RitualOfTheTrout

Yeah, we are toast on this one I'd say, barring some crazy fail of all guidance. Honestly, it's a terrible waste of potential for most of the east. Outside of some light clipper type systems, I think we need to get past the brutal cold this weekend and see if anything can spin up as it relaxes a little bit.

I think we want that whole progression to happen further north, snow is almost at the pa line. I think its to much to ask for the coastal to be far enough inland to give us anything. All of this of course assumes the GFS doesn't cave to everything else anyways.

Brief burst of heavy snow. Picked up another quick coating in about 5 minutes.

Light to moderate snow, 9 degrees and wind is whipping up. Pure deep winter out there right now!

Couldn't have asked for a better day after the storm yesterday. Deep cold and on and off mood flakes / fresh coatings. Looks like another round of light snow today, probably a coating to an inch type deal. Weekend threat isn't dead, but odds are low for any impact here. NWS take on the situation: In one scenario, the upper low occludes earlier (Friday into Saturday), forcing surface cyclogenesis tighter to the coast. In this scenario, there may be ascent in the northwest quadrant of the low and the potential for frontogenetical banding (highest probability in western/central PA and northern WV). Using a quick probability of 0.15" QPF (approx 3" of snow at 20:1), this would produce ~60% chance of at least advisory snows. Though this scenario is around 25% likely overall. In the other scenario, the trough either does not produce a closed low or produces a closed low too late and off the Atlantic coast. This would produce cyclogenesis too far east, only resulting in a ~10% chance of advisory snows. This scenario is 75% likely overall.

I feel like this one probably has a limit on how far NW it can come. The pieces that set it off are fairly close in time already, so not a lot of time for big adjustments. That being said, still something to track for now. NWS makes mention in the discussion too: KEY MESSAGE 3... Confidence remains high that cold temperatures will persist into early February, as the large-scale pattern continues to favor a strong ridge along the West Coast and a corresponding trough over the East Coast, allowing cold Canadian air to be driven southward. As a result, daytime temperatures are expected to remain below freezing throughout this period, generally ranging from the low to upper-teens. With little relief from the cold, frozen pipes will pose the primary infrastructure concern across the region. River ice is likely to continue forming area- wide, with increasing thickness over the coming weeks and likely impact river gauge readings. Multiple models suggest a Nor`easter may develop along the Atlantic Coast late this weekend, warranting close monitoring for potential snow impacts over the next several days.

Yeah, I am in withdrawal too, I'll do anything for the next storm tracking fix! I would hate if there were some super rare triple phaser and we completely miss out, but I'd also be ok with getting fringed... probably. I will say though the upcoming cold and every other day light refreshers do help take the edge off a little bit.

Morning everyone, hope you all got some rest, 00z Euro had this beast last night for next weekend: Lets see how this one evolves. Get the ridge out west more north and shift the axis west and this whole progression probably happens further inland. As it stands we still get a glancing hit. Obviously all the caveats 5 days out etc, but something to track at least for now.

Well, I've got more shoveling to do tomorrow. My road is impassible still. Adrenaline is wearing off and maybe ready to go to bed... So who's staying up for 00z runs for what's next!? (Kidding, I think)

I'm with you, I mean we all rate an event based on our own sometimes relative metrics, but a 12in storm is a 12in storm no matter what hours it falls. Personally idgaf about official measurements either. I really only care what falls in my yard. Don't get me wrong, a big region wide storm like this one is way more enjoyable, but say the official site got 12 today and I got freezing rain? How does that official measurement do anything to satisfy my desire to see it snow? Heck, I'd trade a few inches less for cold before and after a storm. This event checked all the boxes for me so nothings going to bring me down on it that's for sure. I had a blast tracking it with everyone, and the excitement when it started moving NW and really hammering us is priceless.

This band coming in should be good ratios.

Same, just a hair under 11. No way we don't get one more inch minimum.

Indeed! I'm so glad we got this storm on the front end rather than right before it breaks.

Tomorrow night is going to be brutal. That wind will be blowing the snow around, maybe some borderline ground blizzard conditions. KEY MESSAGE 2... With wind gusts of 20-30 mph and 850mb temperatures falling to near -20 Celsius late Monday, temperatures will drop near zero. Wind chill values have the potential to drop as low as -25F. An Extreme Cold Watch is in effect Monday night into early Tuesday.

I don't think naming winter storms has caught on anywhere outside of the people who work at the weather channel. I don't think I've heard any other media outlets use that name. Sure regionally events gets names that catch on nationally ala snowmagedon. I tend to remember storms based on the year.

Yeah, blocking could have maybe pushed this to another tier, but I can't complain. AO looks to stay strongly negative, while NAO is negative / neutral. Argues for at least a couple more storm chances into Feb as those wax and wane while helping to keep us cold.

Noticed the wind is picking up a little bit and some drifts hanging off the roof. Usually they form on the back of the house, but these are in the front.

Im not sure its transferring earlier, seems to be on track. It will start to lose energy as it transfers, but that's also going to save us from the warm air aloft surging to far north.

There's a pretty robust band in SE OH, assuming it holds together that is probably a couple inches.

Measured around 9.5 just now. Snow ratios definitely lower right now.

The boards did exist then, though I can't recall if it was the old board EasternUSWeather then or not. That storm was what made the detour sign legendary. . It worked again for this one! You are right on the locals being way off. As I recall Dennis Bowman went 6-12 (I remember thinking he wanted to go higher but had pressure to not based on how he was talking about it) but the others all under played it.

Measured about 7 a half hour ago. Still ripping heavy snow.

Sleet has a higher reflectivity on radar, so when watching that in winter storm like this can sometimes hint were the mix is. My guess is as that moves NE it will lessen on radar but actually just mean its all snow

Heavy snow and 11 degrees... Just insane. Didn't expect to have this much on the ground already.

Well we made it, radar is starting to fill in! Think its safe to say: Before we start seeing obs posts, Ill echo what others have said, we have a good group, its been busier in this thread than its been for awhile and a blast watching this take shape!