RitualOfTheTrout

Ill say.. Amazing storm. Doubtful we ever see something of that magnitude again in our lifetime but possible a smaller storm could still produce locally similar results. Heck of a blizzard taking shape out west.

There’s a reason winters like that are memorable; they are rare. Your not going to have record breaking seasons every year and if that’s your bar you’ll be disappointed frequently. It was a great winter, March looking warmer but not all that unexpected once the SSW effects fade. Still will probably have some shots at snow. Some data indicates blocking is favored following a predominantly -AO / NAO winter so something positive to see if that pans out next season. Seems weird not having to check the models daily but whatever happens with regards to snow hopefully we will have some thunderstorms to track soon.

Looking at the 3k NAM the city gets about .1 -.15 qpf, so yeah if you can manage 10:1 ratios I think that's a reasonable ceiling. Further NE of the city you get the more qpf and should be less warm air so those areas should do slightly better.

It's really been a solid deep winter feel this month so far. No matter what happens going forward this goes in my book as a great winter. Started December 1st, big storm mid December, White Christmas, No real torch periods through January, then February with the prolonged stretch of snow cover and cold days. Multiple 4-5in snow events sprinkled through the season with multiple days of at least some snow in the air and we will finish at least a foot over average. Can't draw one up much better than that and still a shot possible for some March magic.

Crisp 24 degrees tonight with light snow falling again tonight. Nice night for a walk. Should make for another nice scene tomorrow, I love how fresh snow sparkles in the early morning.

Looks like NWS trimmed down any accumulations for tonight too now. Tomorrow still a shot at some snow showers so we will see if anyone gets lucky. Not worth analyzing anything for next Friday imho other than just quick glance to see if it’s still somewhere on the map for the next couple days. Monday looks like rain /snow mix at best right now unless all your eggs are in the CMC basket.

Euro nailed this one for my yard. It showed about an inch or less and that’s what I ended up with. Will have to see what happens once the winds back to W /NW later today and through the day tomorrow. Won’t take much for that to beat this storm.

Yeah I don't think I saw any models snow before midnight at the earliest. Probably doesn't mean much but can't hurt right? I think usually the WAA snow starts faster than modeled most of the time.

Gotcha, yeah that would make all the difference. NWS has a page with all the definitions / criteria for our area for all the different headlines they issue: https://www.weather.gov/pbz/winterterms

Nothing to add outside what has already been said for the upcoming event. On a side note, took a walk late this morning and it was in the teens, but the sun was out. I could feel the warmth through all the layers and the cold air, even saw some areas of snow melting. Snow pack retention portion of the season is nearly at an end. It's been great having all these days below freezing and overcast. It's nice only having to dry the dogs paws off from some melted snow rather than trying to clean mud when they come in and out. March has to be my least favorite month aside from it being cutoff low season which can produce some interesting storms. Outside of something special its really a blah month.

This is the criteria for an advisory: A winter storm event (sleet, snow, freezing rain, snow and blowing snow, or a combination of events) is expected to meet or exceed local winter weather advisory criteria in the next 12 to 36 hours but stay below warning criteria. Criteria for snow is 4 inches or more in 12 hours or less covering at least 50 percent of the zone or encompassing most of the population. Use "mid-point" of snowfall range to trigger advisory (i.e 2 to 5 inches of snow = advisory). Criteria for ice is any ice accumulation less than 1/2 inch over at least 50 percent of the zone or encompassing most of the population. Winter Weather Advisory can also be issued for black ice. This is optional. Given the significant NW cutoff will create a steep gradient that will bisect Allegheny county I wouldn't be confident that 50 percent of the county sees 4 inches or more based on current guidance would you? Now my understanding is these rules aren't absolute, they can for example take into account time of day (evening / morning commute) or be more likely to issue an advisory for the first snow of a season etc. Based on the text in the discussion and the fact we probably see the biggest amounts overnight into the morning commute and it's likely the city gets at least 3 inches they will probably expand to include Allegheny unless as we draw closer the short term models lower totals further. I don't get all riled up over what the NWS posts for any area in terms of warning / advisory etc. It doesn't affect what we actually get and usually they err on the side of issuing something to raise awareness over doing nothing.

