RitualOfTheTrout

I agree 6-10 would be great. Hopefully we are starting to see the Euro and GFS take steps towards each other today.

GFS has the primary holding on to long, so that area gets a double whammy, 1st there are mixing issues there, 2nd that area gets caught in a dryslot as the dying low transfers over. Overall get that to happen quicker / further south like the ICON and problem solved.

Still a ton of uncertainty with this, the GFS and Canadian are good hits, Euro is a miss east. ENS for all 3 have come west, but OPs are still western outliers so the goal posts have seemingly narrowed but we could still be anywhere from partly cloudy to major snow event. Based on everything I've seen and you put a gun to my head to make a call I still think missing / getting fringed east is the more likely scenario. Mainly I'll be looking to see the goal posts continue to narrow. A compromise between the GFS / EURO would probably work pretty well, especially at 6z GFS introduced some potential mixing issues.

I spit my drink out reading that lol. I thought the same thing, is this technically a miller a, or what? It looks like on the GFS it redevelops a secondary low near SC, then as it starts moving NE starts getting captured by that energy diving down out of the Midwest which starts pulling it more NNE so I guess its sorta a miller B? Either way as of right no on the gfs it gets first prize for best costume at the Halloween parade in my book.

Finally get an inland track but only heavy flurries lol. Really though the Euro isn't far off, if the storm is slower or that energy in the Midwest is faster it's coming West.

Looks like everything agrees a possible NW track is possible right now, pending Euro. GFS OP appears to be the most extreme but we are so far out who knows what other changes will take place between now and then.

Is the ICON really worth looking at? I treat it with about the same weight as a single ENS member and don't really follow it's verification status so maybe that's not a fair way to value it's output. Curious for input on anyone else's take on it.

I agree, 6z ens had very little support for the westward jog on the OP depicted on that run. Start getting some ENS and other model support for a more inland track and overall agreement on evolution over the next couple days and I might start to get a little more optimistic. For now we have something to keep an eye on. Would be fantastic to score something even if much smaller early on in the pattern change and have snow around for awhile.

What could go wrong over the next 144 hours!? lol Fun to see, but don't let this set the bar for your expectations.

I agree, if the pattern lasts 2-3 weeks seems reasonable there would probably be at least 1-2 big storms. Probably as the pattern evolves our chances improve, right now the trough axis is pretty far east, even far enough folks on the coast are talking about. Of course a perfect phase or timed shortwave can still do the job and that's the low odds chance we have in the near term. I'd gladly take a couple back to back clippers / miller b setups if we are going to generally have sustained cold in the heart of January so at least the cold isn't a "wasted". Those types of storms are probably better odds too.

Every person who has analyzed the models for a snowstorm has failed, but where they have failed you will succeed. I've seen models take a blizzard away in one 6hr run, men have poured weeks of their life analyzing output only to smoke cirrus but despite the models ability to depress our hopes their strengths are still based on a world of rules. So your saying I'll be able to control the atmosphere so all of PA gets a historic blizzard? No, I'm saying when your ready you won't have too. You'll realize your climo sucks and you need to move or find a new hobby.

The way some of these games go with things happening to keep people watching to the very end sure does make you wonder... To my above comment: This. I can't imagine they'd be able to script these without league, ownership, coaches and players all involved and no way with that many involved someone doesn't talk about it, especially say someone like Antonio brown lol. Sure you could have officials throw a flag on borderline situations but a lot of these also would require the right plays to be called, players to actually execute or not execute so a desired outcome happens etc. The simplest answer here is probably right, the league has a good product and teams are generally close enough in competitive measure that random bounces / plays are enough to result in close games.

I agree, I'd take a 2-3 event like this with cold and snow showers after vs a 4-6 event that ends as rain and melts by noon.

