RitualOfTheTrout

That last batch not as heavy, but nice dendrites, probably high ratio stuff. Looks like a little over 3 here, might make it to 4. Not bad. Timing was good too, just after sunset helped with marginal temps at onset and I can still get a good nights rest.

Starting to shift back to the South. Glad I got to see the good rates for awhile.

Getting the goods now, best rates of the night.

It keeps tickling me, getting good dendrites now at least but waxing and waneing in intensity. Roads starting to cave.

Same, about half an inch, band is about 10 miles away. Looks like its trying to creep north and widen some too. Gonna be close.

Same, light flurries in the air now. Whomever gets under that initial band should be the stripe of winners, but good sign light snow is coming down already.

Cloud deck lowering, and air is crisp and smells like snow... Damn I tried to be out but Im back in lol

I think general 2-4 looks good, with maybe a stripe of 5 if the front end piece is real and that higher end band hit the same area.

Thats how the storm earlier this year panned out too. It does seem like it bumped north a bit from yesterday, but its still not quite there.

Need a 25-50 mile jog North to get everyone in the goods. Doable with 24hr lead time, fingers crossed.

I'm sorta torn right now between just hoping for a warm early spring and set a top 5 futility season record, or root for a big fluke event. My issue is if it snows again I'll have to start all over in the stages of grief (If you can call it that?) when I feel like now I'm almost to the acceptance stage and ready to move on. Tracking the good looks that were supposed to be setting in right now for almost a month only to have it fall apart is a real gut punch. As much as I enjoy that part of it, eventually I need some ROI to feel like it was worth it. That week in Jan was great, but if thats all she wrote its really been an awful winter. My bar was its gotta be better than last year, whelp maybe not.

If its going to be South, keep it going, Ill take another partly sunny day. Always seems like some NS shortwave mucking things up anymore, would be nice to see one of these dig in behind and phase rather than exerting to much or not enough confluence.

Sounds awfully familiar.... Canadian and Ukie are pretty weak and nonevent-ish looking. Maybe give them some respect after this last debacle. Either way, that is the next discrete threat to follow.

I thought that might be the case yesterday with that sharp cutoff, especially when the short-range models started showing like .01 of total qpf. Honestly this is better, I'd rather it be a full-on miss, rather than having some flurries or something that just remind you all day what was missed.

Sometimes the pattern or setup plays into a models overall bias or particular wheelhouse which maybe allows it to be more "right" for the wrong reason. In this case usually the CMC is the amped up one so to me that was a red flag, but when it's on it's own you usually toss it. Overall, the outcomes across all guidance (ENS / OPs) did show what happened as a possibility, the part I find the strangest is how long it took for them to catch on. Anyways, what a storm, rates are ridiculous out here, maybe 120,000 lumens per second.

Euro just did a big rug pull for a lot of folks.... Here I am looking at this map.. If I can't have her no one can. lol

Is Aaron Lewis secretly a snow weenie.. you listen and be the judge. Feels pretty damn accurate this morning, even if the music isn't your style the lyrics hit through the lens of this hobby. lol

This storm was always a long shot, but its starting to look like this "epic" "mint" "awesome" pattern that this storm was just a precursor for is also a brief cold shot, probably similar to the week in January. Nothing we can do, just along for the ride, maybe we get a fluke, or maybe we get an early warm Spring. I'm good with either at this point.

Obviously nothing has happened yet, but this was an even riskier low confidence setup. There were models and members in the ENS suites that showed this completely missing so that was always a possible outcome. At this point if it keeps heading this way its going to end up as little to nothing for anyone. It looks like the 06z Euro is continuing the trend, even central PA / further east are probably starting to worry. Honestly, if we can't get at least 3-4 inches, I hope it keeps moving away, at this point the 06z NAM we almost stay completely dry, no rain or snow. I'd prefer that, another tick or two SE with that shield and I get my wish.

Snow weenie in me said throw out 12z 3k, now we take and throw out the18z 12k lol

Dang, Looks like GFS is going to just miss phasing next weekend.

Thats sort of what I was getting at, we could have really set a high bar if it was overcast a few of those nights.

Its definitely a hair further South with the low, and subsequently a hair cooler. Too soon to tell if its just noise, or hopefully the start of a series of south adjustments. Im hoping we can at least score a brief period of heavy paste that coats everything so every little bit helps. Its also my opinion whatever "trend" you are seeing leading up in the last 36 hours or so usually continues through game time and verifies a little better if things are improving. That works the other way too, if things are slowing deteriorating odds are it will wind up worse than what models showed.

I agree, diurnal minimum for temperatures can only help. To bad we can't get a couple hours of clear sky to radiate. The last week or so that probably helped skew this warmth a bit as we still managed to drop into the 20s a few nights.

Its such a narrow margin for victory, minor changes in the handling of that upper low will be all the difference. Im low elevation, and generally my yard does poorly in marginal setups when a few miles any direction is usually significantly better, so I have little optimism. Going to take some good rates to dynamically cool the column and overcome warm surface, but wherever gets that there should be impact, outside of that probably just wet roads etc. Unless the Canadian is right then everyone loses.