RitualOfTheTrout

I wonder what is causing that hole, it's been there on most models for awhile. Maybe just an illusion with Ohio getting more being closer to the low and the ridges getting some upslope help. Hopefully GFS offers Euro a hit from the pipe and we get a last minute improvement. Maybe we double totals and see 2 inches.

I'm still holding out hope we can squeeze out an inch or so. I'll be highly irritated if I only come out of this with bare ground, wind shredded outdoor Christmas decorations and a $40 increase in my heating bill for the weekend only for the next precipitation after the core of the cold moves out to be rain. Sucks the storm sets up in a manner where the flow is SW, can't even bank in snow bands to help. That being said, can you imagine what Buffalo is about to get? Feet upon feet of snow with 70mph winds. The drifts will be insane. That's honestly getting borderline scarry with the deep cold / paralyzing snow / wind. Buffalo AFD calling a once in a generation storm.

I agree, other than a quick cursory check its not worth over analyzing anything until tomorrow afternoon / evening.

I usually just look at total qpf after sounding supports snow. When we get closer in time sometimes bufkit / Cobb data etc. Skew-ts are a great visual of the column and lift in the dgz. All the snow algorithms have their issues and work best under a certain situations. Throw in temporal resolution issues in change over situations (think a model sounding supports snow at hour 3 and so assumes everything that falls between hour 3 and 6 is snow when in reality a warm nose punches through at hour 4) and you have a recipe for disappointment. Don't get me wrong, I love to look at those maps when they show a big hit and if I'm in a hurry they are a good summary of what the model shows but especially in marginal temperatures and change over situations need a few grains of salt.

I'd probably just use 10:1 maps from a 24 hour period 12z Friday - 12z Saturday and see what that looks like. That's our most likely period to see accumulating snow I'd say.

I was going to say if those Euro forecast gusts are accurate, easily 45-55mph, it doesn't really matter if you get 4 inches or 1 inch, the snow will be blown around so much any un-sheltered area will be lucky to have a coating. Still hopefully enough to give the landscape that picturesque look. My bar is low, total fail is bare brown ground, even a light cover will do. Hopefully the wind blows all the snow off my roof into the front yard. Snow totals are going to come down to short range models really but if I had to guess its a pretty low ceiling now, 3 tops.

Oh boy that should be fun lol. Honestly though if you aren't coming through until later in the day Friday outside of the mountains hopefully the roads in the low lands will be treated and reasonable to drive on.

Are you back in PA for the Holiday with this one? I'll take that little blob of 3 right over my house and call it a day.

I'm not sure, but the Euro and NAM want nothing to do with those bigger totals the GFS is showing. Maybe its just pessimism but I'd hedge towards lower amounts like 1-3 / 2-4 until we get closer especially since the overall evolution is still changing pretty dramatically. I'm fairly certain though that this won't trend far enough east to keep us out of the warm sector but it may be enough to ruin any shot at decent back end snow. Part of the east trend is the storm is taking longer to organize and is weaker, maybe that helps blunt some of the WAA ahead of it and we can cool faster. I honestly don't know what solution to root for at this point lol

It's really paltry all around, storm doesn't look nearly as intense. Wouldn't that be something if we go full circle back to this just being a glorified frontal passage for everyone? Personally I'd prefer the bomb dynamic option just for something interesting to track even if our area misses most of the snow.

SWPA has always lacked a red tagger for the most part, at least one officially declared. We had one for a couple years with handle of NineInchNails but I think he took a Met job in TX and slowly faded away. Lots of intelligent and knowledgeable folks though through the years and our fair share of screw balls too.

I remember those days back on EasternUS Wx. You did have to know where peoples location was to interpret their posts. Getting Euro data was like finding the holy grail and you always had someone trying to ask an imby question thinly veiled as something else lol. Always the love / hate on again off again relationship with DT. Sometimes I still follow along the MA threat threads as it still has a light version of that feel but you do lose that interaction with quality posters from other regions now and you can be met with some serious outsider hostility which sucks.

Essentially yes, he’s saying the upper level support is racing out ahead of the surface, thus it could end up further east if the models continue with that type of evolution.

Welcome, always glad when we get new posters to our region! I don't think ratios will be much more than 10:1. High winds tend to break up the flakes as they fall.

GFS 12z / 18z today both look good for track to maximize wrap around / anafrontal snow. Also looks like it has the best period of lake enhanced NW flow afterwards before going more westerly. Probably want it to bomb and occlude NE of us vs in Michigan if you want prolonged LES for us.

Yes, this setup doesn't have a wave riding up the front, so good to point out this is a different animal.

Yeah, I've kept expectations in check since it was the GFS vs the world a few days ago. At this point should still be a pretty intense change over with winds ripping too. It's clear it's going to be west, but as you said it being further NW now is probably better for our chances than a near miss. I think we should still manage a 1-3 type event if that wrap around / lake enhancement. Might even be doable to see a 3-5 inch type setup.

Meanwhile this upper trough moving through is setting off some moderate snow right now. Little over a quarter inch right now. Radar has a pretty healthy band showing up. These types of things are our bread and butter.

All 00z models look to be slightly better. As is we would have one hell of a flash freeze / abrupt change to snow. Should be some serious wind too, plus the low position in New York state would give a period of lake enhancement as it pulls away. Captain obvious but if we get a continued improvement could get even more interesting. I'm all for a clean snow event but a dynamic beast of a storm could still be fun.

Yeah I wouldn't give up on this yet. I doubt a full blown snow storm like yesterday's 18z GFS happens but we could still get a progression that's favorable for more than a 1-3 inch type deal we are looking at right now.

As of right now I don't think it's projected to last very long. Low near Alaska should shift West letting -epo re-establish. People much more up on things also think the -Nao will reload and typically strong negative -AOs like we have now bode well for reoccurring throughout winter. That all assumes models aren't breaking the colder look down to fast. Nina Winters seem to swing back and forth, I don't think anyone was saying the cold pattern would lock in until March.

I'll see what I can do.. lol

Yeah, I'll say. We all get crushed vs those sharp SE to NW cutoffs that seems to happen with the bigger storms lately. It was weaker with the confluence with a tad more energy held back which is a nod towards the CMC / Euro camp. It's not clear whether some sort of meeting in the middle with respect to that happens or if we see an all out whiff / cave to one idea or the other yet.

So it was written so it shall be done.

I'm going to throw out some Christmas optimism.. but let's just imagine if say there is an 80/20 split between GFS and the rest of the models by way of having a weaker piece stretch / break-off and get caught under the block but enough to keep it from cutting way west and this beast bombs and crawls just east of the spine of the apps.