RitualOfTheTrout

Those are the key words. It looks likely we see some sort of storm somewhere in the east. The pattern is in transition this week though, so that's going to add even more uncertainty. Depending on timing and track, there may be enough residual cold and blocking left for snow. After the 15th though, I think we probably see a "real" thaw and stack at least a couple days above average in a row.

I thought about it, but Tuesday with the melt / residual salt the road spray will just cover my car again anyways.

Helluva winter guys! What a blast its been, literally and figuratively!

This! The height was only 5 minutes, but legit heaviest snow of the season I witnessed! Couldn't see my neighbors house! That New Years Eve squall had lightening, so gotta give it a slight edge, but this one was pure insanity. Winds have completely filled in any evidence of foot prints in the yard.

Does loom a little weaker than it did, but still pretty robust. Some streamers setting up behind it too for a lucky few maybe.

Niiiice! This is at least the third event this winter with thunder snow somewhere in our area.

We got one warned heading this way, looks like its associated with the actual front.

Best rates of the day right now here. Real high ratio stuff coming down.

Yeah, we keep getting waves ahead of the front, we should make it to at least an inch + everywhere with this. Getting a moderate burst right now. Some hints of a band off huron too after the front.

Seeing there were a couple accidents on Rt 28 too. Probably only got a half inch, but I think sometimes less is worse because people don't take it as seriously.

Light / moderate here. Looks great! Covered most of the dirty snow on the side of the road already!

We've been looking at a 1-2 inch range, maybe 3 in an isolated spot to fall over like a 12 hour period. That still looks reasonable so not sure it's a "dud". Even if it ends up on the lower side of the range its still within the expectation. The more "steady" light snow wasn't forecast until late morning / early afternoon, then we see a lull until the cold front blows through. I do think we've seen a slight push for the better totals to the South and West over the past couple days, but these things have such a narrow area of "jackpot" totals its not surprising to see that move around.

I think we get one more cold relative to average shot. Obviously not like what's coming this weekend, but serviceable for late season snow chances. In any case, I noticed some melting, a few bare areas on steeper south facing slopes driving home. We are getting to the end of the reasonable expectation for snow retention anyways if its a sunny day. Looking forward to the clipper and wind this weekend.

I'm with ya on this. If it all ended tomorrow considering we got the big storm, stretch of deep cold and snowpack, thunder snow on new year's, squalls etc. this winter is already an A for me.

If models were a buffet... I'd take a side of GFS for this weekend, scoop of the UKMET for midweek, and for my main course I'll take the Euro for next weekend. Once the desert cart comes around for late feb / early march, I'll see what I want off of that.

With the winds it and fluffy nature of the snow, it's going to be blowing and drifting around too. I'll be curious to see if we get any squalls later Friday night.

If you loop through the runs, it looks like the GFS is progressively getting weaker and weaker for the Sunday thing. Couple that with it not showing on any other guidance and I think we know how this will go.

Clipper still looking solid for Friday. 1-3 inches if I had to guess now. Those wanting a warmup, looks like after this arctic hit this weekend things will moderate. Looks a bit more active too, but rain and storms cutting west will be back on the table.

Kidding.. sorta. Cold would be more fun if we had a couple light events. Had the kids do water balloons with food coloring and we set them out to freeze and then peel the balloons off to make abstract ice art. Running out of interesting things to do. Need another storm before we moderate next week.

Right now the Friday clipper has the best shot at a region wide impact. Crazy by then it will have been almost two weeks since our big storm and its been mainly dry since. The lakes freezing over has limited any benefit of the NW flow outside of a few dustings. Not high on the mid week thing, looks like more of an I70 south thing. Ill be curious to see how things look after next weekend. Some hints we might finally warm up closer to average at least temporarily.

I think we are well on the way to breaking the record again tonight. Already -2 here, with some -10s showing up on weather underground stations.

That model has been doing well.

While we wait for the next threat, this is a pretty good read on what to expect for February: Also, never heard of this process before in the NWS discussion. I was curious why we were seeing light snow this morning. KEY MESSAGE 2... Low chances of flurries will continue through the next few days, likely maximizing each afternoon. This is because of incredibly efficient Burgeron-Fendisen processes in mixed phase clouds, making it very easy for any cloud to produce ice crystals. Each afternoon, this will be slightly enhanced by diurnal heating and destabilization, and the fact that the near-surface layer will peak into the DGZ with warming.

Yeah, we are toast on this one I'd say, barring some crazy fail of all guidance. Honestly, it's a terrible waste of potential for most of the east. Outside of some light clipper type systems, I think we need to get past the brutal cold this weekend and see if anything can spin up as it relaxes a little bit.

I think we want that whole progression to happen further north, snow is almost at the pa line. I think its to much to ask for the coastal to be far enough inland to give us anything. All of this of course assumes the GFS doesn't cave to everything else anyways.