RitualOfTheTrout

Lets see if the good looks keep progressing forward. Last year they would fade away as it got close to day 10. If it does Ill start to get interested.

Extended has been pretty changeable, but generally with NS dominated pattern you aren't going to see discrete threats with any sort of accuracy past day 5 imho. Something could pop up in the short range. Unfortunately, the overall pattern this winter probably favors NS systems that don't quite dig far enough south to get us with snow, so we get setups like today, or they develop too far east and scrape the coast. Should be plenty of dice rolls though and all it takes is timing a shortwave and decent ridging out west in the right spot for something to pop. At least right now it doesn't look like a no chance cya next year for tracking, and I still think we beat last year's snowfall total, but that is a low bar lol.

Wonder if any of us will see a squal tonight, NWS HWO say some are possible. Probably will happen while I'm asleep lol

This is awesome! Thanks for sharing.

Beautiful winter evening tonight. Cold with steady light snow. Perfect for a quiet walk.

Mood flakes incoming, starting to get some flurries now. The cold feels so much better when it's overcast and there are at least a few flakes in the air right? I slept through it all as well, by the looks of it things this morning it was pretty short lived though, so probably not worth getting 3 hours sleep over imho. Keeping an eye on next Wed too, things have been pretty changeable. As always best to not get locked into anything mentally and not invest a lot of time until you get into the short range and sorta just checkout if it looks bad for 7 days plus. I found that makes this hobby much more enjoyable for myself.

Looks interesting even if snow totals won't be the main story for us. Wish it wasn't happening at night though. low pressure passes to the north, a cold front will cross the region late Wednesday evening and into overnight time period. There may be a brief period of wintry mix south of Pittsburgh before Arctic air overtakes the region. Widespread snow showers and dropping temperatures (by 10 to 15 degrees) are expected between 7pm to 11pm Wednesday. Snow ratios will rapidly increase from 8:1 to 16:1 in 6 hours. Therefore snow character will start as wet and transition into a powder consistency. With enhanced instability ahead of the front, 25J/kg to 50J/kg, snow bands could be could considered "intense" and take on snow squall characteristics. Based on the NAM, the snow squall parameter is maximized between 06Z to 09Z across eastern OH/western PA based on steep low-level lapse rates, strong wind gusts, available instability, and enhanced low-level moisture (70 to 90%) within 0-3km. Short-fused products (i.e. Snow Squall Warnings) may be needed for drivers before or during the morning rush hour. Winter Storm Watches have been issued to cover the areas where confidence is higher in lake effect bands, higher snowfall totals from upsloping, and blowing snow. Given a strong pressure gradient with a potentially closed upper-level low, gusty winds are expected to start Wednesday evening into Thursday with a passing LLJ (50-60kt). The potential peak wind gusts are expected 5pm Wed through 4am Thurs. However, lingering gusts may continue in the higher terrain due to mountain wave activity. Areas that don`t get upgraded into a Winter Storm Warning may need a Wind Advisory to cover the threat of strong wind gusts (46+mph)

Certainly does not look like we will maximize, but for early December its better than 50s. I have pretty low expectations for the winter overall and if we manage 30 inches it will feel like a blockbuster after last year. With it being neutral-ish Enso wise I'm thinking the MJO will be more of a driver in modulating whatever the background state this winter will have. If this early December pattern is a hint to what that state may be there is reason for some optimism. Its likely going to be a battle needing the Northern stream shortwaves to cut underneath as I don't expect much help from the STJ.

Looks like this week is your typical nickel and dime setup. Snow possible most days with Thursday maybe the best chance at something measurable. Should look and feel like winter, so no complaints.

To bad we don't have a favorable trajectory off the lakes this weekend but as rd stated into next week looks like a few chances, even a couple of clippers.

