RitualOfTheTrout

Neat to see the GFS phasing the energy, really need that to happen more quickly though so the trough goes more neutral / negative to pull it NW. As it is its pretty positively tilted at hr 120. The whole thing is a long shot to begin with, even more so with GFS being the only one showing it to this degree (and we still need a cleaner faster phase).

Same here, really got bright out there and see the sun breaking out. Looks like the "main" event is about to wrap up around here. Models keep the back-end stuff associated with the upper low passage South of us, but hey given they missed the banding by about 100 miles to far north maybe we get lucky!

It does look like the radar is filling back in to the South as the Northern extent is collapsing. Eyeballing somewhere between 1-2 inches here. Not worth getting dressed to go out and measure. At least we don't have to worry about mixing right?

Very light snow here, maybe a dusting so far. Radar looks sorta broken up, maybe it will fill in.

GFS a tick north, or at least a little more expansive on the northern fringe too.

This looks to end up being one of those frustrating storms watching radar returns fade as they move north. Im expecting 1-2 max for my yard. Im sure next time we need south trend it will end up north over Erie lol

Good point, its currently 19 degrees with light snow falling after scoring 3-4 yesterday and a solid wintry period forecast for at least the next 2 weeks and at least some snow tomorrow night. A lot of recent winters I think we would kill to have that.

Looking at 12z to see if we get any meaningful expansions north, this is typically when the slow bleed north starts to screw us. This time WAA being stronger than forecast may help is unless this is the one time its not. Im really only looking to not be on the fringe and have a reasonable shot at 3-5.

My guess is maybe the Euro ticks north, but feels like maybe going to meet in the middle with GFS. Not cooked yet, but starting to think the possibility of a warning event north of i70 is fading.

The view out my window... This squall is crazy!! 20 minutes later... Still puking snow!

It wouldn't shock me if the precip shield ticks North as we close in barring some big change in one of the key players. 18z NAM looks pretty similar to the 12z GFS. Gotta get the Euro more onboard though.

Squall on my doorstep...

NWS thinks those squalls will make it into our area. Fingers crossed! As of noon, cold front has reached the eastern edge of our CWA and with its passage, the widespread snow has ended. In the wake of the front, snow showers will continue in NW flow as lapse rates steepen. ACARS soundings note 50-100j/kg of CAPE upstream where a band of intense snow has developed over CLE. Visibilities have dropped to 1/4 or less in the band, which has prompted SPS and SQWs. Latest CAMs do suggest this band will make it into our forecast area before gradually weakening as it shifts east. Outside of the band, deep moisture in the DGZ andi instability will maintain convective showers for much of the afternoon. Will leave the remainder of the advisory/warnings asis given the potential impacts in the heavier showers and squalls but also issue short fused products as appropriate for awareness.

Looks like some more intense stuff starting to fire up near Erie, should be interesting to see how well that translates down here.

Looks like everything trended South on the 6z runs with Euro being about an inch north of the city if you remove today's snow. Not the look we want to see continue. GFS at 00z was to amped for comfort last night but still looks to be the furthest north at 6z.

Im certainly looking forward to now cast and radar watching and if a squall hits grabbing the dog leash and heading out for a walk.

If say GFS is the Northern most goalpost and CMC is the Southern most Im with you, may not bullseye but will a solid event.

Yeah, the more amped solution I was rooting for can stop now... but damn if this isn't a sweet pass...

Nice winter day out there today as well. Overcast with flurries and light snow most of the day with more on the way. Tomorrow could be interesting if you find yourself under one of the more intense bands in the afternoon: .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... KEY MESSAGES: - Winter Weather Warning and Advisories in effect for most of the region Friday until late Saturday morning. - High confidence in totals for the high terrain with potential for warning criteria accumulations along the I-80 corridor. - Period of convective heavy snow showers are possible during daylight hours that may lead to rapid visibility restrictions and slick roadways. -------------------------------------------------------------------- Rapid transition of an upper level trough through the Ohio River Valley is expected Friday morning. Trough dynamics and weak frontogenetic forcing are expected to form a shield of snow that will be mainly focused along and south of I-70 for roughly the 4am-10am period. As the trough axis exits, steep lapse rates plus developing lake fetches may foster a more convective snow shower environment with favorable DGZ growth as weak instability develops within that ideal zone. Expect widespread (trending toward scattered) heavy snow showers that may exhibit snow squall characteristics (rapid visibility restrictions, quick accumulations) which could lead to tricky travel conditions; notably this ideal convective shower timeframe stretches from roughly 10am-6pm and the incorporates the afternoon commute. Finally, further veering of boundary layer winds to the NW Friday evening into Saturday morning will favor lake streamers, (or bands), that could create localized heavy snow but tend to favor northwest PA and the higher terrain.

I think there is still room for the precip shield to expand northward a bit if the confluence is just a little weaker without really affecting the overall track of the storm.

I'm rooting for a stronger shortwave \ more negative tilt to really amp up that moisture transport, we get that and it would take only subtle improvements on that for lack of a better word 50/50 low spinning out in the Atlantic. No matter what, models will struggle to get a handle on any individual spokes of vorticity rotating around that feature which will have a big impact (at least big from our perspective) on just how far north this can get. Don't want to look past tomorrow either which still looks good for 1-2 inches and maybe some areas of 3 if you get lucky with a follow up LES band.

Nearly perfect track on the 00z GEM. Looks like it's the furthest north right now. Another nudge north on the GFS / EURO would be ideal, but fully expect as we narrow the goal posts to see it wobbling back and forth. Into full tracking mode now, so onto the next runs.

I agree, especially if we can score a moderate event on the front end and add some light refreshers on top it will feel pretty sarisfying after the last couple years.

Tonight not disappointing, got under a semi persistent narrow band. May end up with an inch or so.

Including the ensembles, quick cliff notes is pretty much all options on the table between whiff south and so far north we get warm tongued. Fate lies in the ultimate strength of the shortwave but more important how strong and far south the low creating the confluence ends up.