RitualOfTheTrout

I think we did pretty good for what this storm ended up being. Can't complain about steady moderate to heavy snow for an hour or two. Given its going to get washed out Tuesday it only being a couple inches makes that more palatable anyways. Lol Any feel free to choose any adjective you can make fit.

Glad to hear it. Lets try to keep this thread civil and mainly obs and discussion. Use PMs or the banter thread for the other stuff. Or as mentioned by others, the ignore feature. Save explitives for things like I just got a f***k ton of snow. We are a small group so in slow times bantering in this thread isn't a big deal, but for me coming in on the eve of a storm and seeing all the bickering / fighting was really unnecessary.

Measures about an inch a three quarters. Its heavy and wet, probably 2 if I had done the snowboard thing. Looks like another heavier burst back building on radar, not sure if it will hit the city or not.

Its nice for sure. Bonus points for daytime weekend timing too.

You are, but so are the rest of us in here. Light to borderline moderate snow right now. Temp down from 34 earlier to 32. Light coating on the grass and shaded pavement currently.

Wow.. what a mess this thread turned into... Cleanup on aisle 5. GFS and CMC look decent, Allegheny is right on the dividing line of the higher totals and warm air might be an issue at least at first. Probably not enough confidence for NWS to up to an advisory. Going to be a radar nowcast thing I think. I dont get all the frustration, if theres no advisory and you get 5 inches do you enjoy it less? If we are in a warning and get 3 does the warning make you feel better?

I haven't had time to dig deep into latest runs. How do thermals look? They might be concerned mixing reduces totals especially if Allegheny doesn't get the heavier rates.

Miller B type storm on the GFS and CMC too right now for next weekend. Should be an interesting week for tracking if that trend to pop a secondary further SE continues. Probably not completely cooked on a front thump on Tuesday either.

Thats actually fairly responsive, usually you don't see comments on the recent model runs that soon. Would be nice to see things keep improving, even if only marginally until game time.

Well I took my outside Christmas lights down today. I've been waiting to get another snow cover to see them but figured I might as well get it put away. So y'all can Thank me when your watching heavy snow tomorrow.

I agree 100% with this, alter any of these variables slightly combined with timing of different shortwaves (all within acceptable model error) and things will look totally different, not necessarily bad different, but minor changes can have big effects down stream. I think folks forget those minor changes (errors) grow exponentially with time. When you are trying to nail down where a 100 mile stripe of heavy snow will hit it makes all the difference even though the 500mb pattern was mostly correct at day 10+. Your efforts are appreciated, even if this specific solution evaporates. We need more types of discussion like this in our area imho. If the pattern ends up similar to what is advertised there will be a storm of some type in that time frame. I think my biggest concern for failure is if that trough in west is really deep, -PNA flexes the SER to much and we end up on the wrong side of the boundary.

If only someone would tell us when we are living presently in the "good ole days". Its a no wonder my brain is skewed as to what to expect in winter being 12-16 years old through that time period. Epic storm in early January, I'd kill for that now. Thanks for that bit of nostalgia, true SW PA bullseye there. I recall arguing with my friend on the phone that night after seeing the snow totals map Joe had up, my friend thought we were getting that much more on top of what had already fallen lol.

Yeah, I'd "expect" after they digest today's 12z runs, a more detailed forecast discussion will be issued assuming there is much of anything to discuss for our area outside of snow showers mixing with rain... This thing morphing to a late blooming miller A type storm with a track a bit to far east isn't doing us any good. I'd expect if we are going to see maybe a little faster deepening or wobbles to the NW in track which would help us squeeze something out of this that would also start today if it's going to happen. 6z Euro looked a little better, but I think we are really looking at trying to scrape together a 2-3 inch type event at this point at best. Either way, outside of the mountains in central PA, totals aren't super impressive, it's not like we are getting fringed on some blockbuster storm here if it doesn't work out. Long range still looks good for opportunities as we go through January. If I had a concern it would be we keep seeing lake cutters on the operational runs. I'm hoping energy doesn't get stuck in a deep trough out west pumping an eastern ridge that the ENS means are smoothing over.

The upcoming storm the Miller B Primary jump to the coast is still there, albeit the primary is very weak. The whole thing is trending weaker and faster. Sure there will be a narrow stripe of winners but not really the impressive widespread impact storm that was modeled a couple days ago. True Miller A's I agree, they need to be well defined and take an inland track with a mature CCB to transport moisture off the Atlantic over the mountains by the time the reach our latitude.

Extrapolation of the NAM, the last refuge of a scoundrel Pittsburgh Snow lover.

You must be a blast at parties.

Maybe that strong Midwest low on the 9th will end up weaker / more progressive too and we can squeeze something out of that in the form of a front end thump to mix to dryslot. Not the most fun storms, but better than a driving rain storm.

I agree, what was Joe Denardo rule of thumb, closed low at 700mb for our area to see 6 or 8 + storm? In my head based on the setup 6 was probably the high end even in the better case scenarios a few days back, but now it's just an open wave that is being modeled more and more progressive. Those are almost always lower vs what was modeled anyways in terms of totals. If this truly does outrun the NS and ends up being only the southern low, the track of that is going to be to far SE for anything meaningful here.

Id say let it play out another 48 hours before throwing in the towel. We've been on the other side where it starts trending better then goes the other way.

You can even see hints of all three jets at play, and with that block if you got some phased up storm (dare I say Tripple Phaser lol) there's a good bet it gets forced to go under the block.

12z GFS and CMC are fairly close in the depiction, both as you said get the primary into WV now vs GFS at 00z was further South. A lot of nuances on where the best place for the transfer to happen is, but that's getting to close for comfort.

Generally the look with the primary not making it into OH and now rather into Kentucky is much better for our chances. At least right now the warm tongue is held at bay but we also avoid the dryslot that tends to setup between the two lows during the transfer. It's a fairly narrow stripe for victory in the grand scheme of things and there is still enough uncertainty with evolution that this could go haywire for us, but its been somewhat refreshing to see generally the same look on both the GFS and Euro for a couple runs.

Probably best run yet I'd say.

Overall looks like less northern stream energy phasing in. If that continues its going to slide off the SE coast. Plenty of time to see where this goes on future runs.

Yep, its an improvement. Happy New Year everyone!