RitualOfTheTrout

I only ended up with a coating. Driving around last night I ran into a couple decent bands in a few areas that probably had an inch or so on the ground but I'd say 1.5 -2 is probably a jackpot amount. Gotta love the randomness of LES bands. NWS has North of I-70 in the 2-3 inch range. Now that we are getting closer to the start, most of the shorter range models are keying on there being an initial slug of moderate snow to start this event followed by a bit of a lull before the main area of precip arrives. HRRR at the end of its run just for a visual of what I am talking about. How potent that first batch is combined with whether or not we can start off the second round as snow or we warm to much and its sleet/rain/mix right off the bat is the question. This storm is a good bit further West than our typical slop storms that drive up right over top or just to our West through Ohio so that probably lessens initial warm tongue to some degree. My thinking now is most of us top out around 2 inches that gets compacted with mix, and if we are lucky there will be something left on the ground for the next couple cold days that freezes into a glacier.

NWS agrees on the possibility of some decent snow shower potential: SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Snow showers will continue into the evening with lake enhancement becoming more of a factor as air/lake delta-T values increase and DGZ lowers further into the boundary layer with continued cold advection. The 06Z NMM and HRRR hint at a band setting up with a Huron/Erie connection early in the evening...so there is potential for localized snow accumulation higher than in the current forecast. Future hi-res runs will need to be monitored to see if models show continuity.

Welcome! Always great to get more folks from our area involved. Always nice when we are getting a storm for more observations etc. I think most of us in the Pittsburgh thread are basically knowledgeable hobbyists so don't feel like you can't share your ideas. When things look interesting for us typically some of the Mets from the Central PA thread will stop by with some solid analysis too.

No matter the outcome of next weekend it appears some legitimate winter weather may be on tap. Odds probably favor the slop storm outcome next weekend that we have all come to know and love but it beats 70s right? Plenty of time though for things to change, if it was a modeled SW PA blizzard we all know it would change, question is does it change enough to affect sensible weather.

Some snow squalls making their way into Northern Allegheny / Westmoreland now, I wonder if they will be able to hold together. Would be nice to see some snow coming down.

Yeah, after a few brief shots at more normal winter conditions the next couple days and again next week it looks like models are locking into a pretty robust SE ridge. Could be towards the end of January until things hopefully improve. Maybe we can manage to get something before that sets in and even if not in Jan you can fluke your way into a storm so while not optimistic right now still worth monitoring. I'd love to get a cold and snowy January one of these years rather than these miserable Springs of late but that probably won't be the case again this year.

Near 570dm ridge for Christmas day.. All I can say is: Could push for top 5 warmest Christmas days with that. Still looks like some sort of pattern change near the new year is on tap.

Snow squalls / bands were fun today. Looks like one last round moving through now before we dry out and moderate, unfortunately just in time for the Holiday. While we can never roll out a fluke setup or transient cold shot long rang not looking great for snow prospects, hopefully by Christmas we can see the signs of a good pattern locking in for Jan.

I agree, you can pretty much forget tracking any threats past day 4 or 5 in this type of pattern. I am a bit less optimistic about the upcoming 7-10 day period than I was 5 days ago but with fast flow maybe something sneaks up on us. Overall nothing looks to lock in for the next 10-14 days, so expect cold then warm with maybe our best shot at snow a quick thump prior to the ever loathed slop.

That's not a bad look, I'd think that would keep us on the cold side of any storms, obviously subject to change but it will be interesting to see how things develop over the coming weeks.

It's all relative, but overall I think this winter is doing alright. Got nearly 4 inches of snow in November, and now that December is underway at least for the time being we aren't staring down the barrel of endless 50s and 60s with people golfing and riding bikes in shorts til New Years. There is even some hope that by early next week there might be another storm to track. These most recent storms never really had my interest, so I didn't invest much time, it is a tough pill to swallow when a storm you track for 5-6 days misses by a few hundred miles.

