RitualOfTheTrout

Anyone getting snow? Radar showing some decent returns in some areas. Mostly rain imby so far today, but temp is starting to drop.

I think the point is there are other parts of the board specifically for that discussion.

Verbatim its more snow at one time than we've had in a year so Ill take it, but a clear signal for mixing. Like to see that primary jump a little sooner as we know the warm nose is often underestimated.

I like where we sit, GFS and Euro ops get the primary a bit far North I think right now but decent signal for sure.

Indeed, still far enough out it could change pretty drastically, some of the individual ensembles barely had a storm or were pretty far east. The Thursday storm needs to get resolved before Id get excited. Just nice to have a legit potential storm, something to give a distraction from post holiday return to work depression lol Im really looking forward to the next time we get something to track and it keeps looking better and better as we close in.

Things still look on track for a possible storm on the 7th.

I agree, the pattern is changing, but that doesn't guarantee a storm, but we should at least have some chances.That 6th-7th storm bares watching for sure. Also maybe a lighter event prior if we can get cold enough.

Its been awful for sure, second least snow for a calendar year on record. Its a low bar, but gotta think we do better between now through mid March.

Those ENS snow maps at that range are pretty useless imho. Swing pretty wildly, prone to being weighted towards a few really bad or really big hits etc. Years past these maps did show more, but it's not like they ever verified then either. They did correct some bad bias'es that made them lean more snowy, so that's at least part of it. Only thing you can really glean is that at least as of that run, the pattern *may* be conducive for above average snow for the month of January. If its bad I wouldn't lose sleep over it, and if it looked great I wouldn't be teeing up the "It's Happening" Gif either...

Pattern changes are chaotic, less certainty on guidance, but also usually rushed. No guarantees of course, but I'm still optimistic we will have better luck in early Jan.

Rumor has it its been awhile, no need for details, if it snows we will know you took care of business.

Who forgot to check the locks on the asylums back door? Last one out had to much egg nog and a few patients got loose.

Since Im here Ill take a bit of my own advice, I agree with you, to soon to "cancel" anything. Probably not too soon to debate if the pattern change we thought was coming in early Jan might not be what we thought and it may take to the second half but would that really be that far off from most expectations of a more back loaded winter? Probably not, but those that ride the emotional pendulum with every op run will likely remain insufferable.

Try to find a no kill shelter to drop them off at, but if you can't in this case I wouldn't worry to much about it. Its one thing to pop into another regions thread and try to contribute, but a whole other bag of worms to whine, complain and troll.

Merry Christmas everyone. Here's to some fun tracking and a big hit in the new year.

Yeah, I recall the discussion previously on those. They make an interesting data point, but if they are "bad" it certainly skews the warming trend. I guess you could run those leaving out anything prior to a certain year.

Taking a peak at some op runs, starting to see some possibilities now that the pattern change is coming into focus.

Surprised to see 5 out of 11 of those are pre 1900. Due to poor equipment / record keeping possibly?

I think we are to far out yet to get a handle on that and this isn't a sustained bitter cold pattern, those often aren't great for storms anyways. You're point is valid though, no guarantee we get into a sustained 2 week pattern that is good, it could be in and out in 5-7 days. I'll reserve judgement on that until we get closer, really no shot at anything for at least another 7 days. Get through that and see how the extended looks then. I don't put much time into looking at weeklies etc, but they have been decent for January into Feb but they can swing wildly based on how the run they are initiated from ended sometimes so take with a grain of salt.

Why are we looking at op runs past day 5 and swinging like an emotional pendulum?

Yeah, last year did, but to some degree those changes were in contrast to the background Enso state, this year at least the placement of features generally agrees with what you’d expect. Not saying great times ahead is a guarantee but outside of one GFS Op run everything still looks on track. If it sticks and other ENS start looking similar maybe we have Lucy pulling the football but until then I wouldn’t put much stock in it.

The better pattern look is holding in time, next chance for snow sometime after the 28th. I won't say it's a lock yet, but it would be a pretty big fail at this juncture if it falls apart. Hopefully it has some staying power, it would be nice to get locked into a favorable pattern for the first 2-3 weeks of January. My initial take the ridge axis is maybe a bit to far east which would favor weaker storms to be to far east for us and bomb off the coast, but that could be offset if strong short wave deepens / phases early on. Way to early to hone in on any of that though, but if I had to nitpick...

Same, about .5. Looks like most of the steadier bands missed me overnight. Still got enough to head out last evening and check out some Christmas lights with the family in the snow, so all in all it was a win. I did think we would do a bit better based on the setup. Hopefully by this time next week a better looking pattern is in the short to medium range with maybe something to track. That would be a great Christmas present!

About a quarter inch here so far, next batch of steadier snow about to move in. HRRR showing a band later tonight with a Huron connection, could give somebody a surprise if that comes to fruition.

If sun angle is a concern on December 19th.... I guess to add, I think retention (again relative, do you mean 1 day, 1 week?) is reasonable mid Dec - end of Jan assuming you have a pattern that supports cold and a get a couple inches on the ground, otherwise no not reasonable. This situation, not reasonable, we are basically on an island of winter today and tomorrow in a sea of blah. Take what you can get, and try to have some fun in the misery right?