RitualOfTheTrout

Well we made it, radar is starting to fill in! Think its safe to say: Before we start seeing obs posts, Ill echo what others have said, we have a good group, its been busier in this thread than its been for awhile and a blast watching this take shape!

Surface temperature isn't the problem, but to your point if its to warm at the surface hopefully its to warm in the upper levels too. My gut says NAM is over doing the strength of the primary just a little.

Ill take it!

Depth of this cold is no doubt a variable we don't usually have on our side. It is not usual that places in the lowlands NW of the ridges do better either, that probably has more to do with track of the low.

It is concerning for anyone south east of the city, and will probably reduce ratios just north of that. 3k NAM excels at sniffing out those warm layers more course models might smooth over. Its getting in range too so you can't dismiss it. That being said its probably still useful until at least 12z tomorrow combined with nowcast obs since the sleet threat isn't until tomorrow afternoon. By then the storm will be developed and any NAM over amp tendencies should not be a consideration.

I do sorta feel like a kid before Christmas right now. I've been flying high for a couple days. Really enjoyable when things improve, then hold and you get the days of fun looking at models and all the storm hype in the community etc.

This post seems to be ageing well. Given that, Ill stick to my original call for 16 imby.

3k should be in its wheelhouse tomorrow to start sniffing any warm noses.

That storm next weekend is a legit blizzard. Key for us, assuming its anywhere close to accurate is get that phase to happen much earlier.

Keep em coming!

Yeah, I hate when everything starts melting right after a storm. I mean Ill take a big dog no matter what, but if I could control the weather I'd have a hard time drawing it up much better than what mother nature is providing. Cold before and after the storm for the win with more snow chances too.

NAM looks great for everyone! Hopefully we see the CMC and Euro lose it too.

You talkin about the Pens or this storm?

I'm curious to see how he does in the playoff under the pressure of Edmonton. I don't wish him ill, but his lack of consistency and focus is a killer.

Your not wrong to bring it up. Its been showing on some models, even that sref run shows at least a lower ratio area.

You said it, GFS looks good!

Please.. Only slant stick measurements we want photos of is the snow in your yard.

How many times has the NAM at range worked out when we needed what it showed? The 3K is good for short range, but there is a reason this thing is getting retired. Not that it't can't be onto something, but I wouldn't let it ruin your day. Let the GFS and Euro do that.

Yeah, I mean we have a few paths, and they all look like they lead to a big snowfall for once. If something like that NAM happens, we probably get crushed with heavier snow and still push double digits, if more like the GFS, then we get a longer more prolonged event that should get us to at least 12+

Damn work... Had me occupied all day. How dare they expect a full day's work for wages paid when a snowstorm is eminent! I like were we sit still, love that NWS graphic that has us circled for possibility to see 13-18 inches if all goes right. I would expect the AIs to maybe be a bit more onto the warm nose intrusion, they are trained on past storms, and the majority would argue a track like this probably brings the mix but I think even if we flirt with warm nose, nobody sees plain rain, we have a legit arctic airmass and near perfect wall of high pressure to keep funneling that into the storm.

I made a similar point a few days ago, although you dove much more into the technical side. This is why I would rather see total qpf for an event when determining if it's a "better" run vs Kuchera or even 10:1 if you are talking surface maps. That being said, looking at maps with all these high totals for our backyards is fun as long as you keep yourself grounded and as you say, don't end up disapointed. I never got some of the angst people had when someone posted a "clown map" Afterall, where else outside of a weather forum would something like that be understood or appreciated?

Great overnight runs that look to be continuing into 6z. I passed out and missed all the fun, the prior two nights staying up late and getting up for work took their toll lol. Looks like I missed a good Pens game too.

Good problem to have, so many snow chances you can't follow them all!

Probably millions of weenies hitting refresh killing the servers. 12z will be rolling shortly, let's hope we continue to see a strong interaction between the northern and southern stream like last night.

I wouldn't get worried about this yet. There is still considerable spread in the ensembles, and the degree of phasing is still up in the air. While the 00z models looked great for the most part (continued into 6z) to me confidence won't really start to increase until Thursday 12z runs. It's about just as likely we see more changes today at 12z as we did last night, how it affects our outcome is tbd.