RitualOfTheTrout

Maybe the Chiefs all wake up with COVID today? So it's not a Zero chance.

Just for fun I clicked through to end of Euro, and it has a very similar setup next weekend, shortwave diving down with another coming in behind that could phase partially...

Yeah, some of the heaviest snow looks to fall before 1am, then go to bed and don't fret the slot and wake up a few hours later and watch radar fill in, that might be my plan lol. Being east of the city my yard probably needs more of an adjustment.

Well hopefully your bad mojo ends up in a last minute change to a hotel further SE! Erie looks to be in the sweet spot right now and should do well with some lake enhancement on the back end. Can't say I've ever chased a snow storm, it's either my yard or bust but certainly respect your dedication to seeing big snow and hey it's a good excuse to travel.

Lol, like all 4 of us just had the same thought at the same time.

I really hope we can get that to slide SE, crazy stuff can happen in those deform bands if your really looking for 12+

If it was the other way around and NAM was the only thing that looked good we'd toss it. I'm not going to worry until other models show the same, or radar looks like the NAM.

Everything looks as good as can be expected based on the concerns (dryslot / mid level warmth) which won't be known until game time. It would be nice to see those become less pronounced on short term models as we get closer.

Pretty much all models show that dryslot feature, where exactly it ends up and how extreme yet to be determined.

How many times the NAM has given false hope on a positive outcome, if it scores a coop on that extreme dryslot solution.... I say we DDOS the super computer it runs on lol

Lol, Right!? I noticed that little dot there and thought hey I'll take it. Guess that would qualify under the "Locally higher amounts you see in the discussions"

A little better than 00z though, appears this run it's killing off the secondary low a little faster so less influence of the dryslot. Amounts fall right into the 8-12 in range too. I still can't believe what a long track this storm has been,usually we see a storm 5-6 days out and it looks good for a day or two then it's gone or its waffling all over and we sweat bullets until the first flakes fall. At least for me, right now, this is one of the more enjoyable storms, we have some wiggle room, the tracking has been satisfying, and it looks to stay cold after the storm. Obviously nothing has actually happened yet so not trying to spike any footballs but just a reminder, don't forget to take a step back from the computer screen and just enjoy the moment. The time leading up to storm almost has a special aura about it, like Christmas Eve as a kid or something.

I'm with you on that lol, but it's not the lousy model it used to be. It's had several upgrades and does pretty well on scoring at least at 500mb. The reason it looks so good the dryslot issues stay well south and east and it hammers us in the deform band the GFS and Euro have further NW. So from that perspective it probably represents our high bar if everything works out perfectly.

GFS / Euro are still the way go to until tomorrow 12z,after that we are getting into 24-36 hours of onset so short range models start to gain skill. To much anxiety started brewing from looking at short term models at the end of the runs. Not to say they don't sometimes sniff something out, but until agreement with other guidance no reason to get down on this storm. Definitely looks like light snow on and off Monday. Should get a good flow off the lakes + wrap around + NWS mentioned of a secondary trough moving through should = that post storm snow globe look.

Probably the NAM over doing mid level warmth. NAM clearly has that dual low structure and that's only going to exacerbate funneling warm air in if it hangs on to long. Either way, I wouldn't put much weight on that being its 60+ hours on the NAM. Half the time I think it shouldn't really even run past 24hrs.

Yeah, that look is starting to irritate me, that needs to die off quicker / further south, or just shift the whole mess east and move the nice deform band in eastern OH over us. If we finally get a decent shot from a storm coming up out of the South and some convoluted delayed messy transfer puts us in some localized shaft zone that will make waiting another 20 years for an inland runner all the more painful. Still plenty of time for minor changes that could improve that situation, and verbatim the area affected by that probably still gets at least 6, but you never know how that's going to play out and I'd rather it just be one of the negative variables that gets removed.

I'm sure its based of of multiple models / ensembles that they weight based on experience and what previous analogs to similar storms look like.

I agree, that is probably overdone at this point but that feature is on all models. I've been thinking now I'd rather the storm slip SE and sweat the edge of the deform band and have that slide into central pa. It would be cruel and unusual punishment if we finally get a good overall track but end up with 3 inches while areas 75 miles either direction get a foot lol

It drives the low right up into CNY which gives us a favorable NW flow with a connection to Lake Huron from what I can see, while a little piece of energy ripples through on Monday, another words probably would be a cold / overcast day with persistent light snow. Perfect way to end a Storm.

