RitualOfTheTrout

NWS talking about the potential already in discussion: Also of note for late in the weekend is a pattern supportive of yet another potential nor`easter as the arctic air advances into the region. There remains variability among the models as to whether a lead wave can phase with the digging nrn-Plains trough to yield a favorable set-up for PA snow or whether the cold low-level air will outpace the upper trough. Stay tuned... It would be great to get another storm followed by a big Arctic blast. Opportunity for snow on snow for sure if that verified.

NAM showing we get some action from the coastal tomorrow. Probably steady light to occasionally moderate snow all day. Thus far the primary hasn't really delivered for my yard, seems the better rates are staying just to the west right now. Will have to see what happens as the progresses.

Feb shaping up to not be a dumpster fire like most of the seasonal forecast said. Probably in part to the SSW and persistent blocking. Maybe also some feedback from weakening La Niña? Saw that Euro run, to Far East meh.. Next! Lol j/k I love when we have multiple current/ short range / long range threats all going at once.

Snow starting to resume now, some of the half inch I had from this morning melted, temp hovering around 32, I’d expect it will cool if we get some heavier bursts.

That’s my feeling too; should have snow in the air during daylight hours for the next 2 days. Having that blockbuster December has made it easy to just sit back and enjoy whatever else we get without fretting if we miss a storm it might be the last chance of the season. At the end of this maybe you can’t go stick a ruler in your yard and measure 6 because it came over a longer period but so long as we stay below freezing at the surface the frozen ground and still low sun angle should aid our efforts. If we miss it would be more likely due to lack of qpf from a quicker transfer or further south track. The NAM did show a bit of a lull / light precip late morning / early afternoon before it picked back up this evening.

A dusting here so far with light snow coming down. We are really into nowcast time, but all the models still look good and NWS still thinks a band will develope with 1-2 inch per hour rates. Still need to give it time to play out before start sweating a bust. We've been good this year meeting or exceeding expectations, hopefully we can continue that theme for this storm.

I think the confusion is stemming from the advisory period vs total storm duration. They have 3-4 inches over a 24 hour period starting at (10pm Saturday - 10pm Sunday) but storm totals ending Tuesday of 6-8 inches.

Just popping in so I can join y'all for a free beer. Really just wanted to say good luck, we've had a solid winter so far in the western part of the state, glad to see a storm that looks to have a little something ( in some cases a lot of something) for everyone.

Agree, nice illustration / explanation. You can literally overlay that in your head with the snow map it spits out and see how the big totals correlate. Ocean water is above average if I remember correctly, that should really help fuel some crazy rates out east and maybe help us s little too if the stars align. I think we all agree let's max out with the primary, then anything from the ccb is dessert.

6z Euro not a bad look, you can really see influences from the coastal pretty far west but not quite enough for here. Either way there seems to be a consensus forming for a narrow swath of decent totals (5-10 inches) somewhere in SWPA.

18z NAM and 18z Euro look pretty close, 18z Euro actually better than 12z for Allegheny County. Will be interesting if this look holds, NWS might be upping totals.

All good points. I think we should also consider our climotolgy, the warm tongue is real and is usually stronger than modeled so maybe the GFS isn't that off its rocker. Those maps with the big totals were fun to look at and illustrated what "could" happen if like 20 variables all flipped in our favor.

We are like 48 hours out now so really things should start to come to a consensus 12z / 00z today you'd think right?

Ukmet looks decent, pretty similar to NAM.

we can hope right?

ICON is drunk lol, 1.25in qpf in northern Allegheny. I don't follow it closely but I'd be willing to bet that is overdone.

That screw zone will likely move around still, I think if in general our area does well you should be ok, plus maybe a shot at some upslope after the storm.

NAM stops the bleed South, actually ticked back North this run. Still a solid Precip shield over us at hour 84.

I chalk up the less than favorable 18z runs to bad data assimilation due to another crashed weather ballon in Roswell NM

18z Euro South, misses us with the good front end stuff. Overall not a reassuring 18z run across the models. Hopefully just an off run hiccup and not the begining of the unraveling.

It doesn't look great, but it's still got the primary farther north than anything else so we rain / mix. In my opinion our biggest failure option is an early transfer, want that thing to slide just to the South of us then spin as it transfers. Quicker transfer means the better totals cut off in central Ohio then pick up again in central PA as we basically get jumped over in the process.

Sometimes NAM at range can give hints to what other guidance will do, and a little more push from the confluence isn't out of the realm yet so missing to the South still on the table. It's a narrow window to maximize snow with the primary tracking like that and not ending up with slop or a whiff or dry slot.

It was a good run, We have CMC, UKMET and EURO (and it seems like GFS is trending towards these guys) all showing at least 6-10 inches, hopefully no big changes in that track and we can start narrowing in on a tighter snowfall range in the next 24 hours or so. The coastal development not like last nights Euro, but that probably won't be nailed down just yet given all the complexities associated with it and its still a little past the 100 hour mark whereas the track of the primary is under 80 hours now. If this were deal or no deal I'd probably take it and run at this point.

Yes, it's going to be a good run, maybe not last night worthy, (remains to be seen) but so far tracks the primary in a very good spot for us and not stingy on WAA stuff.

UKMET looks good with it's track of the primary, looks like it keeps it south of us similar to Canadian, most of the mix stays south of M/D line. That's my main focus, the hail marry miracle inland coastal we saw on 00z Euro probably is not going to happen based on other 12z models so far today, but if the Euro throws that out there again maybe we start seeing if there are hints of that in future runs of the other models.