RitualOfTheTrout

Same, about half an inch, band is about 10 miles away. Looks like its trying to creep north and widen some too. Gonna be close.

Same, light flurries in the air now. Whomever gets under that initial band should be the stripe of winners, but good sign light snow is coming down already.

Cloud deck lowering, and air is crisp and smells like snow... Damn I tried to be out but Im back in lol

I think general 2-4 looks good, with maybe a stripe of 5 if the front end piece is real and that higher end band hit the same area.

Thats how the storm earlier this year panned out too. It does seem like it bumped north a bit from yesterday, but its still not quite there.

Need a 25-50 mile jog North to get everyone in the goods. Doable with 24hr lead time, fingers crossed.

I'm sorta torn right now between just hoping for a warm early spring and set a top 5 futility season record, or root for a big fluke event. My issue is if it snows again I'll have to start all over in the stages of grief (If you can call it that?) when I feel like now I'm almost to the acceptance stage and ready to move on. Tracking the good looks that were supposed to be setting in right now for almost a month only to have it fall apart is a real gut punch. As much as I enjoy that part of it, eventually I need some ROI to feel like it was worth it. That week in Jan was great, but if thats all she wrote its really been an awful winter. My bar was its gotta be better than last year, whelp maybe not.

If its going to be South, keep it going, Ill take another partly sunny day. Always seems like some NS shortwave mucking things up anymore, would be nice to see one of these dig in behind and phase rather than exerting to much or not enough confluence.

Sounds awfully familiar.... Canadian and Ukie are pretty weak and nonevent-ish looking. Maybe give them some respect after this last debacle. Either way, that is the next discrete threat to follow.

I thought that might be the case yesterday with that sharp cutoff, especially when the short-range models started showing like .01 of total qpf. Honestly this is better, I'd rather it be a full-on miss, rather than having some flurries or something that just remind you all day what was missed.

Sometimes the pattern or setup plays into a models overall bias or particular wheelhouse which maybe allows it to be more "right" for the wrong reason. In this case usually the CMC is the amped up one so to me that was a red flag, but when it's on it's own you usually toss it. Overall, the outcomes across all guidance (ENS / OPs) did show what happened as a possibility, the part I find the strangest is how long it took for them to catch on. Anyways, what a storm, rates are ridiculous out here, maybe 120,000 lumens per second.

Euro just did a big rug pull for a lot of folks.... Here I am looking at this map.. If I can't have her no one can. lol

Is Aaron Lewis secretly a snow weenie.. you listen and be the judge. Feels pretty damn accurate this morning, even if the music isn't your style the lyrics hit through the lens of this hobby. lol

This storm was always a long shot, but its starting to look like this "epic" "mint" "awesome" pattern that this storm was just a precursor for is also a brief cold shot, probably similar to the week in January. Nothing we can do, just along for the ride, maybe we get a fluke, or maybe we get an early warm Spring. I'm good with either at this point.

Obviously nothing has happened yet, but this was an even riskier low confidence setup. There were models and members in the ENS suites that showed this completely missing so that was always a possible outcome. At this point if it keeps heading this way its going to end up as little to nothing for anyone. It looks like the 06z Euro is continuing the trend, even central PA / further east are probably starting to worry. Honestly, if we can't get at least 3-4 inches, I hope it keeps moving away, at this point the 06z NAM we almost stay completely dry, no rain or snow. I'd prefer that, another tick or two SE with that shield and I get my wish.

Snow weenie in me said throw out 12z 3k, now we take and throw out the18z 12k lol

Dang, Looks like GFS is going to just miss phasing next weekend.

Thats sort of what I was getting at, we could have really set a high bar if it was overcast a few of those nights.

Its definitely a hair further South with the low, and subsequently a hair cooler. Too soon to tell if its just noise, or hopefully the start of a series of south adjustments. Im hoping we can at least score a brief period of heavy paste that coats everything so every little bit helps. Its also my opinion whatever "trend" you are seeing leading up in the last 36 hours or so usually continues through game time and verifies a little better if things are improving. That works the other way too, if things are slowing deteriorating odds are it will wind up worse than what models showed.

