RitualOfTheTrout

That would be a shame indeed. I think a healthy and respectful skepticism can be a constructive force in any science or any differing view point for that matter. The last thing you want is a group that all has the same base of belief because that can act as blinders to other ideas. You will undoubtedly miss something along the way. I for one don't believe the planets climate would be a stable unwavering predictable system without any interaction from man. That said, I would be foolish to dismiss offhand that our actions have zero impact, especially on the size scale of our footprint. We may be accelerating a natural cycle, or maybe increasing the extremes of such cycle, or maybe tipping the scales towards some disaster but the climate would change without us. It has before and it will again. In any event, I'm all for the advance of cleaner energy, burning fossil fuels is dirty and reduces air quality, its a fact. Hopefully this doesn't spin up some bitter political debate lol. Back to Jeff V, I don't think he deserved to be fired based on performance, sure he was wrong on occasion busted badly, but overall was fairly accurate. It does seem some agenda was at work, whether that was the climate change thing, trying to save money, etc who knows. I don't think he was in some sort of trouble that prompted the station to cut ties, if that were the case you'd think he would quietly fall from public view to avoid anything leaking out. Anyways, it sucks the weather is so boring this is what we have to debate! I admit I know the Nino winters are usually late starters, but got caught up in some of the late Nov models that were showing a serviceable pattern for snow. Maybe we can luck into some snow before things flip to more favorable, we are getting to the time of year were imperfect setups can work for snow. Until then I'll keep reading about polar vortex splits, MJO, and El-nino.

Yeah, he wasn't bad, just always down played events, which let's be honest, around here taking that approach will prove to be right more often than not. Can't imagine he was let go for accuracy. Maybe he didn't hype enough which then led to the next 10 stories with reporters standing in front of salt piles looking foolish lol

Agree, thus far things have not made the type of improvements needed to get a significant snow event our way. Maybe because it's so early in the season this one doesn't really bother me. If Southern VA / NC get nailed it's out of sight out of mind vs seeing some sharp gradient cutoff of 12in to 2 inches from I-70 north and watching radar return dbzs drop as the precip approaches. Yeah, maybe part of me is a bit bitter from a few of the storms over the last few years.. but just maybe. lol We have a few light snow appetizers before the warmup so enjoy what we get, and hope the cold comes back in time for the Holidays. Right now the warmup does look pretty short, and a solid setup looks to be emerging for the end of DEC and early JAN. Maybe we can score an early January Blizzard!

I agree. I get that models changing output gets frustrating, but if events were fairly well locked in by day 6-8 it would render at least the tracking part of this hobby rather moot. Like tracking the sunrise, baring a catastrophic disaster it will rise and set so what's the use of tracking it. Analyzing panels, discussing what could, should, or might happen are what makes the game. Sure the rare biggies that lock in from longer leads are memorable and that adds to their lore but I think over time that would get boring if it was the status quo. I think folks lose that perspective sometimes, or maybe I'm just an odd ball.

This is more like it... Really uncanny how many storms have actually verified to something similar to this. Wouldn't take much to get more meaningful qpf into our area.

Got a solid glaze on sidewalk and deck. Dog packed the snow down on the deck so with the glaze it’s a death trap lol Glad I don’t have to go out tonight.

Aside from Saturday and Sunday I think until at least the middle part of the month we will average near to below average for temperatures with a couple shots at something to track. After that tropical forcing looks to support some interlude of AK trough pumping the conus with PAC modified air, there are a few things that could happen to mute this but it could also translate to a torch period. I'd lean towards this being a transient feature though at this point. The weeklies seem to just perpetuate / roll forward whatever pattern that was advertised at day 14 from the Euro run they are based off of, if you are in a stable pattern this works out well, but if the pattern evolves a few days later they often miss the change. Even if we manage to waste the last 2 weeks of Dec (I'd hate to have 50s and rain around the Holidays) Nino winters are back loaded and I would expect better chances for Winter weather in Jan and Feb. Although saying you expect winter weather in January is like saying you expect it to get light out after sunrise, not really a stretch lol.

Well if I could order up a duplicate of yesterday and today's weather for Christmas Eve \ Christmas day I would do so in a heart beat. Cold, overcast, ground whitened, with perpetual light snow and flurries, but not enough to inhibit traveling over the river and through the woods. It's been awhile it seems since we had a real cold stretch in November, I forgot the staying power of snow if you get cold temperatures this time of year.

