter during our perpetual spring weather.

It can't be 100% attributed to any one storm or season. Climate change will make bad patterns even worse, ie to your data points maybe 100 years ago a bad winter pattern would yield 5 inches of snow on the season and 2 70 degree days, but now its 2 inches of snow and 6 70 degree days. This pattern would suck in any era relative to normal. Does climate change play a role in making these "bad" patterns more frequent or make the "good" ones less effective? Does it make past analogues with a marginal setup where we just squeaked by at 32 and had heavy snow now more likely to be an all out fail? Does it further reduce other forces that might mitigate a bad situation to make it workable for snow? Probably, but its going to take decades to see that trend in the data. It's even likely that we see some sort of "sweet spot" were warmer more moisture laden atmosphere meets up with still cold enough planet to increase our snow averages. Maybe we are in that now, or getting to the tail end when its more likely going to be to warm, no way to know yet. Admittedly I'm basing that on the idea that the change will be slow, at least relative to the scale of a human lifetime. Maybe that's wrong and once we get past a certain point exponentiation deterioration will rapidly put an end to winter weather in our area. Point is I'd need to see several years to say this season is anything close to a "new normal".

I generally agree, Nina climo always favors a SE Ridge in Feb, this is the third year in a row for a Nina. I don't doubt warming climate / oceans hurt chances but to me this is just many different things constructively interfering with each other to produce a terrible pattern for snow in the East. The caveat I will add to this though is it remains to be seen when / whether we reach a tipping point where the warmer oceans favor tropical forcing / ridge / trough configurations that make these conditions more likely during winter. Only way to know will be to live through it, if we get a favorable ENSO state and things still look like this well then maybe its time to re-think. Went for a walk earlier and its wonderful. We can maybe make a run at 70? Just wish I wasn't at work so I could get some outdoor things done at home.

I have to admit one of the best parts of tracking is when we are all collectively tracking together and the storm starts trending better as we close in. I'm on the edge of my seat refreshing the model pages as excitement builds and you can't keep up with the new posts. That and when a storm hits and we are all posting obs of heavy snow etc. Really missing one of those right now. Still looks like maybe a shot at some wintry weather this weekend, better than 50s and rain I guess.

All 3 00z runs had some sort of secondary wave develop for the weekend. Highly timing dependant for where it tracks. 06z GFS for example gets it going to late / North. It's our best shot at something, need it to track close enough behind the initial storm during the week while heights are suppressed in the east, but not amplify to soon / late since we aren't getting any help. Really the proverbial thread the needle setup.

Dang, think somebody needs to replace the cyan toner in the 18z GFS.