I agree, diurnal minimum for temperatures can only help. To bad we can't get a couple hours of clear sky to radiate. The last week or so that probably helped skew this warmth a bit as we still managed to drop into the 20s a few nights.

Its such a narrow margin for victory, minor changes in the handling of that upper low will be all the difference. Im low elevation, and generally my yard does poorly in marginal setups when a few miles any direction is usually significantly better, so I have little optimism. Going to take some good rates to dynamically cool the column and overcome warm surface, but wherever gets that there should be impact, outside of that probably just wet roads etc. Unless the Canadian is right then everyone loses.

Its been consistent with doing that in some form. Looping back through the previous runs that SWPA warm tongue / dryslot signal is on display. Crazy the difference in solutions right now on the models.

NWS with a good discussion in the uncertainty: .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... KEY MESSAGES: - The next potential system will impact the region late Monday into Tuesday, with a range of potential winter weather- related impacts. --------------------------------------------------------------- The cut-off low will develop a coupled surface low over the Mississippi Valley early Monday. As the cut-off draws eastward, it will attempt to re-phase into zonal flow over our area Monday night through Tuesday. In all likelihood, the system will start as rain late Monday. From there, the details get dicey. The strength of the cut-off low will determine various aspects of the surface low behavior. This could play out as a couple scenarios over the forecast area. 1) The upper-low is weaker and phases more rapidly into zonal flow. This would act to keep the surface low track more progressive and farther to the south. Coastal low development would then dominate into Tuesday morning. Because the low track would be farther away, local northerly flow would be weaker. This would lessen the magnitude of cold and dry advection around the backside of the system. An area of frontogenesis is possible, centered over northern West Virginia on the northwest side of the low, though temperatures would likely be too warm to result in snowfall. This solution would result in mostly rain across the area with a lower probability of appreciable snow accumulation. This is reflective of the NBM 10th percentile, where totals amount to zero across the lowlands with a light accumulation for the ridges. 2) The upper low is stronger and slower to re-phase into zonal flow. Though subtle, this would affect surface low behavior and the eventual coastal low development. Under this scenario, ensembles indicate the surface low has a tendency to pull back and collocate under the upper low before the coastal low takes over. This is important. A stronger low across the West Virginia interior could influence three processes. First, stronger north to northeast flow on the northern side of the system would advect cooler and drier Canadian air, capable of wet-bulbing temperatures further. Second, the area of frontogenesis would more likely be in an area that is cold enough to support snowfall. Third, latency time of favorable lift increases as the cut-off is slower to incorporate into the upper flow. These factors could lean towards snowfall amounts toward the higher end of the distribution. Even then, there is still uncertainty with the exact track that the cut-off low may take, adding uncertainty to the area that may see the highest snowfall totals. This scenario is more reflective in the NBM 90th percentile, which shows a sizable tract of 6"+ of snow across western Pennsylvania and the northern West Virginia panhandle. With the spread as large as it is between these two scenarios and still a great deal of uncertainty in track, the current forecast is reflective of some "middle-ground". Though not necessarily the "most-likely" scenario, will opt to continue to trend toward the more likely solution as more information becomes available in subsequent updates.

Yeah, this is a high bust potential though 12z Euro did have me raise an eyebrow.

Kuchera method is generally better in marginal events as it more accurately takes into account the effect of temperature in crystal formation and melting thus resulting in a less than 10:1 SLR. It was designed to more accurately represent what you would see if at the end of a storm you go out and stick a ruler in the ground. Conversely, I think it's also useful when it's a cold powder as it can estimate totals at a higher than 10:1 SLR. Anecdotally, if it's been less than the 10:1 maps, one could draw the conclusion we have experienced more borderline snow events in recent history which is what I gather you were trying to get at with this comment.