RitualOfTheTrout

As if we needed any more confirmation this isn't happening the Euro. I think our best hope now is an over performing backend once the cold gets pulled in. Maybe we can grab a quick 1-2 so the ground isn't bare for the arctic blast..

That and most stores will be empty from a people perspective. I think everyone blitzed the grocery stores last night and early morning.

Speaking of the next "game" GFS says we maybe get to do it all over again next week! Still time for it to move south lol

You'd think hires models would have a better handle on thermals than the GFS so we shall see.

Yep.. If this is what verifies honestly I'd rather it just drive to Erie and dryslot us. I'd even take a sleet storm at this point. Plain rain is such a waste. Now cast time should be interesting, but I already have one hand on the blinds ready to close.

No surprise, glad it caught on before the storm ended.

Realistically, Using Kuchera method NAM isn't much further South for the all \ majority snow solution, maybe 25-50 miles? I fully expect it to nudge NW and be more in line with the global models by the time the event is slated to start.

I'm right on the edge, most models give me 10-12 but 10 miles to the South totals drop to like 3-4 inches then like 1-2 another 15 miles. I really don't think that will happen like that, that fall line will likely setup just a bit further North.. I've seen in countless times, 10 miles north of me gets hammered (my Dad is plowing the drive way and I'm using a broom to push some slop off the sidewalk). The 6z FV3 looks close to what climo typically looks like for these storms. The Euro and UKMET are very close, and have the changeover about 25-50 miles south of what the 06z FV3 shows. NAM is really on it's own, but I'm not sure when (if ever lol) you should start to weigh it's thermals over the GFS. Either way its likely way underdone the warm wedge.

Switching gears, nice light steady snow falling tonight.

Even Kuchera is good. Much colder at the surface too, would imply very little plain rain from Allegheny north.

welp... Did we just get NAM'ed or could it be on to something?

Lol I will say I expected more from this winter to this point. Still has time to redeemed itself and a favorable outcome this weekend would be a good start.

I also had to LOL at the 3-12 but honestly with the information available right now it is an accurate representation of the situation.

Watch today's little event over perform and drop like 4 inches on everyone meanwhile it was on the pay no mind list as we all tracked an upcoming rainstorm.

Interesting.. no signature of the warm tongue, at least into PA on that map. Maybe just something to do with the snow algorithm? Will be interested to see the SLP plots. Quite the war we have on our hands in model world.

UKMET puts my backyard in 14in contour.. Honestly, knowing how these storms go if I end up with a 1/3 of that on the ground by late Sunday morning when the temperatures start to plummet I'll take that as a win.

I fully expected to see the GFS make a big jump towards the Euro, and Euro make a tiny movement towards the GFS placing the mix line precariously close, probably bisecting Allegheny county. I guess we will see if the Euro caves to the GFS or even makes a moderate adjustment towards that type of setup we are probably cooked.

The Euro almost always beats the GFS... How many times have we had the GFS look good only to cave to the Euro.. Of course this time it will work the other way around with our luck.

Yeah... this won't work lol NWS will be issuing watches.. for small creek and stream flooding. I just did the 24 hour snow accumulation to keep the 1-2 from today off the map.. Pretty deflating, but maybe an inch on the back end.

Not seeing any favorable changes on the GFS.. actually may be a bit worse. But I'll let it run through before getting irritated lol

I agree, I'd actually be curious to see the Kutchera map, I'm betting its not as good as the blanket 10:1 map.

I'm not trying to be a downer, but your location says Cranberry Twp, you are North and East of the City. If I were you I would be confident, anyone from Butler / Armstrong county NE is probably going to get mostly snow, that's favored by climatology in these storms. For those South of there though where the mix line sets up is critical as always. Until the GFS and Euro camp settle on a general outcome making any definitive statements like anyone from Washington county north gets a foot is not wise. You may end up right, but doesn't necessarily mean your logic to reach that conclusion was correct.

6z Euro

Pretty good analysis from NWS discussion too: .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/... Precipitation will continue into the overnight hours, with most of it ending before dawn on Friday. Colder air behind this front will not arrive until Friday afternoon and this cold air advection will find the trip southward rather difficult as the flow aloft remains zonal. Could see a few lingering snow showers over the north and ridges, with the colder air and west-northwest flow. Saturday is where the focus will be, as a major winter storm will develop over the over the south-central US and move rapidly northeastward toward the Mid-Atlantic. Model are still struggling with a consensus on the track of the storm and where the rain/ice/snow line will setup. Operational models have come into better agreement with a faster track, which means snow starting a bit earlier on Saturday. The whole key to impact will be where the transition line develops. With an amazingly tight cloud level temperature gradient, 20 to 40 miles will mean the difference between minor accumulations to warning level accumulations. Models are also surprisingly similar on snow amounts, but the placement of the snow/ice/rain line remains elusive. Will continue with the idea of using a blend of models to determine where that line will setup. The main driving factor in the path of the low will be the evolution of the upper level trough developing the system. How far south the trough digs Saturday, and the resulting height rises to the east of the trough axis, will be key to determining not only the low track, but also placement of the cold and warm airmasses. One thing that models are not showing on Saturday is a phasing between the southern and northern stream energies. The phasing was also very important on how far north the surface low could proceed, as it would deepen the trough and provide more of a strong southerly flow in the upper levels. This lack of phasing is leading me to believe that the low may track a bit further south then say the GFS, which in turn would push the rain/ice/snow line further south. This additional atmospheric wrinkle only increases the need for a model blend this far out. Its not an exaggeration to state that a difference of 40 or 50 miles will be the difference between 1 to 2 inches of snow and 8 to 12 inches of snow. Depending on how far north the warm air aloft pushes, we could have a big problem with ice as well.

Maybe this afternoon after 12z runs are digested? I would expect some form of watch issued today.