The agreement among the models right now is really solid in terms of track (pending Euro). Starting to get cautiously optimistic, if we are still looking good tomorrow at this time confidence really starts to go up and I'd think Winter Storm Watches go up as well. Even the ICON isn't that far off and really it's solution can't be discounted at this point. GEFS still East, but maybe something with their outdated physics vs GFS OP is getting exploited with this particular setup, either we are getting to the end of ENS usefulness but it would still be nice to see them "catch up" to the operational and other ENS suites.

Yes, I agree very similar. I kept toggling back and forth to previous run, if anything maybe it was a little slower. That dryslot is still precariously close, but that won't have any chance of getting nailed down until short term. Like I said before, might be best if we get a little of a jog east so that is more over central PA and even still if you did get caught in that it still a respectable snow storm.

Wow, yeah the discussion I posted above is completely removed now.. That's weird, I thought it did a decent job of describing the situation and uncertainty that still exists. I remember for awhile there were a couple guys (Fries / Booker) that would put their names at the end of the discussions. Fries were always fantastic when interesting weather was afoot. I was at a Skywarn class and even mentioned how much I enjoyed reading discussions when he posted them to the instructor and he was like oh yeah we here that a lot from the local news meteorologist etc. too. Not sure if he moved on or if some directive to keep the discussions shorter / more generic was issued or what. I won't ever bash our local office, but you can see compared to other offices the discussions are usually minimal. Maybe they take the approach of keeping discussions at a high level so as to not bog down the general public in meteorological jargon etc.

Overnight runs all still look decent from quick looks. NWS has a decent discussion on the storm and addresses that dryslot between precip maxes near the low center and the deformation band that we have been seeing. I'm not sure what to look for on that, other than getting the low center slightly further east so we stay firmly in the deform band. .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Broad longwave troughing will persist across the eastern CONUS this weekend and likely through the entirety of next week, bringing persistent cold weather and occasional snow chances to the Upper Ohio Valley and Allegheny Mountains. Attention is on the upcoming winter storm Sunday into Monday. Latest deterministic and ensemble guidance has come closer in agreement with confidence slowly increasing towards an accumulating snowfall event for much of the forecast area. By late Saturday night, the low will begin to track from the TN Valley area northeastward into the Mid-Atlantic and then eventually New England by Monday. There`s been nearly unanimous westward shift in the latest ensemble suites, with less energy diverted into developing a strong sfc low along the coastline. If latest consensus were to verify and the center of the surface / low-level low were to track northeastward just east of the spine of Appalachia, this would place the Upper Ohio Valley and Allegheny Mountains in a climatologically favorable(-for snow) spot on the north/northwest side of low, within the deformation snow band and then wrap around moisture and cyclonic flow as the low departs. However, there is often times an axis of lesser precip/snow, essentially a dry slot, between the low center and the deformation snow band. For this reason, it`s unlikely we`ll be able to provide a high-confidence accumulation forecast until perhaps just 24 hours. That said, p-type is just about a non-issue with this storm given the colder air in place, so we can at least say with confidence that snow will fall... we`re just unsure how much at this time. Latest ensemble means do suggest 3+ inches is becoming probable in much of the area east of I-77, with 6 inches or more entirely possible wherever banding occurs. Winter storm watches/warnings are likely in the coming days as this system gets closer. After the system departs Monday, cold northwest low-level flow off the Great Lakes will likely result in some chance for additional snow into Tuesday, followed by another quick-hitting clipper creating a chance for light snow on Wednesday as well.

Probably pretty irritating with all the self proclaimed Twitter certified meteorologists posting snowmaps for a storm 4 - 5 days away proclaiming the pretty pictures as absolute while being a real outlet like NWS trying to separate fact from fiction and actually inform the public. We are still very much within the envelope where this is a minor event or misses altogether. Models aren't likely to have the speed and strength of the follow up energy which ultimately phases and tugs the storm NW nailed down. That's the feature to watch along with strength of the storm and how far NE it makes it before that interaction happens.

Man... look at that low placement.. I feel like I'm a kid again in the 90s and Joe Denardo is about to come on the air lol I'm sure it hasn't been that long since a storm took this track but it feels like it and no doubt its rare. Euro gets more phase with that trailing energy allowing it to go almost due north and thus further west at our latitude. That part is only 76 hours out or so, and will be the make or break for us I think. Not to get greedy but we do have some room still on the Euro for slight adjustments west. To bad it's not Saturday lol