Looks like a band has setup across northern Allegheny county, anyone have any reports? Don't expect it's much but maybe someone end up with 2in

Well saw mainly rain on the drive into work, which was alright I guess, made it in without trouble. Temperature fluctuated between 31-35 per car thermometer, and definitely a glaze of ice on trees in the pockets that were subfreezing. My guess is we probably aren't going to see a surprise snowfall out of this one, even when heavier precip rates set in it probably won't be enough to wetbulb and overcome the warmth in the upper levels. The warm tongue is almost always under estimated on models, I've learned to accept that with all the heartache from when I was a kid seeing sleet overtake the snow hours before it was forecast to do so. Once in a while we get lucky and have the cold hold on longer, or in cases of Miller Bs the transfer happens just right, it's all a part of the chase I guess.

Yeah, even as of now all options are on the table: In either case, potential impacts seem sufficient for headlines, and all zones previously in a watch have been upgraded to Winter Storm Warnings, while the remainder of the forecast area is under a Winter Weather Advisory. It is unsatisfying to say, but the reality of this event is that the current forecast data support a range of outcomes from mainly sleet and rain to a widespread ice event to considerable heavy, wet snow.

That's where I'm putting my marbles, thinking we might be able to get enough to coat the grass, then probably some LES Friday morning. Should be a good look and feel preview for winter.

I remember hearing the Euro will start being run for 06z and 18z too, has that started yet? Should be fun to watch unfold. Get ready for training camp. :)

I'm having a hard time buying that solution, for one I think at best we will hover right around the freezing mark, if not a few degrees over at the surface, and 2nd getting significant ice accretion during the day a peak climo can be difficult let alone in early mid November. I'm not dismissing the possibility of a light glaze, but would lean more towards what the GFS is selling in terms of amounts keeping in mind even the smallest ice build up can cause problems. I'm thinking we see more of our typical slop storm p-types, snow quickly flips to sleet with a brief period of freezing rain, then we just have a mix of cold rain / sleet / mangled flake until we flip back to all snow towards the end. If that high pressure can stick further west as you mentioned, maybe we get a prolonged period of cool dry air funneling in and provide a surprise. Definitely think we have a good shot at some snow on the ground by Friday morning though.

Most of the more reliable forecasts I have seen have called for a brief relaxation in January before things really get going for the last 6 weeks or so of Winter. We probably see some relaxation towards Thanksgiving, but might be poised for a reload as December starts, which would be decent timing. I agree though, I'm always concerned we waste a great pattern during a hostile climo period. Our average high is still in the 50s this time of year, so really takes some anomalously cold air to maintain any kind of cold streak, let alone if you want to see frozen during the daylight hours.

Ahh the Great Appalachian Storm of 1950, I remember reading about that storm. Pretty amazing setup that's for sure... If only I had a DeLorean I'd love to take a "field trip" to some of these blockbusters of the past and witness them first hand.

Irregardless of snow accumulations, with falling temperatures and periodic snow showers tomorrow should prove to look and feel pretty winter like. To bad this whole setup wasn't 3-4 weeks later when climo would be significantly more favorable although I think we will have several chances to roll the dice in the coming months. If I can make an analogous comparison to sports, I think this winter we will have a very solid roster (various indices and El-nino should be favorable) so I foresee hitting average snowfall for the year as the floor of expectations, but with some luck, I think our odds at seeing a couple larger snowfalls this winter is also on the table more so than normal. Not saying expect 12+ every other week, but the ever elusive 6in or greater storm should be statistically more attainable.

GFS caves to Euro.. Shocker lol 12z GFS still to far NW, at least we know now rather than Sunday night. Still some wrap around and some LES on the backend. Had a pretty vigorous snow shower move through this morning,. Put down a quick dusting.

Haven’t been following the Euro to close but still looked west and warmish to me. Seems the GFS and it’s FV3 are inching closer to the Euro but we’d probably still get some accumulations. Maybe the 2 camps meet in the middle. Temps are marginal and it’s still early Nov so I’m skeptical of more than an inch or so right now.

Definitely our first shot at some accumulating snow this season Monday night into Tuesday, although 15 inches is probably a bit overdone lol

Just reading various long range forecasts for this Winter leaves one leaning towards optimism. Looking at the upcoming pattern make me wish it was 4 weeks later.

This has been my thinking, warmer water situated west based irregardless of enso phase my favor a trough but with Nina / Nuetral would feature more northern stream (clippers & Miller bs) but Nino better shot at Miller As due to more active southern stream.

Looks like our first shot at some flakes Saturday night. This trough is progged to cross our region later Sat afternoon/night with rain showers expected. The rain should mix with and change to snow in cold advection after FROPA. Some lake and terrain enhancement is expected in NW flow, and some minor accumulation is possible N of I 80. A better chance of accumulation is expected especially in the higher terrain of WV and MD, though the best moisture is progged below the dendritic growth layer. This should keep potential snowfall rates limited.

Dang... Jalapeno and Banana Pepper plants are still going strong, living on borrowed time though.

Agree, still running the AC.. The warm high dew point nights are really what do me in. I could live with it being warmer during the day if we dropped into low 50s at night.