RitualOfTheTrout

I always thought those loops were not accurate.. the wave does not travel backwards.. Usually it indicates the model is keying on a different wave or another area of convection which may or may not actually be the driver. My takeaway when I see that is proceed with caution as the already fickle MJO forecasts may be even more susceptible to error. That's not to argue the seasonal trend of being to be amped up in the warm phases and tend to linger longer in those. Maybe the SSW has something to do with it? If so, it would be ironic then that the effects of the SSW may be what helps build blocking to mitigate to some degree said effects of bad MJO phases. Either way, the MJO may be the wrench the ruined a lot of the good winter forecasts to this point, question is why was it able to behave this way?

I won't pretend to be an expert here, but looking at this Skew-t we do have a deep saturated (Temp and DP lines are very close together) through the DGZ (area of atmosphere approximately between -10C and -20C) and we have some reasonable Omega (lift). This is why simply saying oh it's cold we should get 20:1 ratios is not the best way to figure it out. Other things go into play too, ie if we had really strong winds in the DGZ to the surface even if there was great snow growth the crystals would get broken apart and reduce ratios. The best omega here is outside the DGZ so that may offset the snow growth to some degree. Now the next panel the DGZ isn't as large, but it's still saturated and the best omega is within the DGZ. All that being said, given the current modeling I'd say we should be close to making the most of what qpf we get. Like I said, I'm no expert, and there is more than just this trying to figure out the ratios. If the map you are looking at is based on a 10:1 ratio I don't think it actually takes this into account. My guess is the algorithm says, at the start of this observation are all levels of the atmosphere below freezing? Yes, ok then assume all qpf gets converted to snow at a 10:1 ratio. I'm sure its not quite that simple but you get the idea. This works fine if its a cold storm to get a general idea. I think Kuchera takes the temps at different levels of the atmosphere into account at various times between the start and end of the sounding. When you have a warm nose surging northward the 10:1 maps will almost always over estimate snow due to this and Kuchera should be more accurate.

Awesome, thanks for sharing.

Moderate to heavy snow coming down! Nothing beats heavy snow with Temps in the teens even if it is brief. Put a quick coating down on everything. Guess I should have held off complaining earlier lol

First week of Feb looks to be toast after the cold blast lifts out (maybe a little event Friday?) which sucks because Feb is typically money in a Nino winter, but this winter hasn't been a traditional Nino look. Maybe by the 7th-10th after a big cutter goes through we have more chances. I wouldn't rule out a bigger storm at this juncture, realistically we have 6 more weeks of winter, and it doesn't take much to get a big wet snow in early March that starts melting before the snow even stops, but adds up to a 4-6 inch event. I've given up trying to get a handle on what is coming next, so many conflicting looks, enso state would argue against an MJO going ape in phases 4-7 but its happening, SSW would argue for significant blocking (-AO/-NAO) but the can keeps getting kicked. The -epo is to far west, which puts the mean trough in the west / central leaving higher heights in the east. Initially I thought this would be good, we want storms to track west vs riding the coast or out to sea, but we need some blocking to help keep wound up storms from going to Detroit. At this point I wouldn't be shocked in any outcome. I'm still rooting for models to just flip to a sustained cold eastern trough for 2-3 weeks in Feb but could see more of the same, slop on the front / back of storms and a cold shot as they go past. I do worry we go from these storms that are just a bit to far west, to a big -NAO shows up out of nowhere and then the storms are to far east. I guess at this point we roll the dice as the current setup isn't going to yield a big storm as is.

The wheels quickly fell off this setup.. Looks like all rain imby, snow pack that was down is a mess, would have been nice to have a fresh inch or 2 to go with the cold, but I guess frozen mud will have to do. This type of outbreak would be awesome on the heels of a big storm, but this is really a quick hitter, 72 hours of cold. Don't get me wrong, the cold is serious and dangerous if you get caught out unprepared, but when you can see 50s a few days later, no dynamic squall line with a quick hitting heavy snow, and not even some high ratio LES to blow around it really takes the air out of the event for me.

When the threat looked better the front got hung up longer and we got hit by the wave developing on it. Not a high confidence setup to say the least but now that seems to have all shifted to the NE. Hopefully we can pull off 1-2 to have on the ground for the 2 day arctic blast.

It's moving through here now, from the looks of it doubt we get an inch from it but gusty winds and low visibility. Everything has a new coating including roads.

Pretty nice winter day. Cold, snow cover and periodic light snow falling.

Yeah, we really need it to dive underneath us, otherwise southerly winds out ahead will probably push us into the mid 30s, plus moisture and forcing will be limited. The 6z FV3 actually takes it on a decent track for us but it's on it's own for now. Hopefully we can get some snow before this though, I think I'll take the over lol!

Yeah that and Temps aren't going to crash right after it goes through so that will limit accumulations for what does fall I think. Maybe a coating to an inch. Real cold doesn't settle in until tomorrow night.

Looks interesting on FV3 for sure, NAM seems to want nothing to do with it though right now. Doesn't really develop a wave along the front and things dry out pretty quickly once the front goes through.

18z FV3 looks good for Thursday anafront deal. Looks similar to CMC for next week storm, just further East.

Sure is.. Nice progression, cool to see all 3 pieces phasing in.

Haha I hope so... One never knows in this area though. 00z Euro and 12z FV3 both have a storm too, its just well east, looks like much less phasing involved which if I had to wager on I'd lean that way. I'd love to see what the GEM would have looked like had it phased 12 hours earlier...

That wave running up the front idea is still on the table for later this week. Those are notoriously hard to nail down though but maybe a 1-3 2-4 type deal if it lines up just right.

Wow.. totally animated gif worthy just based on that track... I'd role the dice on that irregardless of what it shows for snow totals.

Can you imagine the damage if you got moderate rain falling at 4 degrees..

When the sleet hit this morning it was crazy quick from an onslaught against the windows to periods of heavy snow.. It was cool to see but left me wondering what if... Onto the next threat I guess. Hard to gauge how much due to the wind but looks like 2-3 inches.

Heavy sleet just changed to snow.. Now it's a race to see if we can get an inch or 2..

Ah... To think it was almost us...

Maybe Mike Bettis standing in front of a snow machine?! Lol He did nothing to help his credibility in that Hurricane in NC this year struggling to stand while 2 guys in shorts casually walked through a parking lot in the background.

One thing I did not see was the delay in precipitation. I figured rain or snow would be falling by now. Short of a brief light snow / sleet mix earlier this morning its been dry. That does make the "additional" sound like somebody actually got some snow to this point.

I think NWS did a good job highlighting the fact it was a low confidence forecast while warning of what could happen. The discussion mentioned multiple times the uncertainty in the northward pace of the warm air and how this would drastically effect sensible weather. I think given the information available at the time they made the right calls. The average person just saw the map and the big numbers and went with that. You rarely see large forecast changes right before an event and I'd assume they will slowly tweak accumulations downward. I agree the media rarely does the right type of reporting for these storms, it's more about hype and ratings and the stores go right along with it hyping sales for groceries, salt, and generators.

Nice map.