Also of note, from a quick glance it looks like all the 6z runs at least halted the South trend, if not a very minor subtle improvement. I don't think it would take much to increase the qpf a bit more on the NW edge with a few slight adjustments. f we can squeeze another 5in or more storm out of this that would be a win. Overall it looks like the bigger totals out east are also coming down somewhat, where the good qpf is it's also mixy so..

The trend continues 00z GFS.

It tries to calculate based on temperature at various levels, in a borderline scenario it would likely give you a truer outcome as it will assume less than 10:1 or if it's colder it would assume higher ratio. It also tries to take into account melting / compaction as you mentioned. Here's a good read from pivotal about the slr calculations: https://home.pivotalweather.com/guides/snowfall Snow maps are also flawed in that they use the temperature at a given forecast period then assume all qpf that falls after it will have the same conditions until the next interval. So image hour 3 all layers are below zero, then hour 4 850 goes above but the next interval isn't until hour 6, your going to have 2 hours of qpf assumed snow that is a mix.

18z Euro is ugly, 1-2 inches tops. I agree the South trend needs to stop, all the models have gone further and further in that direction consistently one run to the next. Another move like that in the Euro is partly cloudy skies.

I think if we are going to see any NW trend it will be now that yesterday’s storm is lifting out. If models are overdoing confluence associated with its departure we should see hints of that soon.

March can average above but still produce, how many stories are there of it being 50 degrees then a huge storm the next day. Rates will always overcome warm ground and sun angle. You just have to be ok with it melting 10 minutes after the storm ends. That’s why I change gears to really hunting a big one that time of year. Ill also add the blocking looks to reload one more time end of Feb, so first 2 weeks of March might have some tracking. Usually once the effect of a SSW wane it’s not uncommon to go above average, but if that’s the third week of March who cares?

I was going to say the same, we probably pulled off a sneaky inch so far today for padding stats and a moderate burst outside my window now. I do love these steady light snow days with imbedded moderate to heavy bursts especially when it’s cold. Makes radar watching fun. It’s even better when you are refreshing an existing snow pack. I’m definitely one of those that want to keep the snow pack going so I’ll take these 2-4 type snows with endless overcast sub 32 days all winter. As we close in on March though I start to gravitate towards more big game hunting as snow pack retention is pretty difficult.

Maybe I’m just pessimistic after this last storm but this one is still trending the wrong way. Everything is SE again on all 12z guidance vs the previous cycle. Weaker storm, stronger confluence, more progressive trough (basically everything we needed to save the last storm). Until any of those things reverse or at least stop there’s no reason to feel it’s going to come back. That’s what I kept looking for on this last storm and it kept going the wrong way all the way to game time.

Yeah I went out to check the cars to see if anything needed cleared off before refreezing and noted the breeze. That's one thing our storms have lacked this year is a wind component. I don't recall any that really created any drifts etc.

Lol.. just give me a few hours and I'll be back to form. I don't see any threats after the Thursday deal, going to be weird not having 3 different storms to keep track of, not sure if I'm depressed or relieved over that fact. No real signs of ice here, guessing most of it melted off. Still have some snow on the ground, will probably glacierize throughout the day. I'd be curious after it all refreezes today what the liquid content is, not sure I have the tools to do a core sample on hand and melt it down though lol I'm a bit surprised by the NWS map with 6-8.. That would make up for this last event.

Yeah, I've been reading obs threads and seeing video / pictures posted. Single digits, thunder snow, huge drifts / sleet bombs etc. Not going to lie, feeling jealous. Certainly wouldn't mind feeling some of that "hurt" especially looking out and seeing our 32.1degree downpour.

Seeing reports of freezing rain as far NW as beaver county already on the NWS Facebook page. Read the comments at your own risk though, certainly some gems in there that will make you further lose faith in humanity...

NWS trying to do FB live when they launch weather balloon at 6pm to get current observations if anyone else is interested in that.

Same here, not even a sleet pellet. One other thing that will boost zr is that it's happening after sunset.