RitualOfTheTrout

Good point, the same variable that could give someone's yard the jackpot could also be the dagger through the heart. When I say jackpot I'm thinking 5 would the most anyone would get. My gut says I should set my expectations at 2, with the progressive nature of this and the fact it doesn't really wind up until its North of us keeps the upside in check. But hey, it's going to be seasonable tomorrow and Saturday so if we cover the grass it should stick around for a day or 2, and if it busts low at least we had a legit threat to track in under 48 hours which is a first really for this winter.

Yeah, all guidance is agreeing on a general 3-5 inches. You probably have to cut that to account for initial melting but not bad to see something improve as we get closer. Not saying it will happen, but the storms that are the most likely to bust high are ones that keep getting better as we close in.

The 12z runs are all done, and come in at varying times starting around 9am roughly in this order NAM, GFS, GEM, UKMET, Euro concluding around 2:00pm. For pay services you can get the stuff sooner but that the general gist of timing. 00z runs work the same, just starting around 9pm instead of 9am. There are 18z and 6z runs too of some models.

Interesting, all 12z (GFS/NAM/GEM/UKEMT) models are showing more of a 3-5 inch type deal. Not sure I buy it just yet, maybe just snake bitten but the 6z Euro would seem to agree. I'll be curious to see if it holds on the 12z run.

Looking like 1-3 based on overnight model runs.

I thought the 18z GFS took a step to the NW too. In this pattern the North trend is real, nothing to keep the storm from cutting if it amplifies fast enough. It would suck to miss out on the only real threat to the NW after missing so many to the SE the last couple of years.

It is somewhat refreshing to see something starting to trend better as we get closer in time. I agree, an area wide synoptic 2-4 would be the biggest storm of the year. In this pattern you take what you can get, but if you look just to the North of us we aren't that far away, it's a shame that boundary couldn't have setup a couple hundred mile further south. Just for a visual, Euro snow map through 240:

It's not looking good for much at this point, maybe we get another mushy half inch out of it. GFS has a little something to watch for Saturday night into Sunday morning. In other news, with the inch or so of snow over the weekend our seasonal total is now at 12.7 inches, which moves us out of second and into third for least snowfall in recorded history: 1. 1918-1919 8.8in 2. 1889-1890 11.4 3. 2019-2020 12.7 4. 1920-1921 14.4 5. 1931-1932 14.7 6. 1932-1933 15.7 7. 1973-1974 16.6 8. 1990-1991 17.2 9. 1937-1938 18.7 10. 1930-1931 19.0 Also, playing around with the numbers, when the 30 year average jumps from 1981-2010 (41.9) to 1991-2020 (43.5 as of today) we should see our seasonal snowfall average increase by about an inch an half even if we don't see any more snow this season. It's been a bad year for tracking storms when this is what time typically use for for storm tracking needs to find another outlet lol. I'm still holding out hope for a fluke storm, or maybe we get something bigger in March. At this point I'd be just as happy to see March torch in the mid 60s all month as I would getting a big storm. I just hope we don't get a raging -AO / -NAO and a cold rainy spring. A slightly moderated continuation of the past 50 days we be awful.

We are precariously close to all rain for all 3 waves. The third one remains the best shot we can muster a 2-4 or 3-6 type event. Looks like GFS/CMC still give us a shot but Euro had the low in western Ohio. As you said lots of pieces of energy that will affect the final outcome and I don’t expect any of the models have the exact progression nailed down yet.

Looks like a winter wonderland out there this morning. Probably about an inch but it’s stuck to everything. I decided to sleep in for once and missed it falling but still a nice suprise.

That looks like the next window for something more significant. We are going to need those waves leading up to it to push the gradient SE, so probably less confidence than normal on track / development of that system until those things get resolved.

I don’t buy it yet. Seeing all those perturbations lead to a decent snowfall does raise confidence but I’ll need to see similar outcomes on other models and more importantly see it under 100 hours. I won’t be shocked if the whole thing is gone at 00z.