Finally completely fizzled out, got an inch in about a half hour at the end there for a total of 3.5 inches. This definitely over performed in my backyard. I'll upload some pictures when I get a chance.

This band is crazy! Visibility dropped to almost 0 and temp dropped 4 degrees. Took me 2 hours to get home. Still coming down.

Yep, it's earned itself a special weather statement: Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 304 PM EST Tue Nov 12 2019 PAZ013-014-020-021-073-122215- Lawrence-Butler-Beaver-Allegheny-Westmoreland- Including the cities of New Castle, Ellwood City, Butler, Aliquippa, Beaver Falls, Ambridge, Monaca, Pittsburgh Metro Area, Murrysville, Greensburg, New Kensington, Lower Burrell, Latrobe, and Monessen 304 PM EST Tue Nov 12 2019 ...BRIEF HEAVY SNOW AND LOW VISIBILITY IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND... A band of moderate to heavy snow showers extends southeastward from near New Castle to Pittsburgh, and then into western Westmoreland County. The overall band will shift slowly eastward with time, possibly affecting locations like Butler and Latrobe through 4 PM. In this band, period of moderate to heavy snow will drop visibility below one-half mile at times. A quick one half to one inch of snow accumulation is possible, with wind gusts of 20 to 30 MPH also creating periods of blowing snow. Hazardous driving conditions are expected in the heavier snow showers. If you encounter snow-covered roads and low visibility while driving, slow down and increase the distance between your car and those that surround you. $$

Yeah looks like some solid 25-30 dbz returns in that: Won't take much of a shift for the City to start getting in some of the action with that.

Picked up a slushy coating that was quickly freezing up overnight. Just enough to encase the car in a icy crust and freeze the doors shut. Now we wait to see what the lakes do, seems like some light snow showers are already developing behind the exiting front. Should have a favorable fetch over Huron and Erie for at least a bit of time which is typically what we need to get those stronger bands.

I think most of what we see will be lake driven, most of the synoptic precip will be over by the time we get cold enough. With the huge temperature difference of the anomalously cold air over the warm lake waters hard to imagine some robust bands don't develop so we know how that goes, some of us will see an inch while others get a dusting. All that being said, wind is starting to pick up and feels a lot cooler out there now.

Anyone interested, apparently Jeff Verszyla has his own little hobby weather site https://pittsburghweathernow.com/ Looks like he posts daily weather forecasts etc. A little cheesy at first but after I watched a couple you can tell he is just having some fun and keeping relevant with weather. Anyways, he posted a Winter Forecast: https://www.facebook.com/JeffVerszylaWeather/videos/1660342644103250/

Not expecting much accumulation today around here, maybe a dusting if moisture can hang around until after dark. Looking forward to seeing some snow in the air though. Either way, tomorrow morning will probably feel more like January than November.

Interesting look for the end of this week on the Euro.. Thinking at the very least we may get to see first legitimate snow in the air. There were a few flakes in the air on Friday early in the morning if you squinted hard enough but something a bit more substantial would be fun. Really nice layout on pivotal to view the Euro maps, hope these free maps last all winter.

Hopefully they both last at least for the duration of winter, the free Euro maps and the decent H5 look on the models.

Probably about time to start a new Winter thread, things starting to look interesting for early Nov, maybe some early tracking. Who has the lucky hand for starting a new thread?

Halloween is really a tossup, you never know what to expect temp wise, could be snow or could be hot.. Makes planning for kids costumes contingencies a lost cause that's for sure.

Hard to believe this winter season will mark 10 years since that epic back to back "Snowmageddon" stretch...

I don't really recall it being cool, but typically humidity levels were much more bearable. It does seem like we go from hot to chilly with maybe a week interlude in between now.. This stretch we have now of dry days would have been great with low humidity and temps in the 68-72 degree range. Still beats overcast and rain I guess. One thing this warm weather keeps the growing season going strong, peppers and tomatoes til November? lol