RitualOfTheTrout

Agree, nice illustration / explanation. You can literally overlay that in your head with the snow map it spits out and see how the big totals correlate. Ocean water is above average if I remember correctly, that should really help fuel some crazy rates out east and maybe help us s little too if the stars align. I think we all agree let's max out with the primary, then anything from the ccb is dessert.

6z Euro not a bad look, you can really see influences from the coastal pretty far west but not quite enough for here. Either way there seems to be a consensus forming for a narrow swath of decent totals (5-10 inches) somewhere in SWPA.

18z NAM and 18z Euro look pretty close, 18z Euro actually better than 12z for Allegheny County. Will be interesting if this look holds, NWS might be upping totals.

All good points. I think we should also consider our climotolgy, the warm tongue is real and is usually stronger than modeled so maybe the GFS isn't that off its rocker. Those maps with the big totals were fun to look at and illustrated what "could" happen if like 20 variables all flipped in our favor.

We are like 48 hours out now so really things should start to come to a consensus 12z / 00z today you'd think right?

Ukmet looks decent, pretty similar to NAM.

we can hope right?

ICON is drunk lol, 1.25in qpf in northern Allegheny. I don't follow it closely but I'd be willing to bet that is overdone.

That screw zone will likely move around still, I think if in general our area does well you should be ok, plus maybe a shot at some upslope after the storm.

NAM stops the bleed South, actually ticked back North this run. Still a solid Precip shield over us at hour 84.

I chalk up the less than favorable 18z runs to bad data assimilation due to another crashed weather ballon in Roswell NM

18z Euro South, misses us with the good front end stuff. Overall not a reassuring 18z run across the models. Hopefully just an off run hiccup and not the begining of the unraveling.

It doesn't look great, but it's still got the primary farther north than anything else so we rain / mix. In my opinion our biggest failure option is an early transfer, want that thing to slide just to the South of us then spin as it transfers. Quicker transfer means the better totals cut off in central Ohio then pick up again in central PA as we basically get jumped over in the process.

Sometimes NAM at range can give hints to what other guidance will do, and a little more push from the confluence isn't out of the realm yet so missing to the South still on the table. It's a narrow window to maximize snow with the primary tracking like that and not ending up with slop or a whiff or dry slot.

It was a good run, We have CMC, UKMET and EURO (and it seems like GFS is trending towards these guys) all showing at least 6-10 inches, hopefully no big changes in that track and we can start narrowing in on a tighter snowfall range in the next 24 hours or so. The coastal development not like last nights Euro, but that probably won't be nailed down just yet given all the complexities associated with it and its still a little past the 100 hour mark whereas the track of the primary is under 80 hours now. If this were deal or no deal I'd probably take it and run at this point.

Yes, it's going to be a good run, maybe not last night worthy, (remains to be seen) but so far tracks the primary in a very good spot for us and not stingy on WAA stuff.

UKMET looks good with it's track of the primary, looks like it keeps it south of us similar to Canadian, most of the mix stays south of M/D line. That's my main focus, the hail marry miracle inland coastal we saw on 00z Euro probably is not going to happen based on other 12z models so far today, but if the Euro throws that out there again maybe we start seeing if there are hints of that in future runs of the other models.

12z GFS doesn't look like it's going to make any friends in our section of the world, drives the primary into SWPA, so a lot of the front thump is sleet / zr / rain then the coastal doesn't throw much back to us.

Yeah that was perfect on 00z Euro for the WAA, then the capture and and riding inland helped get some of the coastal snow back our way. The 00z op did seem to be an outlier though among it's ensembles , and 6z isn't nearly as good. 6z GFS though finally stopped driving the primary to Cleveland. 12z runs today should be interesting to see if we start seeing more evidence last nights Euro gains support.

Euro has been fairly unrelenting on that idea, and it's been pretty steady with the snow hole idea but it has improved somewhat. If that was some sort of snow max bullseye no way it would stay from run to run. Until I see it get on board I'll be skeptical of anything over a couple inches, but the GFS and GGEM show how we could get a bit more.

GFS and CMC both give us a decent thump from the primary. CMC is a bit further south than GFS with it so I think that is a better outcome. I wouldn't mind seeing even a tick SE on the CMC in terms of that primary. If that's going to be the way this plays out it would be nice to see the Euro show us getting something, it seems to keep the primary much further west so we don't get as much of the front end stuff. As others have mentioned the big jackpot totals from the coastal redevelopment and possible subsequent stall as it phases are off the table. For us to get snow from a coastal it needs to be a mature circulation with a solid CCB and ideally run inland through Eastern PA. That's not to say we won't get some light snow etc but our main focus should be milking as much out of that primary from having it take a good track and die off in the right place.

I'm with you as it's currently modeled. Baring some other piece of energy or something showing up and altering the general look I agree with your previous post that the upside for us is 4-8 type event which I would take any day of the week.

It's still a good 5-6 days out so it's unlikely this exact progression plays out this way. One way to look at it is we really don't have anything to lose. All else being equal on the Euro get that primary to slide east 100 miles before the transfer and we probably manage a decent 3-6 inch event.

Primary is way to far West for us, we want the primary to come up in WV, then sit and spun as it transfers to the coast. As is we are stuck between the two and don't get much. GFS takes the low to far north, if we end up with a compromise between Euro and GFS in terms of latitude/longitude the primary makes it maybe we are in business for several inches. As it stands now on the Euro we are the big losers on this one.

I haven't paid much attention to this event either, but earlier in the day I did check the hrrr and it showed a brief burst of snow this evening and low and behold I just looked outside and it's snowing.