RitualOfTheTrout

Looks like an inverted trough type setup. Those are notoriously hard to pin point outside of very short term. I wouldn't bank on that happening, probably why NWS isn't to excited.

Those maps are not created based on one day of model runs, more like a blend over the course of a couple days with different weight applied based on what the forecaster thinks is important in any given setup. It's happened numerous times when a storm was on the models then gets lost in the mid-range only to come back in some form or another. I'm not saying it will happen this time, but it would be crazy if actual forecasts for public consumption swung all over with every model run. If that were the case, you may as well just load up Facebook and read some yahoo showing the latest snow map from Euro and presenting it as a forecast.

Im with you, give me 2nd week of november thru the second week of February any year. That's part of the reason I'm happy with this season, strong early start and good storms. I had fun with all the events, Winter lived a good life, now I'm mentally worn down and welcome the natural change of seasons. Anyways, another hint Spring is around the corner, the birds. Nothing says deep winter like hearing birds chirping while you shovel snow lol I agree after next week we warm significantly, doesn't mean we can't sneak something in, or maybe we cool mid March but with each passing day for it to be worth my time a snow event needs to increasingly up the ante.

Today should just about do it for the snow pack in my yard, does feel nice though.

I've got an eyebrow raised, but temps are marginal even with a perfect transfer. Miller Bs we gotta make hay on the primary tracking perfectly to thump us, then the secondary development cuts off waa before we slop, and we don't have much buffer vs the Jan storm and those details won't get resolved until much closer. One thing these 12z runs do guarantee though is Ill be checking in more than once a day now.

I'd be shocked if we don't get at leat 2 or 3 colder windows to snow before spring. Problem is without stable blocking any storm threat is even more highly dependant on interactions with other waves leading to more uncertainty than usual past day 4. All this to say I wouldn't get interested in any threat until its consistently shown 96-120 hours. I guess that holds true for a lot of setups, but moreso here in my opinion.

I agree with you here. If there ever was a good month to torch, it's March, at least after the first week to 10 days. Sure, if you are going to get some blockbuster snowstorm, I'm all for it, but a 2–4-inch snow in March is more of a nuisance than enjoyment vs if it happens in DJF.

I do view it on the whole rather than month by month, and we all want / enjoy things differently, combined with the fact even in a really good storm not all our yards get the same experience. To me that storm in Jan with a foot of snow, snow falling during the day, with temperatures in the low teens followed by 2 weeks of snowpack is pure perfection. I weight that much higher than some 4-6 event in late Feb or early March that melts 12 hours later. I also weight a colder and snowier December higher than if it happened in February. I think the other thing is the consistent cold, sure we had thaws, but we were tracking snow possibilities the entire season to this point which is rare. Put it this way, if next November I was given the option to have a repeat of this winter play out similarly over the course of December and January, or roll the dice and "hope" for something better it would be hard to pass up on that offer.

I know its highly subjective, but I'd give it an A. We had a little taste of everything, advisories, warnings, thundersnow, snow squalls, top 5 coldest stretch. If we manage to hit average snow Id say A+

Wow.. it feels good outside. Normally I'm depressed to see the snow melt, but after that stretch Ill allow it. Time to get into big dog hunting.

Those are the key words. It looks likely we see some sort of storm somewhere in the east. The pattern is in transition this week though, so that's going to add even more uncertainty. Depending on timing and track, there may be enough residual cold and blocking left for snow. After the 15th though, I think we probably see a "real" thaw and stack at least a couple days above average in a row.

I thought about it, but Tuesday with the melt / residual salt the road spray will just cover my car again anyways.

Helluva winter guys! What a blast its been, literally and figuratively!

This! The height was only 5 minutes, but legit heaviest snow of the season I witnessed! Couldn't see my neighbors house! That New Years Eve squall had lightening, so gotta give it a slight edge, but this one was pure insanity. Winds have completely filled in any evidence of foot prints in the yard.

Does loom a little weaker than it did, but still pretty robust. Some streamers setting up behind it too for a lucky few maybe.

Niiiice! This is at least the third event this winter with thunder snow somewhere in our area.

We got one warned heading this way, looks like its associated with the actual front.

Best rates of the day right now here. Real high ratio stuff coming down.

Yeah, we keep getting waves ahead of the front, we should make it to at least an inch + everywhere with this. Getting a moderate burst right now. Some hints of a band off huron too after the front.

Seeing there were a couple accidents on Rt 28 too. Probably only got a half inch, but I think sometimes less is worse because people don't take it as seriously.

Light / moderate here. Looks great! Covered most of the dirty snow on the side of the road already!

We've been looking at a 1-2 inch range, maybe 3 in an isolated spot to fall over like a 12 hour period. That still looks reasonable so not sure it's a "dud". Even if it ends up on the lower side of the range its still within the expectation. The more "steady" light snow wasn't forecast until late morning / early afternoon, then we see a lull until the cold front blows through. I do think we've seen a slight push for the better totals to the South and West over the past couple days, but these things have such a narrow area of "jackpot" totals its not surprising to see that move around.

I think we get one more cold relative to average shot. Obviously not like what's coming this weekend, but serviceable for late season snow chances. In any case, I noticed some melting, a few bare areas on steeper south facing slopes driving home. We are getting to the end of the reasonable expectation for snow retention anyways if its a sunny day. Looking forward to the clipper and wind this weekend.

I'm with ya on this. If it all ended tomorrow considering we got the big storm, stretch of deep cold and snowpack, thunder snow on new year's, squalls etc. this winter is already an A for me.

If models were a buffet... I'd take a side of GFS for this weekend, scoop of the UKMET for midweek, and for my main course I'll take the Euro for next weekend. Once the desert cart comes around for late feb / early march, I'll see what I want off of that.