Same, just shy of 2", we will probably pick up another tenth or so with the light flurries / snow showers to make it to an even 2" Overall this was a well forecast (local and NWS) and most models had us in the 2-3 inch range 24 hours out, no surprises good or bad. Will be nice to have a day the looks and feels like winter today, to bad we don't have a more NW flow, with the warm lakes could probably have had a couple more widespread decent bands make it down this way. Afterwards looks like a bit of a roller-coaster ride in terms of temperatures, with plenty of tracking. It will be interesting to see how the pattern evolves and if a bigger storm materializes.

Measured 1.5 around 10pm, back edge band is pivoting through now, getting a little bit of wind with it and some more moderate rates. Expect to end somewhere around 2.25 when it's all over but probably won't get a measurement until morning.

Measured 1in so far. Roads are all covered. Nothing like snow falling in the low 20s.

They are still sticking to 1-3 inches across Allegheny county which would not meet criteria for an advisory (3 or more but less than warning criteria over 50% of the zone- in 12-36 hours). Based on that I can see why they don't have an advisory, whether or not that is what we get is another story. Everything I've seen has total qpf .15-.25 so its close even with ratios. I'm pretty confident most of us see at least 2-3. The best lift doesn't appear to be coinciding with the DGZ outside of a brief window so even though we have cold temperatures we won't see super high ratios.

Got all the Christmas light down and inside this afternoon. Nothing like being outside in the brisk January cold with the smell of snow in the air, low sun, and lowering cloud deck as a snow storm approaches.

I've also noted the subtle but consistent ticks NW of the precip field over the past 36 hours or so, should that be accurate and continue through game time certainly bodes well to maybe snag another inch or so. If the 12z models are NW again today NWS possibly expands advisories to include Allegheny / Armstrong / Indiana. The speed of the system though will still be tough to overcome.

I agree, realistically this didn't have that big of an upside for our area. Seems like most places are going to be in a 1-3 / 2-4 type range with possibly a very narrow stripe of 5+ way further SE. Just getting 1-2 inches though is fine by me, we can break the December snowfall total by a magnitude of 10 in a single storm. I think it's been since late November since I've even had any snow on the ground. Going forward in time, the pattern is at least conducive for more snow chances and we might get downright cold for awhile. The overall trough axis in the longer range is probably not ideal (to far east) but that's far from set in stone as we've seen good looks change slightly in ways that degrade the pattern. Could easily see a clipper type pattern setup for a time (Whos up for a Saskatchewan screamer?), and those won't even really show on models until the short / medium range and track and interaction with the lakes etc will all remain short term forecasts.

That piece of energy streaming across north of the system needs to trend weaker / faster. It's knocking down heights ahead of our storm and since it's not an overly powerful system to begin with that is likely one of the leading causes that would limit how far NW this can go and ultimately how fast it can strengthen. That type of interaction probably won't be modeled very well in advance.

NAM looking better at 00z. At the end of it's run and all that but a solid step towards having a storm vs previous runs.

I'd take that and run after the awful December.

I think as we head into January there will be at least a few interludes with cooler temperatures, but as you mention timing those brief favorable periods with a storm will only complicate the necessary setups we need for a decent storm. Outside of something minor it looks like an uphill battle for any big storms that would produce mainly frozen have much of a chance, the typical cold chasing moisture behind a frontal passage with NW flow or snow to slop / rain storm are likely the more favored outcomes. It seems the Nina base state is overwhelming the MJO, phase 7 should be acceptable for January but just not seeing much of a response in the pattern. It does seem over the past several years whatever the dominant features at play close in on record breaking territories, maybe a sign of the impacts of climate change? December thus far is +6 in temperature departure and +.5 for precipitation (only .3in total of which has been snow). We only look to build on both of those to close out the month, which makes it hard to imagine January could be any worse in terms of snow prospects.

Not that our preference has any effect, but if we could get warm and dry / cold and dry / or cold and wet (snow) I'd take any of those over warm and wet, nothing worse than overcast / fog / rain and the short days imho.