Heh, here are the GEFs through 384, P14 says we are above average for the season by Feb 9th lol If only!

Yeah, this would go a long way to starting a fourth quarter comeback, 18z GFS: To bad it’s 7 days out.. we know it can only go down hill from here.

It does look active which gives us more roles of the dice to get a storm with a favorable track and cold enough air around. To this point it's been one of the lousiest winters in recent memory , and while we probably can't salvage the season as a whole a good Feb is still possible and statistically the ever so rare big storm is just as likely to happen in Feb 2020 as any other year. No reason to throw in the towel yet.

I agree, it's highly unlikely the models have this nailed down. That doesn't mean the changes that happen from now until verification benefit us though. It could be off by 400 miles but if its 400 miles further north the sensible weather is still rain for us. The pattern as a whole is just devoid of cold air, its all locked up over the pole with the uber +AO +NAO +EPO. The long range looks bleak now for snow chances as of today, I think the GFS has like 1 inch of snow through 384 hours for our area, that's about as bad as it can get for mid Jan - early Feb. At some point you'd think the rubber band has to snap with some of these indices, if it does hopefully it's in early Feb but the longer this drags on the more I start thinking it could be March and we go from 34-38 degree rain storms to 38-44 degree rain storms for March and April. Typically flips in the AO/NAO region just show up on models out of nowhere so if its going to happen at some point it may just show up and start moving closer in time. I admit to having little skill in the long range stuff though so reader beware lol

It's not really 3 days of snow. GFS continue to drive the Primary to far North and delay the transition. This does 2 things, what precip we do get is primarily rain due to the typical issues we have with a primary low that goes north and west of us that is further complicated by the marginal antecedent air mass so you get the resulting snowfall forecast: Second issue is due to the primary going so far NW of us we get caught in the dryslot between the transfer, so total precipitation over our area really isn't that impressive (about .25 - .35 ) until you get into the ridges and central PA.

I agree, 18z GFS shows what happens if it holds on a bit to long. We get just enough warm air to rain and the secondary doesn't get going in time. Heh, just for fun loop through the OP 18z GFS, epic run for New York state, we get a nice hit too to start off Feb. Maybe we get lucky and the less than great pattern forces storms to take a decent track instead of favoring the east coast.

It's a very marginal setup with high bust potential. Reminds me more of a early March storm than mid January where being off by a degree or 2 makes the difference between 1 inch or 6 inches. My thought is we need the that energy in Eastern Ohio to die out quicker and merge with the main low pressure sooner. That would help with temperatures and may help the main low wrap up a little faster. Both of those things would help us get the most of this. Who knows how close the GFS to being correct though.

I just cycled through 00z / 06z runs and there is definitely support for something similar to this showing up on GFS / GEM / Euro with some support from ENS too. Verbatim nothing looks like a clean hit for us but small improvements over previous runs. Guess I'll be tuning back in at 12z to see if the look continues to show up.

Yeah, it's a perfect winter day out there. Nothing beats snow falling with temps in the 20s. To top that I've gotten more snow on the ground today than from yesterday's "storm". Just enough to take the kids and out and pull them around on the sled and rough house with the dog.

Flipped to all liquid here.. Somewhere between ZR and plain rain now. With the upside of this only being 2 inches it is a bit disappointing but it’s not like we busted on a 6-8 inch forecast to this outcome. Barring an arctic antecedent airmass and a high to the north locked in by a block storms cutting through Chicago will rarely have a better result. Our best chance with a west track to bust high is with a miller B that jumps faster than modeled in my experience.

Snow has resumed here, not expecting it to last very long though. Dog just came in and was coated in nice flakes cause of course he had to wait til the dryslot filled in to go outside lol

About a quarter inch from the first wave. The main area of precip is on our doorstep now with some pretty decent returns on radar. My gut tells me it’s probably sleet but will find out shortly.

Man... I never thought back in mid November when I scored almost 4 inches off those squalls that “event” would be the leader headed into Feb... Heres to an over performer despite the lack of much upside.