Yeah, and no antecedent cold either. Looks like it's one of those deals if its weak enough to track far enough under us there aren't enough dynamics to pull any cold in, and if it's stronger is tracks to close and the marginal cold that is available isn't enough. That arctic air looks like it's going to be real, no model rug pulls, so Friday - Monday at least should be cold with snow in the air. With an early season cold snap and warm lakes, if we can get a shortwave embedded in the NW flow might be a good way to score a minor event in that setup.

Maybe its the Mad Elf combined with watching it snow on TV talking, but I don't hate the post Thanksgiving period. Not a big storm look but gotta think more snow chances if that look holds.

Check out the steeler game, even if you don't care about football watch that band coming off Erie!

Looks like a batch of what should be snow about to move through per radar. Temp at 32, maybe a dusting incoming.

Day After Tomorrow type stuff here lol. Wind was insane, luckily not much damage other than a missing garbage can and my fire pit got moved about 8 inches... That's a first.

I guess this is a Mr. Obvious comment, but these maps are pretty garbage in these marginal temperature setups. I think it's likely the lowlands see an inch or less unless something really times right overnight. Going to be tough to stay cold enough during the day. Still nice to have some pre-season action lol

Could be a decent LES pattern setting up, not as exciting for us lowlanders (lol) but typical upslope areas like yourself might be looking good in another week or so.

Happened to tune into WTAE yesterday and saw their winter forecast, going to 32 inches. Similar theme, above average temperatures, below normal snowfall, but should be enough "cold" shots to eek out a snowier winter than last year. That's not saying much though, it will be tough to beat 16 inches for the season. Reading some others thoughts there is at least a potential this winter isn't a total fail if some things break right despite the overall above average theme for temperatures. It does look like maybe first shot at accumulating snow (thinking your typical coating to an inch overnight type stuff) Thanksgiving week with -NAO and a trough in the east if this look holds.

Pretty awesome lighting show last night. Perfect to sit on the front porch and watch nature's firework display. Lots of cloud to cloud lightning observed.

Looks like another dry stretch coming up, barring any tropical impacts possibly 7 days. Hopefully it doesn't have any impact on fall foliage in the area, but maybe earlier and less colorful if the trend persists.

I'll take a warm-ish dry fall any year. Really no use for below average temperatures until mid November. I know statistically getting a below average month recently is not an easy task and that's more the point you are making here. From an enjoyment of the season perspective though nothing wrong with mid 70s, low humidity and nights in the 40s imho. My mind is starting to wonder into the "what will winter be like" thoughts now that we hit September. Looks like La-Nina will be in place. Given all the hype about last winter and all the great "looks", without much scientific backing I'd still give it equal chances of being snowier this winter than last (which isn't a high bar lol).

Definitely winter storm type cutoff. Would have been awful if it was snow lol. Hopefully its evening things out in terms of relieving the drought conditions area wide, I got a good bit of rain Tuesday so not mad this is a miss.

Got some gusty winds and pea to marble sized hail earlier today. Not a lot of thunder or lightning. Wonder if round two holds together or weakens once it crosses the areas from earlier today.

I dont disagree this hasn't quite been "historic heat" per se, but given we are getting it in mid June vs July and August which is more typical plus the duration still makes this a rather unusual setup. If this setup reoccurs later in July or August Id bet we get upper 90s. Of course cloud cover / storm development also threw a wrench in the forecast. Just like in winter, you dont always maximize a great pattern for a big storm I guess.

No doubt non standardized & less accurate equipment combined with varying procedures and changes in sensor location make over analyzing past data older than 30 years for comparison to today's readings a fool's errand. It would be interesting if some of those older technologies were run synchronously with the new technology to see the differences and provide solid data that would be hard to refute. In any case, the trend over the last 30 years is higher temperatures, no way to sugar coat that. For our sakes, let's hope the current period is perhaps a combination of constructively interfering factors all adding to more pronounced warming in the overall trend and not the beginning of the last chance to avoid any tipping points. Anyone caught in those storms out there today? Plenty of fuel, NWS makes mention of strong winds as the biggest hazard, curious how that is materializing in the strongest cells.