RitualOfTheTrout

I think if we are going to see any NW trend it will be now that yesterday’s storm is lifting out. If models are overdoing confluence associated with its departure we should see hints of that soon.

March can average above but still produce, how many stories are there of it being 50 degrees then a huge storm the next day. Rates will always overcome warm ground and sun angle. You just have to be ok with it melting 10 minutes after the storm ends. That’s why I change gears to really hunting a big one that time of year. Ill also add the blocking looks to reload one more time end of Feb, so first 2 weeks of March might have some tracking. Usually once the effect of a SSW wane it’s not uncommon to go above average, but if that’s the third week of March who cares?

I was going to say the same, we probably pulled off a sneaky inch so far today for padding stats and a moderate burst outside my window now. I do love these steady light snow days with imbedded moderate to heavy bursts especially when it’s cold. Makes radar watching fun. It’s even better when you are refreshing an existing snow pack. I’m definitely one of those that want to keep the snow pack going so I’ll take these 2-4 type snows with endless overcast sub 32 days all winter. As we close in on March though I start to gravitate towards more big game hunting as snow pack retention is pretty difficult.

Maybe I’m just pessimistic after this last storm but this one is still trending the wrong way. Everything is SE again on all 12z guidance vs the previous cycle. Weaker storm, stronger confluence, more progressive trough (basically everything we needed to save the last storm). Until any of those things reverse or at least stop there’s no reason to feel it’s going to come back. That’s what I kept looking for on this last storm and it kept going the wrong way all the way to game time.

Yeah I went out to check the cars to see if anything needed cleared off before refreezing and noted the breeze. That's one thing our storms have lacked this year is a wind component. I don't recall any that really created any drifts etc.

Lol.. just give me a few hours and I'll be back to form. I don't see any threats after the Thursday deal, going to be weird not having 3 different storms to keep track of, not sure if I'm depressed or relieved over that fact. No real signs of ice here, guessing most of it melted off. Still have some snow on the ground, will probably glacierize throughout the day. I'd be curious after it all refreezes today what the liquid content is, not sure I have the tools to do a core sample on hand and melt it down though lol I'm a bit surprised by the NWS map with 6-8.. That would make up for this last event.

Yeah, I've been reading obs threads and seeing video / pictures posted. Single digits, thunder snow, huge drifts / sleet bombs etc. Not going to lie, feeling jealous. Certainly wouldn't mind feeling some of that "hurt" especially looking out and seeing our 32.1degree downpour.

Seeing reports of freezing rain as far NW as beaver county already on the NWS Facebook page. Read the comments at your own risk though, certainly some gems in there that will make you further lose faith in humanity...

NWS trying to do FB live when they launch weather balloon at 6pm to get current observations if anyone else is interested in that.

Same here, not even a sleet pellet. One other thing that will boost zr is that it's happening after sunset.

Honestly the crews have been out, any pretreated road should be fine. Now untreated will probably get dicey quick. If temperatures are really in the mid to upper 30s overnight I’d even be willing to bet conditions aren’t to bad tomorrow morning. If that’s wrong though then all bets are off.

Yeah looks good, the South trend can end now lol

So the trend with today’s storm was a continual tick NW around 72 hours, this ones been going SE, so just based on putting money on the current trend that’s what I’d say. No real scientific evidence though.

Watch this one miss to the SE.....

I hope you are right on this, I can see a scenario with heavy plain rain that would really decimate the snowpack. Not saying I expect this, but I think it’s a possible outcome if things break in the wrong direction.

It’s also showing no snow with round 2 tonight. I know it’s not a 1:1 comparison but it will be interesting to see how that plays out. May give some hints for Thursday especially considering (as of right now) we should have colder air in place ahead of it, the high is a little stronger to the north and the low is tracking further South.

Coming down nicely right now, I’ll just enjoy this as I whistle past the graveyard with regards to round 2.

At the end of the day all the meteorologists can do is use the tools they have at their disposal. Sure you can apply local / regional climatology and outcomes of past similar storm evolutions but if all that’s based on incorrect variables from guidance used as your initial base state you don’t stand a chance. Thats why you see more seasoned folks reluctant to jump head first into forecasts depicting big events. As we have just witnessed even with a solid consensus it’s still possible to be wrong enough to dramatically effect the outcome. Then your left with trying to explain what happened to a general public that has little to no understanding of how anything in the process works let alone even a scrap of atmospheric science. It’s all a bunch of H and L graphics on a map with pretty colors to most.

I think a lot of what you are saying is in the works. Look into the UFS (Unified Forecast System) Its goal is to use same simplified code across all agencies and allow Private and Academia development too. https://ufscommunity.org/ The other goal is to improve ensemble forecasts as they are superior to a single model. https://www.hpcwire.com/2020/09/23/noaa-announces-major-upgrade-to-ensemble-forecast-model-extends-range-to-35-days/

In theory a stronger more NW storm could serve to suppress heights in the east and boost confluence allowing the Thursday storm to track under us.

And what if 00z / 12z shifts East tomorrow? I expect they will probably tweak the forecast after 00z tonight but the threat for combination of snow sleet and freezing rain probably still merits a warning. NWS can’t flip flop every 6 hours when a weenie has a meltdown. My forecast is for 3-6 and .1-.2 ZR, which imho can still probably verify albeit in the low end of the range.

Wow.. I'd think a lot of rain maybe with that?

Keyword, almost. I agree though it's not like we were counting on this storm to save winter season snow totals and it fell apart at the end. The big December and ability to telework when roads are bad has made this one of the more enjoyable winters for me to track storms and be happy with whatever falls whenever it falls.

Yep, I remember multiple times as a kid watching 6pm news for weather ( I used to time them so I could catch all 3 stations, 2,4,11) with a storm projected to be all snow only to hear the pinging on my bedroom window and that feeling knowing warm air was winning. I didn't understand any of the causes then, probably why I was so interested to learn more about the science as I got older.

Yeah won't make any friends here, looks like it brings the low further north... See if the Euro does the same. It's almost agonizing seeing that bitter cold air so close and not being able to tap into it.